Credit challenge: Predict the change!

[Anonymous]

As some of you know from my posting history I monitor my score very closely and track the events which may (or may not!) have an impact on my score. I see them coming, check my score before, and check my score after, to see if they made a difference. I do this using the Experian credit tracker tool which enables me to generate a report and a score on demand (I don't have to wait for a "trigger" like on myfico).

SO..... just for fun, here are two things that are going to happen this month:

1) My FirstTech visa will age to 6 months within the next day or so

2) My RBC Visa will age to 12 months, first card I have to hit the 1 year mark, in 27 days

Current status from EX's perspective: Score 720, 7 INQs that are 3m, 3m, 6m (within days!), 8m, 8m, 8m, 8m old. My utilization sits at 4% and I PIF every month, as most of my spend goes on my Amex PRG which is not counted in utilization I don't anticipate that changing significantly. I have 7 accounts that are 11m, 8m, 8m, 8m, 6m, 3m, 3m old. I have no derogatories.Experian's site says my score is held back by "short credit history", "no installment loans", and "short revolving history". Its view is that my oldest account is 11m and that my AAoA is 7m.

Eagle eyes will notice that there is no corresponding INQ for my 11m about to be 12m card, so that will be an interesting data point -- the account will age to 1 year but no INQ will fall off. That is because the corresponding INQ is actually on my Canadian credit record, that card was issued by a Canadian bank that does business in the US, based on my history with them in Canada.

And yes, my oldest account is 11m old (about to be one year).

I will use this thread to collect data on what the impact of these events are -- but take your shot at predicting!

[Anonymous]

7 point drop

[NRB525]

I think 30 days from now you will be about 2 points higher.

3 months from now, probably 5 points higher.

What you don't say is, how many of all these cards report any balance that contributes to the 4% utilization, vs being zero at each report. Will any of those go on-report off-report?

[Thomas_Thumb]

I would anticipate some potential score shifts when:

1) Your AAoA reaches 1 year

2) When your most recent 3 month old inquiries (QTY =2)  reach 6 months

3) When your older 8 month old inquiries (QTY=3) reach one year.

4) Your oldest account reaches 2 years age + all existing inquiries have reached 1 year age minimum.

Guestimate 10 point boost after meeting #2 and #3 combined, Guestimate another 10 point boost after meeting #1 and another 10 points after meeting #4.

[NRB525]

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@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

I would anticipate some potential score shifts when:

1) Your AAoA reaches 1 year

2) When your most recent 3 month old inquiries (QTY =2)  reach 6 months

3) When your older 8 month old inquiries (QTY=3) reach one year.

4) Your oldest account reaches 2 years age + all existing inquiries have reached 1 year age minimum.

Guestimate 10 point boost after meeting #2 and #3 combined, Guestimate another 10 point boost after meeting #1 and another 10 points after meeting #4.

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So, basically a year from now, +30 points. I can see that as being in range, provided no new applications are done during the next year. A big IF around here, at Credit Addicts Anonymous 

[Anonymous]

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@NRB525 wrote:

What you don't say is, how many of all these cards report any balance that contributes to the 4% utilization, vs being zero at each report. Will any of those go on-report off-report?

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Of the cards in my siggy the PRG gets a lot of spending on it, most of what I spend, but because it's a charge card Experian doesn't incldue it in utilization, so the 4% is from the others. The BoA and Amazon cards both get some modest spending--stuff I buy on Amazon and places that don't take Amex. There's a mobile phone bill still running through my BCE so it gets a little bit.. They are all paid in full every month, but I let the balances report.

The RBC and FirstTech cards basically never have a balance and if I go fix my mobile phone bill then neither will my BCE.

[jamie123]

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@Anonymous wrote:

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@NRB525 wrote:

What you don't say is, how many of all these cards report any balance that contributes to the 4% utilization, vs being zero at each report. Will any of those go on-report off-report?

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Of the cards in my siggy the PRG gets a lot of spending on it, most of what I spend, but because it's a charge card Experian doesn't incldue it in utilization, so the 4% is from the others. The BoA and Amazon cards both get some modest spending--stuff I buy on Amazon and places that don't take Amex. There's a mobile phone bill still running through my BCE so it gets a little bit.. They are all paid in full every month, but I let the balances report.

The RBC and FirstTech cards basically never have a balance and if I go fix my mobile phone bill then neither will my BCE.

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I'm not sure that you are aware of this:

1. You will take a small point drop for each CC more than 1 and maybe 2 CCs that report a balance.

2. You will take a pretty good hit if more than 50% of your CCs report a balance. Even if the balances are very small. The PRG figures into this calculation.

To groom your scores it is best to have just 1 card report a balance of less than 10% of its CL and all other cards report $0. You really only need to groom your scores this way for two reasons, one, you want to see how high you can get your scores or two, you plan on apping for new credit in the next month.

[Anonymous]

I will eventually move the mobile phone bill off the BCE but I won't do it this cycle so that it won't confound the impact of the accounts and inquiries aging.

I wonder if the PRG counts in that equation, as it is a charge card.

[jamie123]

Yes, the PRG most certainly counts in the equation.

[Anonymous]

And the results are in....

Yesterday my score was 720 and EX said my oldest account was 0.9 years old. Today it everything else is the same except it says my oldest account is 1 year old. My score today? 726.

So you get six points the day your oldest account rounds the 12 month mark.

Interesting to note that this happens on the 1st of the month in which the account hits a year, the exact actual day is later in the month but only TU records the actual day. EX actually has rounded the opening day to the 1st for every account.