Expected score drop. Didn't expect that much of a drop though.

[Anonymous]

I just opened 2 new CC accounts and as expected, my score just dropped after the first new account reported. I kinda did not expect that much of a drop though....

Here are some data points:
- Started rebuildimg my credit in Jan 2017, started off with a pretty bad score: EQ 574, TU 535, EX 555
- Old student loan paid off, older than 10 years and as of May 2017 not showing on my report anymore.
- Old car repo dropped of in Sept 2017
- Opened a Secured Credit Card, kept util under 8.9%, always PIF
- AAoA 10 Months
- AoyA 10 Months
- Inquiries 0

All that brought my score up to EQ 770, TU 735, EX 769.

So i recently applied for an AMEX and a Discover IT this month. The Discover just reported to EX, the AMEX hasn't yet. My score dropped significantly:

- One HP from AMEX: EX -19
- Disco started reporting, AAoA dropping to 5 Months, AoyA dropping to 0: EX -32

Thats quite a bit more than what i was expecting. Once the AMEX starts reporting, it will probably drop even more.

Am i correct in thinking that the score should relatively quickly rise again, once the AoyA goes back up to >0, and the cards start reporting AZEO, <8.9% and PIF? Hoping to be back up in the high 700s by next summer...

Besides that, hopefully those are useful data points for those in a similar situation.

[DollyLama]

I'd say you  were rebucketed once those baddies fell off (which included a longer history with one). So currently your file is very young. It will bounce back in a year and two years will really make an impact. Just garden your file with what you have, and it will grow and bounce back in time. The only thing I would suggest is to possibly do the SSL for the installment loan in your credit mix. 

[Anonymous]

Your AAoA dropping from 10 months to 5 months definitely hurt.  Perhaps 6 months is a break point and in 1-2 months you'll see some of those points come back.  Same thing with AoYA, perhaps 6 months is a break point.  I'm not sure though, but if it is in 6 months you'll see a bit of an increase.  I would say in 7 months your scores will be back to where they were, as your AAoA will reach 1 year which is a good thing and the other factors (AoYA, inquiries) will age some.  Definitely in 1 year when the inquiries become unscoreable your scores will exceed what they were pre-new accounts, but I have a feeling that will happen sooner, most definitely by 10 months as at that time you'll arrive back at or exceed where your age of accounts were before the apps.

[Revelate]

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@Anonymous wrote:

Your AAoA dropping from 10 months to 5 months definitely hurt.  Perhaps 6 months is a break point and in 1-2 months you'll see some of those points come back.  Same thing with AoYA, perhaps 6 months is a break point.  I'm not sure though, but if it is in 6 months you'll see a bit of an increase.  I would say in 7 months your scores will be back to where they were, as your AAoA will reach 1 year which is a good thing and the other factors (AoYA, inquiries) will age some.  Definitely in 1 year when the inquiries become unscoreable your scores will exceed what they were pre-new accounts, but I have a feeling that will happen sooner, most definitely by 10 months as at that time you'll arrive back at or exceed where your age of accounts were before the apps.

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For a clean file suggesting there's an AAOA boundary at 6 months?  Or an AOYA one (more likely)?  I think we're reaching on this one .  I still haven't seen much to suggest that there's an AAOA boundary smaller of 2 years but I think it's almost impossible to figure out concretely... certainly not based on score shifting.

Dunno, trying to figure out new file scoring might as well be done with a Oujia board: just too many changes going on.  While I have some data from my early build I pretty much had to throw it away with how busy my report was at the time.

[Anonymous]

On the score drop, were those Fico scores?

