About to spree, will scores exceed current in 1 yr?

[Anonymous]

First, I've never done an app spree before.  I currently only have 2 open CC's on my account.  One I don't even really count as it's a Care Credit card that was used once upon opening it years ago and essentially in my view is an installment loan as it's simply been paid down monthly for years without ever adding another purchase.  Once that's paid off I'll likely close it.  My only other CC is obviously the one I use for everything.  Having 1 CC doesn't suit me and the limit is pretty low as well.

Anyway, I've decided on 4 cards that I plan on apping for any day.  I've been planning to app for these cards for weeks now but have been hesitant to pull the trigger; no real reason why just hoping to snag some more FICO 08 points first through paying down utilization, paying down on an installment loan, etc.  Scores have more or less leveled off and currently stand at 730/728/743.  My scores for comparison purposes 16 months ago were in the 620-640 range.  The real reason for this thread as suggested in the title is that I'm concerned about where my scores may fall 1 year from now.  Next summer I plan on applying for a second home mortgage.  I of course want solid 760+ scores at that time.

I understand that this app "spree" of 4 new accounts will ding my scores temporarily; I'm anticipating maybe a 15-20 point drop across them.  My question really is that is it realistic to expect that in 12-14 months time, assuming I handle these 4 new accounts in addition to the rest of my profile perfectly that I can obtain 760+ scores?  I figure it's best to get the app spree out of the way now so that gardening can begin.

To give a little feedback on my current profile, my AAoA is 7.7 (7) years and will drop to 6.3 (6) years after I app assuming approval for all new accounts.  Oldest account is 16 years.  I currently have 0 inquiries across all bureaus; from research I've found that with all HP's from the 4 apps I'll end up with no more than 2 HP's on any bureau when I'm done.  Those inquiries of course wouldn't impact my credit scores 1+ year from now when I apply for the second mortgage.  My utilization is currently 5% and will always remain at 9% or less.  As far as baddies, I've got a 60 day from August 2014 and a 90 day from December 2014 currently impacting my scores.  In 2 months I'd imagine the 60 day will impact me less as it hits the 2 year mark.  Not sure if the 90 day will lose any impact at the end of this year when it hits 2 years but probably not as I understand a 90 day is significantly more damaging than a 60 day.  Currently bombarding both of those creditors with GW letters non-stop in an attempt to remove them.  Hoping for the best but of course assuming the worst, I have to figure they'll stay on my reports for the full 7 years and thus still be there when I apply for the mortgage in summer 2017.  There's a total of 8 installment loans on my report - 6 closed/PIF and 2 open ones; my current mortgage at about 74% of it's original balance and an auto loan at 69% of it's original balance.  Not sure if there's any other information here worth providing, but if so by all means let me know.

Thank you for the feedback everyone. 

[Revelate]

If your mortgage process is 366+ days after you do the app spree no worries.

If it's not, and you have 3 tradelines from the sounds of it, open up one card at most, get the mortgage, and then do the app spree.  Inquiries are counted full monty for the entire year they are on there absolutely on FICO 8 and earlier, and unless you're gold plated (north of 760) no credit card is worth jeopardizing your mortgage tier.  Credit cards are absolutely irrelevant compared to mortgage pricing.

FICO 8 scores aren't reference for mortgage anyway, which you probably already know but just making sure.

If the mortgage weren't in the cards, you'd be fine with the app spree since the inquiries would be gone in a year, and your AAOA would've recovered with 12 additional months added to the post spree AAOA.

[Anonymous]

I'm thinking a minimum of 1 year; we plan to look for another home about a year from now, so it could be a year + several months before I actually need to apply for a mortage.  It certainly won't be LESS than a year.

Any guesses based on the information I gave above as to what my scores could be 1 year+ from now post-app spree?  I feel like if I was able to build 100 points or so over the past 15 months that over the next 15 months with diminishing returns I could possibly scoop up half of that, post app spree.  So if my average score right now is in the 730's and I anticipate being in the 710's for a couple of months post-spree, I'd hope I could be in the 760's within a year.  Not really sure what opinions are on this, though. 

[Revelate]

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@Anonymous wrote:

I'm thinking a minimum of 1 year; we plan to look for another home about a year from now, so it could be a year + several months before I actually need to apply for a mortage.  It certainly won't be LESS than a year.

