800->784 Experian free report/score data

newhis · ‎01-13-2017

DW score dropped again, util is higher than last month but well under 10%.

We are getting used to Experian free report/score, but there are some things that we don't understand. First what changed:

With 800 score (from printed report):

- 3% Util

- 6/11 cards reporting balance

- AUs reporting balance 1

- her store card - balance

With 784 score (from printed report):

- 4% Util

- 3/11 cards reporting balance

- AUs reporting balance 0

Now, the Experian Overview:

With 800 score (from Experian Overview, 'My Amount of Debt'):

- Revolving utilization 5%

- Accounts with balances 6

With 784 score (from Experian Overview, 'My Amount of Debt'):

- Revolving utilization 7%

- Accounts with balances 4

From this data I have some questions that I don't know if someone can answer:

~~1.- Why the report say 3% and 4% but the Experian Overview report 5% and 7%?~~ (I think I found the answer)

2.- How is possible that the printed report has only 3 accounts non $0 but the 'My Amount of Debt' say 4?

After some consideration and calculations, the 3% is actually 3.03% (with AUs) and maybe the 5% in 'My Amount of Debt' is 5.4% (own cards), the same with 4% it is at 4.04% with AUs and 7.4% without AUs.

Guess that with her profile, even when she is under 9% util (with or without AUs), her score dropped. I don't know if will help her to reduce the % on each card to less than 9%, 2 cards are near/at 20%. She has a BT and 0% promo.

Changes for next month:

- AoOA -> 3 years

- 2 cards will report balance, she will PIF her store card and report $0 later this month.

The next EX FICO Score available for her is Amex later this month, that score will be before her AoOA reach 3 years but after her store card report $0. Let's see if that changes her score before the next EX report/score.

Revelate · ‎01-13-2017

What were the individual tradeline balances between the two reports?

20% not sure; I may have shifted scorecards recently to a slightly less dirty bucket on EX/EX (maybe) and I had a 41% individual balance report and lost points on EX FICO 8. I lost my pure testing tradeline but maybe it's an issue on some scorecards. My TU didn't move at all at 41% which either screams bureau difference or scorecard difference and I can't resolve that on my own set of files unfortunately.

Anyway not much else I can point to at least from what you describe offhand.

I've tried multiple times to find something at 3 years and just can't for AAOA, maybe your data will be different. Actually I'll get another test in possibly depending how quickly Chase/First Tech report.

newhis · ‎01-13-2017

Cards:

1- 1.5% -> $0

2- 22.7% -> 20.4%

3- 0.5% -> $0

4- 6.7% -> $0

5- 4.0% -> 17.6%

6- 0.7% -> 8.0%

I don't know if the card with 20.4% will report before the next score update, but for sure next month the 8% will be $0 and the other 2 cards will be less than 20%.

I don't know why Experian say that 4 cards have balance because only 3 reported something.

As I have learned, there are some other variables that are hard to measure. Maybe the fact that the overall balance increased, maybe that 1 card crossed the 10%, maybe other thing AND the general profile caused the drop. We are not worried about the drop, it is nice to have 800 but everything above 760 is great. I guess the only way to make sure that the score stay the same (for her profile) is to report the same cards and same balance each month.

Revelate · ‎01-13-2017

@newhis wrote:
Cards:
1- 1.5% -> $0
2- 22.7% -> 20.4%
3- 0.5% -> $0
4- 6.7% -> $0
5- 4.0% -> 17.6%
6- 0.7% -> 8.0%

I don't know if the card with 20.4% will report before the next score update, but for sure next month the 8% will be $0 and the other 2 cards will be less than 20%.

I don't know why Experian say that 4 cards have balance because only 3 reported something.

As I have learned, there are some other variables that are hard to measure. Maybe the fact that the overall balance increased, maybe that 1 card crossed the 10%, maybe other thing AND the general profile caused the drop. We are not worried about the drop, it is nice to have 800 but everything above 760 is great. I guess the only way to make sure that the score stay the same (for her profile) is to report the same cards and same balance each month.

Just a bug, none of the software implementations, including myFICO can be used for any sort of rigorous analysis of the algorithm. Inspection of the report by hand takes precedence if there are discrepancies. As a similar one, my HELOC is counted as revolving in EX's interface, but it was absolutely ruled out by testing at least for accounts with balances and presumably utilization too as a result.

Score shifts and reason codes are still the only references for anslysis. Pretty up the revolving utilization and see where you are, 800 is achievable on 2 years AAOA (not sure what the inquiry distribution was on some of those files) and yeah it could've just been some other shift, even if it wasn't a major one... 8 clean scorecards after all, 4 dirty ones, and my EX FICO 9 lost points for having the tax lien removed as an example of things not behaving as they might.

JLK93 · ‎01-13-2017

@newhis wrote:
Cards:
1- 1.5% -> $0
2- 22.7% -> 20.4%
3- 0.5% -> $0
4- 6.7% -> $0
5- 4.0% -> 17.6%
6- 0.7% -> 8.0%

You went from 1 card >20% to 1 card >20% and 1 card >10%. Maybe that was it. I haven't had time to completely analyze your post.

newhis · ‎01-13-2017

Thank you.

I opened this thread mainly for newbies. They can see that the score can change if there are changes on the file, even if we stay under 9% util in all cards.

Now we are more aware of this things because we get few FICO scores each month and even free (limited) reports.

A 16 point drop is not a 'big' thing if you are in a good score range or if you are going to app for something.

This teached me to know that is no easy to get the best score with my file. There are a lot of tests that can be done but all of them takes time to do (6 card report, 3 card report, 2 card report, higher balance, lower balance, small balance) and the worst part is that the profile changes as time passes, older accounts, new accounts, better/worse AAoA, and many other things. I see it as a fun hobby, one that could make you crazy

newhis · ‎01-13-2017

@JLK93 wrote:
You went from 1 card >20% to 1 card >20% and 1 card >10%. Maybe that was it. I haven't had time to completely analyze your post.

Yes, maybe that's it. Next month will go from 3->2 cards and both less than 20%. Let's see what happens.

Maybe in March my DW will get other card. At least a HP will show on March's report, that will change everything.

JLK93 · ‎01-13-2017

@newhis wrote:
2.- How is possible that the printed report has only 3 accounts non $0 but the 'My Amount of Debt' say 4?

The number 4 may be including an installment loan. That is how myFICO does it. It doesn't make much sense, does it?

newhis · ‎01-13-2017

@JLK93 wrote:
@newhis wrote:
2.- How is possible that the printed report has only 3 accounts non $0 but the 'My Amount of Debt' say 4?

The number 4 may be including an installment loan. That is how myFICO does it. It doesn't make much sense, does it?

That's what I thought at first, 3 cards and loan = 4, but the month before there were 6 cards and auto loan and they say only 6. Weird.

JLK93 · ‎01-13-2017

@newhis wrote:
@JLK93 wrote:
@newhis wrote:
2.- How is possible that the printed report has only 3 accounts non $0 but the 'My Amount of Debt' say 4?

The number 4 may be including an installment loan. That is how myFICO does it. It doesn't make much sense, does it?
That's what I thought at first, 3 cards and loan = 4, but the month before there were 6 cards and auto loan and they say only 6. Weird.

I think I remember that TT once said that myFICO doesn't include AU accounts in the number of accounts with balances. That would explain why it only showed 6 accounts with balances the previous month.