EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months AoOA!

[FICO-Quest]

I've previously read about the dreaded FICO scorecard reassignment, and it appears to have happened to me.  I woke up this morning to a 20 point decrease in my Experian Fico 8 score from 794 to 774 - ouch!  The only difference in my profile is my oldest reporting account hit 36 months old.  I had seen a gain of 8 points in the prior month as 1 of 2 "scorable" inquiries dropped, but that's still a net 12 point loss in the past few weeks despite everything else remaining the same.  I also just received an alert from MyFico about a 15 point decrease @ TU.

For anyone keeping track:  This is with a clean, thick file (>10 accts), 1 new revolver < 3 mo's old, 2 new revolvers between 6 & 12 months old.

[JoeRockhead]

I've never heard of losing points for gaining account age... 

[FICO-Quest]

Re-bucketed, from one FICO scorecard to another as AoOA (in my case) incremented @ 36 months - with everything else remaining the same (no balance changes, no derogs, etc.).  There's been plenty of discussion about this in books and in this forum:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Buckets-Scorecards/m-p/5070090/highlight...

[SouthJamaica]

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@FICO-Quest wrote:

Re-bucketed, from one FICO scorecard to another as AoOA (in my case) incremented @ 36 months - with everything else remaining the same (no balance changes, no derogs, etc.).  There's been plenty of discussion about this in books and in this forum:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Buckets-Scorecards/m-p/5070090/highlight...

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I agree with @JoeRockhead that it's unlikely that you sustained a 20 point decrease due to an upward scorecard reassignment. Although I have also seen "plenty of discussion about this" I have never had a score drop of any amount due to an upward scorecard reassignment.

The post you cited does not say anything about losing  points when your age of oldest account reaches a milestone.

I frequently see posts in this forum where the member incorrectly believes that a point loss is attributable to something to which it is not attributable, usually due to incomplete knowledge of the timing of the data change and score change, or overlooking an unrelated data change. Sometimes the member figures it out eventually, and corrects him or her self, sometimes not.  Those count as "discussion" but they are not authority.

[FICO-Quest]

Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold.  There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing).  There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged).  I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that.  Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771.  So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate.  I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.

[Thomas_Thumb]

I agree with SJ and JoeRockhead.

BTW - AAoA is not a factor the shifts scorecard assignment. AoOA and AoYA are as is file thickness. AAoA can impact score but not scorecard. An increase in AAoA does not drop score.

[SouthJamaica]

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@FICO-Quest wrote:

Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold.  There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing).  There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged).  I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that.  Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771.  So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate.  I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.

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1.  Do you know the date the data changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

2. Do you know the date the score changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

3. From what sources are you determining that there were no other data changes?

[FICO-Quest]

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@SouthJamaica wrote:

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@FICO-Quest wrote:

Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold.  There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing).  There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged).  I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that.  Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771.  So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate.  I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.

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1.  Do you know the date the data changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

Logged into Experian late on 12/31 and received the "alert" that I had 20 point decrease in my EX 8 score.  Started receiving the alerts from MyFico for Fico 8 score decreases on TU & EQ on 1/2 today, around midday.  I've logged in directly with Experian, Equifax and TransUnion to verify the lack of any additional changes to data.

2. Do you know the date the score changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

I am absolutely, 100% certain that the 20 point decrease in EX8 occurred as the clock rolled over on 1/1/2024, EST.  I happened to log in to Experian to check something on the morning of 12/31 and it showed my EX8 still @ 794, and I logged in again late on 12/31 (after 9pm PST) to update a spreadsheet I was working on and saw the red notification of the 20 point decrease from Experian.  I am slightly less than 100% certain that my TU/EQ changed on 1/1 simply because I just didn't look at my Fico 8 scores for those 2 from another source.

3. From what sources are you determining that there were no other data changes?
I pulled a full credit reports from all 3 CRA's on 12/20, and obtained an updated set of scores from MyFico on that same day.  I have since logged in directly to Experian, Equifax and Trans Union to verify no other changes have been made to my reports.  My curiosity got the better of me and I paid for an extra set of scores today to compare. 

Bottom line:  Mortgage scores still posted modest increases on/about 1/1/2024, Fico 10's also increased if anyone is interested.  Fico 8's and 9's though took a huge hit.  The Auto and Bankcard enhanced scores tracked the increases or decreases listed for the corresponding Fico versions.  If anyone wants additional details, I'll be happy to respond.  Here's some specifics:

Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 12/20:     756/736/750
Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 01/02:     760/745/752

Fico 3 (EX) 12/20:      742
Fico 3 (EX).01/02:      755

Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     794/802/790
Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     774/774/771

Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     800/818/795
Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     777/815/780

This is with a total of 12 accounts (9 of which are revolvers), 1-revolver is reporting a balance of $5 (before AND after), there is 1 scorable inquiry with EX/EQ, 3 scorable Inquiries with TU.  There is no history of lates, collections, public records, etc. before/after, ONLY the 36 month AoOA (or rather, Age of Credit File) now reporting.  Oh, and AAoA is 1yr 9 months.

