AU experiment & score drops from small balance to $0 balance

[omgitsMatt]

My brother has no credit history. Or had none that is.

Back in September I added my brother to my $500 Cap 1 CC which was 11 months old. Then to my wife's $2000 and $4000 Cap 1 CC's same day. I swiped all of them at the vending machines at work, paid them off in full and then threw the cards in my filing cabinet.

The closing date on them all is the same, the 6th. They all hit at the same exact time on his credit reports on 9/16, I pulled his Fico 8 scores same day.

Capital One CC - $0/$500 - 11 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$2000 - 1yr, 4 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$4000 - 2 yrs, 2 mos

0 UTI, No HPS, no derogs and in fact absolutely nothing else but the 3 AUs

Experian/Equifax/Transunion - in that order

I pulled again on 10/17,

Capital One CC - $10/$500 - 1yr mos

Capital One CC - $0/$2000 - 1yr, 5 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$4000 - 2 yrs, 3 mos

It looks like he got points for AoYA turning a year and having a revolving balance, unlike the month before.

Experian/Equifax/Transunion - in that order

I pulled again today,

Capital One CC - $10/$500 - 1yr, 1 mo

Capital One CC - $0/$2000 - 1yr, 6 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$4000 - 2 yrs, 4 mos

Experian/Equifax/Transunion - in that order

December 6th the $10/$500 will post as $0/$600, when (or if) he gets penalized we'll know for certain wheter he can get a no revolving balance penalty on just AU accounts.

I'm also helping him open a SSL through Navy and having it paid down to < 8.9%.

Ideally by January he'll have a balance on one of the AUs, so he gets those points back and the SSL will have reported. Hopefully at < 8.9%, but if not by then, Febuary for sure.

The moment it does, I'm having him open 3 cards same day. He's showing Platinum Preferred, Quicksilver, SavorOne and VentureOne via Cap 1's prequal page. He's got a Disco prequal on a Discover it Secured too.

I'll have him go

1. Disco 1st, as that's the best for him I think as potential grower

2. Cap1 2nd, as I am suspicious of them. They'll probably counter with a steps Platinium

3. NFCU Go Rewards 3rd, then nRewards when he gets the probable denial

If Disco and Cap1 don't work out, I have a big list of secured cards with no AF.

I want to help him get lined up for a mortgage like he wants in a year. He can probably get a USDA loan very easily by then.

The idea is to have all his revolvers the exact same age, the HPs the same month and the SSL only a month older than the revolvers. That way everything ages together, including the HPs.

[omgitsMatt]

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@omgitsMatt wrote:

My brother has no credit history. Or had none that is.

Back in September I added my brother to my $500 Cap 1 CC which was 11 months old. Then to my wife's $2000 and $4000 Cap 1 CC's same day. I swiped all of them at the vending machines at work, paid them off in full and then threw the cards in my filing cabinet.

The closing date on them all is the same, the 6th. They all hit at the same exact time on his credit reports on 9/16, I pulled his Fico 8 scores same day.

Capital One CC - $0/$500 - 11 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$2000 - 1yr, 4 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$4000 - 2 yrs, 2 mos

0 UTI, No HPS, no derogs and in fact absolutely nothing else but the 3 AUs

Experian/Equifax/Transunion - in that order

I pulled again on 10/17,

Capital One CC - $10/$500 - 1yr mos

Capital One CC - $0/$2000 - 1yr, 5 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$4000 - 2 yrs, 3 mos

It looks like he got points for AoYA turning a year and having a revolving balance, unlike the month before.

Experian/Equifax/Transunion - in that order

I pulled again today,

Capital One CC - $10/$500 - 1yr, 1 mo

Capital One CC - $0/$2000 - 1yr, 6 mos

Capital One CC - $0/$4000 - 2 yrs, 4 mos

Experian/Equifax/Transunion - in that order

December 6th the $10/$500 will post as $0/$600, when (or if) he gets penalized we'll know for certain wheter he can get a no revolving balance penalty on just AU accounts.

I'm also helping him open a SSL through Navy and having it paid down to < 8.9%.

Ideally by January he'll have a balance on one of the AUs, so he gets those points back and the SSL will have reported. Hopefully at < 8.9%, but if not by then, Febuary for sure.

The moment it does, I'm having him open 3 cards same day. He's showing Platinum Preferred, Quicksilver, SavorOne and VentureOne via Cap 1's prequal page. He's got a Disco prequal on a Discover it Secured too.

I'll have him go

1. Disco 1st, as that's the best for him I think as potential grower

2. Cap1 2nd, as I am suspicious of them. They'll probably counter with a steps Platinium

3. NFCU Go Rewards 3rd, then Secured nRewards when he gets the probable denial

If Disco and Cap1 don't work out, I have a big list of secured cards with no AF.

I want to help him get lined up for a mortgage like he wants in a year. He can probably get a USDA loan very easily by then.

The idea is to have all his revolvers the exact same age, the HPs the same month and the SSL only a month older than the revolvers. That way everything ages together, including the HPs.

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Very long story short (and I really am sorry about that), for some reason people trust me.

I have the perfect profile to continue to test more on this come Febuary or March.

I'm not going to spend money on pulls until everything has settled though. I'm just going to check to see if he gets a no revolving credit penalty on his Fico 8s next month, then when the dust settles in Feb/Mar I'll start micro managing things and keeping track of everything compulsively.