[Anonymous]

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@Revelate wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:

Your AAoA dropping from 10 months to 5 months definitely hurt.  Perhaps 6 months is a break point and in 1-2 months you'll see some of those points come back.  Same thing with AoYA, perhaps 6 months is a break point.  I'm not sure though, but if it is in 6 months you'll see a bit of an increase.  I would say in 7 months your scores will be back to where they were, as your AAoA will reach 1 year which is a good thing and the other factors (AoYA, inquiries) will age some.  Definitely in 1 year when the inquiries become unscoreable your scores will exceed what they were pre-new accounts, but I have a feeling that will happen sooner, most definitely by 10 months as at that time you'll arrive back at or exceed where your age of accounts were before the apps.

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For a clean file suggesting there's an AAOA boundary at 6 months?  Or an AOYA one (more likely)?  I think we're reaching on this one .  I still haven't seen much to suggest that there's an AAOA boundary smaller of 2 years but I think it's almost impossible to figure out concretely... certainly not based on score shifting.

Dunno, trying to figure out new file scoring might as well be done with a Oujia board: just too many changes going on.  While I have some data from my early build I pretty much had to throw it away with how busy my report was at the time.

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I don't have any data to go off of here and with new profiles it's probably very difficult to get concrete data.  I would say that in most cases though credit scores at 12 months are greater than credit scores at 6 months (all other things being equal) and the only factors really changing during that time are age of accounts factors along with the initial inquiries becoming unscoreable.  That being said, it would seem to me that age of accounts factors could be impactful early on.

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the feedback!
Those were all FICO scores. It's also interesting that back when my student loan still reported, it only reported to EX & EQ. The Repo reported to all three. Because of that, my score on TU was about 20-40 points lower than on the other two.

After both of these feel off, all reports showed the very same information, number of accounts and payment history. My scores on EX & EQ were still almost 50 points higher with a 770 & 769, compared to 735 on TU.

Interestingly enough, after the discover started reporting, the scores on EX & EQ dropped massively, but the score on TU not so much -> all three scores are now only a few points apart.

If yiu wish, i will provide you guys with a spreadsheet and all necessary information in the next couple of days (and keep updating it through the next months) so we can all keep an eye on how AAoA amd AoyA affects an almost fresh credit history together.

[expatCanuck]

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@Anonymous wrote:
...  I would say that in most cases though credit scores at 12 months are greater than credit scores at 6 months (all other things being equal) and the only factors really changing during that time are age of accounts factors along with the initial inquiries becoming unscoreable.  That being said, it would seem to me that age of accounts factors could be impactful early on.

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My understanding is that an inquiry stays on one's credit report for two years.  Are you saying that an inquiry no longer impacts one's FICO score after the first year (5/24 policies notwithstanding)?

[HeavenOhio]

For FICO, inquiries stop impacting scores after a year. Some have said that the effect of inquiries may lessen over the course of that year before becoming unscorable.

Banks, of course, can do what they want with the information on your report. Chase, for instance, is known for being more sensitive to inquiries and (particularly) new accounts than FICO is.

[Anonymous]

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@expatCanuck wrote:

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My understanding is that an inquiry stays on one's credit report for two years.  Are you saying that an inquiry no longer impacts one's FICO score after the first year (5/24 policies notwithstanding)?

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That is 100% correct.  Once an inquiry hits 1 year in age it doesn't impact your FICO score at all.  Not even 1 point.  It is still visible for another year however, so anyone doing a manual review will be able to see your inquiry that's 1-2 years old.  Some say that inquiries over the course of that 1 year lose their sting as time passes, where others say that their impact is 100% until they hit the 1 year mark and become 0%.  IMO, it's too tough to tell, as inquiries only impact score a very small amount.  If one is impacting, say, 5 points... how do we know if all 5 came off at the 1 year mark, or if 2 came off at 6 months and 3 came off at 1 year?  There are too many other factors and variables at play to really tell with such a small impact scoring factor IMO.  If you're talking a single major baddie for example that's worth 50-100 points, certainly it's easy to quantify the amount one of those is "worth" when it comes off.  With an inquiry however, with so few points at stake there's no way to know if they are all related to the inquiry or if they also include other factors.