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[SouthJamaica]

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@FICO-Quest wrote:

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@SouthJamaica wrote:

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@FICO-Quest wrote:

Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold.  There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing).  There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged).  I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that.  Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771.  So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate.  I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.

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1.  Do you know the date the data changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

Logged into Experian late on 12/31 and received the "alert" that I had 20 point decrease in my EX 8 score.  Started receiving the alerts from MyFico for Fico 8 score decreases on TU & EQ on 1/2 today, around midday.  I've logged in directly with Experian, Equifax and TransUnion to verify the lack of any additional changes to data.

2. Do you know the date the score changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

I am absolutely, 100% certain that the 20 point decrease in EX8 occurred as the clock rolled over on 1/1/2024, EST.  I happened to log in to Experian to check something on the morning of 12/31 and it showed my EX8 still @ 794, and I logged in again late on 12/31 (after 9pm PST) to update a spreadsheet I was working on and saw the red notification of the 20 point decrease from Experian.  I am slightly less than 100% certain that my TU/EQ changed on 1/1 simply because I just didn't look at my Fico 8 scores for those 2 from another source.

3. From what sources are you determining that there were no other data changes?
I pulled a full credit reports from all 3 CRA's on 12/20, and obtained an updated set of scores from MyFico on that same day.  I have since logged in directly to Experian, Equifax and Trans Union to verify no other changes have been made to my reports.  My curiosity got the better of me and I paid for an extra set of scores today to compare. 

Bottom line:  Mortgage scores still posted modest increases on/about 1/1/2024, Fico 10's also increased if anyone is interested.  Fico 8's and 9's though took a huge hit.  The Auto and Bankcard enhanced scores tracked the increases or decreases listed for the corresponding Fico versions.  If anyone wants additional details, I'll be happy to respond.  Here's some specifics:

Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 12/20:     756/736/750
Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 01/02:     760/745/752

Fico 3 (EX) 12/20:      742
Fico 3 (EX).01/02:      755

Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     794/802/790
Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     774/774/771

Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     800/818/795
Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     777/815/780

This is with a total of 12 accounts (9 of which are revolvers), 1-revolver is reporting a balance of $5 (before AND after), there is 1 scorable inquiry with EX/EQ, 3 scorable Inquiries with TU.  There is no history of lates, collections, public records, etc. before/after, ONLY the 36 month AoOA (or rather, Age of Credit File) now reporting.  Oh, and AAoA is 1yr 9 months.

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Well thank you for the data.

So everything went up except FICO 8's and 9's.

It's a head scratcher to me.

Maybe @Thomas_Thumb will be able to figure it out.

[Thomas_Thumb]

In my prior post I mentioned that AAoA was not associated with scorecard assignment. I also mentioned that AoOA was a factor in scorecard assignment. I mistakenly thought the OP was referring to his AAoA being 36 months.

Given it was the OP's AoOA aging to 36 months that could very well result in a scorecard reassignment. As we know, the various Fico models adjust signal strength of scoring factors differently across their scorecards.

The older Fico 98 and Fico 04 algorithms have 10 total scorecards (2 dirty, 8 clean) fico 8 has 12 (4 dirty, 8 clean) and Fico 9 has 13 (4 dirty, 9 clean). Not sure about Fico 10. The various algorithms adjust scoring factor signal strengths differently overall and among scorecards.

Therefore, a change in scorecard with one Fico model may have a different impact on score than a reassignment on another Fico model.

I realize this does not get to the root cause of the score drop on Fico 8 and 9. That requires some what, why and what if analysis.

For example, opening a new revolving account can drop score 20 points on Fico 8/9 if the profile has no other recent account openings. What if I were on a new credit scorecard due to my low AoOA. Might it not penalize further for this new account? Now what if I got re-assigned to an established credit scorecard. Might I then get hit with the 20 point penalty?

Why didn't my score drop on other Fico models? Might those models not have the new account penalty? Is it possible there was no scorecard reassignment with those models? These hypothesis would need to be researched and either supported or refuted with data.

The above is just one example. The same approach could be applied to an aged 30 day late. The late would translate to a dirty scorecard on the older Fico mortgage models. However, it would not prevent a clean assignment on Fico 8/9 if no other derogs were on File. Age of file is not a consideration in dirty scorecard assignment.

Industry option scores are derived using the base Classic algorithm and then applying an overlay. The scorecard segmentation is in the base model, not the overlay.