We'll get more answers, wheter we find more people to experiment or not.

[Anonymous]

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@omgitsMatt wrote:

My brother has no credit history. Or had none that is.

Back in September I added my brother to my $500 Cap 1 CC which was 11 months old. Then to my wife's $2000 and $4000 Cap 1 CC's same day. I swiped all of them at the vending machines at work, paid them off in full and then threw the cards in my filing cabinet.

The closing date on them all is the same, the 6th. They all hit at the same exact time on his credit reports on 9/16, I pulled his Fico 8 scores same day.

Really great info, Matt! I'll never be an AU on a card, but this whole thread and those score changes on your brother's report are really interesting.

[Anonymous]

Yeah Matt big kudos to you, you did a great job with that. Those are some awesome results and I think you’ve got a great plan except that I personally don’t like Cap1. The triple pull and bucketing really turns me off.

But that’s just a personal bias. I’ll tell you what, he should be very grateful and thankful that he has you, you’ve done a wonderful job for him. I’m impressed!

And I look forward to the results of your testing

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:
nerdralph No, I agree EX and TU are the ones with buggy logic. I've just never heard of a way to report bugs for any CRA, so you piqued my interest. What method does EQ have?

Further, I'd love to hear some other members opinions on the coding...we have a lot of members with software experience and some with deep knowledge on how the licensing works. I don't know why it would need to be binary, they could provide the source code in Java or whatever higher-level language, right?

Its my understanding FICO makes makes the code, customizes upon request and then provides it, so your description is new to me, but I don't have the knowledge or background to competently discuss it really.

I listened to an interview with Tom Quinn - Vice President of FICO Scoring - here https://www.gerridetweiler.com/truth-about-fico-scores.html

[EDIT: It's not that link. It's this one: https://www.doughroller.net/credit/interview-ficos-credit-expert-tom-quinn-podcast-episode-002/

Start listening around 11 minutes 30 seconds (11:30). He will talk about the 'software boxes' that are sent after the CRA's 'periodically send a data sample' to them.]

At one point he talks about FICO 'updating the scoring modules' at the CRA's. I work in predictive analytics for machines using much of the same mathematics that FICO (and everybody else in the Ai/ML world) uses. Using some form of compiled modules like that would allow the scoring to take place at each CRA without having to give away any secrets.

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The trade secret aspect is something I hadn't considered.  My inital thought was FICO would just rely on the strength of their licence, but I can see the benefit of holding their cards closer to their chest.  Providing a standard module would solve the problem of database schema differences.  The bureau or FI would write the code to pull the necessary credit data from their DB, and call the FICO module using a standard API (12:20 in the interview).  And if FICO ships a Java library in the form of compiled bytecodes, it can be run on any platform where the JVM is available.  The  module "generates the score and reason codes" (12:41).

This would mean FICO has no control over which data goes into the scoring.  i.e. what data gets excluded, say for AU fraud, can be decided by the licensee.  FICO can still exclude some of the data the scoring module is given, such as inquiries being excluded past a certain age depending on the FICO model chosen (mortgage, bankcard, auto, etc).  This also would explain some of the reports of significant score changes when accounts are disputed, as the bureau could filter the data sent to the FICO scoring module to exclude any accounts that are disputed or flagged for review/verification.

I still think there are are no AU scorecards in FICO-08, and they are scored by feeding only the AU accounts to the scoring module and then combining the results with the score and reason code from the non-AU accounts.

[Anonymous]

Everyone would love to know those trade secrets. That’s exactly why I felt it had to be compiled. but I definitely did not know how to explain it on a software level.

Next I wouldn’t say that FICO has no control over which data gets excluded unless you’re talking about what data is fed into the scoring module.

Obviously the CRA can filter what data they feed into the module. But once it’s in the scoring module, the module can exclude anything it’s logic determines should be excluded, why couldn’t it?

As for AU, it was always my understanding they use an algorithm not separate cards, but I did notice in one of the interviews in the links he did mention 14 scorecards which really caught me off guard. and I do remember the thread regarding the original idea being cards and then being changed to an algorithm.

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:
Next I wouldn’t say that FICO has no control over which data gets excluded unless you’re talking about what data is fed into the scoring module.

Obviously the CRA can filter what data they feed into the module. But once it’s in the scoring module, the module can exclude anything it’s logic determines should be excluded, why couldn’t it?

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Did you read this sentence?  "FICO can still exclude some of the data the scoring module is given, such as inquiries being excluded past a certain age depending on the FICO model chosen (mortgage, bankcard, auto, etc). "

[Anonymous]

Yes I did read that sentence and it was exactly the reason for my response. By negative implication you’re implying “some” of the data its fed, it can not exclude. I feel it can exclude “any” of the data that its fed that it’s logic is programmed to exclude, including AU accounts.

I apologize if I misunderstood your post.

[Anonymous]

Matt we may have someone in a situation to test:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Big-hit-to-EX-Fico-8-with-no-big-changes...

[omgitsMatt]

I saw you catch that yesterday while skimming threads at work, I got excited when I first saw it.

BTW, there's a very fair chance all accounts will report zero early next month, so we will get to see if I get penalized for no revolving balance twice.

Fingers crossed