Any guesses based on the information I gave above as to what my scores could be 1 year+ from now post-app spree?  I feel like if I was able to build 100 points or so over the past 15 months that over the next 15 months with diminishing returns I could possibly scoop up half of that, post app spree.  So if my average score right now is in the 730's and I anticipate being in the 710's for a couple of months post-spree, I'd hope I could be in the 760's within a year.  Not really sure what opinions are on this, though. 

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Doubtful with that 90 day on there, but we don't have a very good handle on how lates really affect scores as it's not 1:1 with PR's/collections.

I'm exactly where I was previously pre-spree from a few months shy of a year ago on my mortgage scores with a tax lien dominating my report, and at worst case you'll be similar; however, with your stats any improvement will come from the lates aging and that's really about it frankly, almost anything else you do is going to be inconsequential much like my file.

If you get them off you'll crack 800 FICO 8 assuming your utilization isn't out of whack.

[Anonymous]

Well, I suppose that gives me a solid year to try and find GW success on that 90 day.

I guess the bottom line is app spree or not, my scores either way will likely be similar a year from now... which isn't great news as I'm really looking for a nice interest rate on that second mortage.

[RonM21]

When you are trying the GW, it may take multiple attempts. Not saying it will ever work. But all you can do is try.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, I know it can take a lot of work.  I've already sent 18 snail mail letters and 3 emails for GW and have only received denials thus far.  Conversely on another account I sent GW letters 3 times, and each time received a GW adjustment which completely cleared that account of baddies.  It really is hit or miss.  All I can do is keep trying.

Does anyone know if the impact of a 90 day late diminishes at all within the 7 year time frame (perhaps longer than the 2 years 30/60's impact score) or if it's potency is 100% for the full 7 years?

[Revelate]

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@Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, I know it can take a lot of work.  I've already sent 18 snail mail letters and 3 emails for GW and have only received denials thus far.  Conversely on another account I sent GW letters 3 times, and each time received a GW adjustment which completely cleared that account of baddies.  It really is hit or miss.  All I can do is keep trying.

Does anyone know if the impact of a 90 day late diminishes at all within the 7 year time frame (perhaps longer than the 2 years 30/60's impact score) or if it's potency is 100% for the full 7 years?

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It either decreases with time or deliquencies don't count as hard.

Not really sure, but we have concrete datapoints from a few people just in terms of highest score reporting: PR, 756 IIRC, 90 day late, 785.  That's a marked difference suggesting that with highly optimized files a 90 day late is non-trivially different than a tax lien... and that 756 has been hit by one person, my own highly optimized file pre-mortgage kissed 740 with a tax lien and other stuff but I didn't have the extensive history the other individual did.

[SouthJamaica]

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@Revelate wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, I know it can take a lot of work.  I've already sent 18 snail mail letters and 3 emails for GW and have only received denials thus far.  Conversely on another account I sent GW letters 3 times, and each time received a GW adjustment which completely cleared that account of baddies.  It really is hit or miss.  All I can do is keep trying.

Does anyone know if the impact of a 90 day late diminishes at all within the 7 year time frame (perhaps longer than the 2 years 30/60's impact score) or if it's potency is 100% for the full 7 years?

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It either decreases with time or deliquencies don't count as hard.

Not really sure, but we have concrete datapoints from a few people just in terms of highest score reporting: PR, 756 IIRC, 90 day late, 785.  That's a marked difference suggesting that with highly optimized files a 90 day late is non-trivially different than a tax lien... and that 756 has been hit by one person, my own highly optimized file pre-mortgage kissed 740 with a tax lien and other stuff but I didn't have the extensive history the other individual did.

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My advice would be to apply for 2 cards rather than 4, and not to do a second mortgage at all.

Taking out a second mortgage was the worst financial move I ever made.

[Anonymous]

I only plan to have 2 mortgages for a limited amount of time... likely however long it takes to sell the first house and pay off that mortgage.  The plan isn't to have 2 mortgages forever, that's for sure.

Curious why you'd suggest 2 cards instead of 4?  I would think in a year or more of time that the number wouldn't matter much as the inquiries would be gone and they wouldn't be new accounts at that point?  The only difference that I see in opening 2 accounts verses 4 would be my AAoA would still be 7 years instead of 6... but even with 4 accounts opened I'd be back at 7 in about 8-9 months.