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50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop

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SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop

Unsurprising score change, just mentioning to compare 4 scoring models.

 

Overnight 1 card went from 0% to 57%, raising overall utilization from rounded 7% to rounded 9%, and number of revolving accounts with balances from 12/30 to 13/30.

 

Effect on 4 EX scores:

FICO 8         -6

FICO 2         -1

Bankcard 8 -6

Auto 8         -8

 


Total revolving limits 569520 (505320 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 689 TU 684 EX 682




19 REPLIES 19
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop

Refresh my memory, SJ, but do you have another card with a > 50% reported balance currently?  This also takes you to 1 more account with a balance, but if your profile is anything like mine that's a non-factor on EX. 

 

It looks like your aggregate utilization is straddling the 8.9% threshold; have you tested the impact of crossing that at all?

Message 2 of 20
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop


@Anonymous wrote:

Refresh my memory, SJ, but do you have another card with a > 50% reported balance currently?  This also takes you to 1 more account with a balance, but if your profile is anything like mine that's a non-factor on EX. 

 

It looks like your aggregate utilization is straddling the 8.9% threshold; have you tested the impact of crossing that at all?


A few days ago all accounts were under 30%, but the other day, 1 account went from 20-something % to 42%. When that happened, there was no change in the EX scores. But then when this next account went from 0 to 57, boom.

 

Unfortunately, I won't be able to test the 6/7% thing for a while.

 

Yeah if today's EX utilization weren't rounded up, using EX's figures it would be 8.697%.

 

And no, I haven't looked at crossing the 8.9% threshold, but unfortunately I will involuntarily be doing that shortly Smiley Happy


Total revolving limits 569520 (505320 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 689 TU 684 EX 682




Message 3 of 20
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop

That'll be interesting to see.  What were you thinking, 15-20 points?  I think you referenced around that point value in crossing the same threshold for installment loan utilization a while back... perhaps you'd see around the same on revolving utilization.

Message 4 of 20
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop


@Anonymous wrote:

That'll be interesting to see.  What were you thinking, 15-20 points?  I think you referenced around that point value in crossing the same threshold for installment loan utilization a while back... perhaps you'd see around the same on revolving utilization.


No I don't expect anything like that. In fact I'm not sure I'll see any decrease at all. I think the hit I took today, when I reached the rounded 9%,  is the hit I'm going to take.

 

We may know more about 9 days from now, when my overall utilization will exceed 9%. But I'm not sure it will exceed 9% enough to be in the 10% territory, as opposed to being rounded down to 9%.

 

 

 

 

 


Total revolving limits 569520 (505320 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 689 TU 684 EX 682




Message 5 of 20
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop


@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

That'll be interesting to see.  What were you thinking, 15-20 points?  I think you referenced around that point value in crossing the same threshold for installment loan utilization a while back... perhaps you'd see around the same on revolving utilization.


No I don't expect anything like that. In fact I'm not sure I'll see any decrease at all. I thank the hit I took today, when I reached the rounded 9%,  is the hit I'm going to take.

 

We may know more about 9 days from now, when my overall utilization will exceed 9%. But I'm not sure it will exceed 9% enough to be in the 10% territory, as opposed to being rounded down to 9%.

 


I generally describe thresholds as follows:

1) below 9% (8% is below 9% as is 8.9% as is 8.99%)

2) 9% to below 29%

3) 29% to below 49%

4) 49% to below 69%

5) 69% to below 89%

6) 89% and above

 

A card posting utilization at 50 something % would have crossed the 49% level. An aggregate utilization of 8.5% would not have crossed the 9% aggregate threshold but, if it rises to 9.1% then the threshold will have been crossed. FWIW, that's how I look at it.

 

Given the above, your latest drop would likely be related to the card going over 49% and then a further TBD drop would be anticipated if/when aggregate reaches 9% prior to rounding up. 

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 6 of 20
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

That'll be interesting to see.  What were you thinking, 15-20 points?  I think you referenced around that point value in crossing the same threshold for installment loan utilization a while back... perhaps you'd see around the same on revolving utilization.


No I don't expect anything like that. In fact I'm not sure I'll see any decrease at all. I thank the hit I took today, when I reached the rounded 9%,  is the hit I'm going to take.

 

We may know more about 9 days from now, when my overall utilization will exceed 9%. But I'm not sure it will exceed 9% enough to be in the 10% territory, as opposed to being rounded down to 9%.

 


I generally describe thresholds as follows:

1) below 9% (8% is below 9% as is 8.9% as is 8.99%)

2) 9% to below 29%

3) 29% to below 49%

4) 49% to below 69%

5) 69% to below 89%

6) 89% and above

 

A card in posting utilization at 50 something % would have crossed the 49% level. An aggregate utilization of 8.5% would not have crossed the 9% aggregate threshold but, if it rises to 9.1% then the threshold will have been crossed. FWIW, that's how I look at it.

 

Given the above, your latest drop would likely be related to the card going over 49% and then a further TBD drop would be anticipated if/when aggregate reaches 9% prior to rounding up. 


My gut feeling from the way my EX scores are behaving is that it's not the true percentage that counts but the rounded percentage. I.e. if it's rounded up or down to 9% it's 9% for scoring purposes, so that there's no difference between 9.3% and 8.7%.

 

Now that I'm getting 4 EX scores daily in real time, I think I'm going to be able to test that. Either my gut feeling is baloney, or it's dead on.


Total revolving limits 569520 (505320 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 689 TU 684 EX 682




Message 7 of 20
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop

So, basically you are thinking utilization rounds to the nearest whole number as opposed to always rounding up.  Also that the threshold after rounding is 9%, not 10%.

 

In your hypothesis going from 8.2% to either 8.7% or 9.2% would have as scoring impact because the threshold is 9% and both 8.7% and 9.2% round to 9%. In contrast, 8.7% would not reach the next threshold (10%) but 9.2% would if utilization always rounds up.

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 8 of 20
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop


@SouthJamaica wrote:

We may know more about 9 days from now, when my overall utilization will exceed 9%. But I'm not sure it will exceed 9% enough to be in the 10% territory, as opposed to being rounded down to 9%.

 

 


Yeah, that's what I was referring to... the aggregate utilization crossing of that first threshold (be it 9%, 10%, whatever).  Curious what you think your score drops may look like if/when that happens?

Message 9 of 20
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: 50% Individual utilization --> 6 point drop


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

So, basically you are thinking utilization rounds to the nearest whole number as opposed to always rounding up.  Also that the threshold after rounding is 9%, not 10%.

 

That's my gut feeling from what I've been seeing in the few weeks I've had an opportunity to monitor the EX scores in real time. But I'm by no means sure, and need to watch the changes going forward to see if my new hypothesis has validity.

 

In your hypothesis going from 8.2% to either 8.7% or 9.2% would have as scoring impact because the threshold is 9% and both 8.7% and 9.2% round to 9%.

 

Yes but (a) it's just a hypothesis and (b) I have no serious experience watching any version of 9% -- actual or rounded -- since historically, since I've been on MyFICO, my overall utilization has been much lower. But yes, in my untested supposition, going from 8.2% to 8.7% would have the same scoring impact as going from 8.2% to 9.2%.

 

In contrast, 8.7% would not reach the next threshold (10%) but 9.2% would if utilization always rounds up.


I guess so. In my very limited experience I haven't noticed everything rounding up. But I have an open mind. Just trying to observe and learn right now.  If my hypotheses are supported by lots of testing, then I'll become dogmatic about it Smiley Happy And if they're not, then I'll toss them.


Total revolving limits 569520 (505320 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 689 TU 684 EX 682




Message 10 of 20
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