Experian 60 mo (5y) AAOA boundary: update 5/4/19

[Revelate]

Going to start using this top page to summarize the thread:

EX FICO 2: 60 month (5 year) AAOA change, tested concretely and isolated specifically for it.  Score and reason code shifts match identically for going above or below this line.

EX FICO 8: Appears to be a line at 60 months, ruled out the 11 year AOOA on EQ FICO 8 but was a small change (+3) and then going below with a new account lost -29.  I don't have good reason codes though for FICO 8 cause CMS's are not great for that score.  I will try to dig something out of the industry option reason codes but that isn't exact.

Actually it is a line for EX FICO 8 AU, backed by reason code shift with AAOA and Inquiries swapping identically to the EX FICO 2 reason codes.  I'm making a liberal assumption that the Classic score behaves the same on AAOA; Bankcard 8 does have AAOA on top as of 5/4, but was too high to get 5/3 reason codes... with the New Account now in the #2 slot on that score, maybe it will stay below 850 when I get back above 5 years. 

	4/30/19	5/1/19	Change	5/3/19	5/4/19	Change
EX 8	817	820	3	820	794	-26
EX 2	777	786	9	786	777	-9

Data notes:

• Revolving balances held fixed, $536/$25000 only revolver reporting a balance.
• Accounts with balances similarly held fixed, with the exception of the Citi DC reporting on 5/4.  18 open -> 19 open on that date
• When Citi reported, it reported $0 and as such should not have impacted anything but age metrics: an additional revolver would not matter for FICO 8 and accounts with balances was already pushed off FICO 2 reason codes and the score shift was identical ruling out a change there too.
• Experian is a top 8 scorecard on both EX FICO 8 and FICO 2: new accounts, inquiries, and a CFA none of which buckets into the derogatory scorecards.

Timeline:

• 5/1/19: Ticked over 60 mo (5y) AAOA; also ticked over 11 years AOOA (conflated datapoint)
• 5/2/19-5/3/19: nothing impacted credit, US Bank auto loan reported a 5k reduction in balance but no score changes
• 5/4/19: Citi DC reported at $0; AAOA 60 months to 58 months, AOOA still 11 years which isolates the AAOA change.

EX FICO 2 reason codes 4/30/19:

1. Short Account History
2. Seeking Credit
3. New Accounts
4. CFA

EX FICO 2 reason codes 5/1/19:

1. Seeking Credit
2. Short Account History
3. New Accounts
4. CFA

EX FICO 2 reason codes 5/4/19:

1. Short Account History
2. Seeking Credit
3. New Accounts
4. CFA

***** Original post:

It was a shift caught, scores moved and reason code moved. Short history which I am very sure is explicitly AAOA dropped from #1 to #2 on EX FICO 2. I also got a positive shift on EX FICO 8 (+3 points) but the FICO 2 with reason codes is concrete.

I will say my oldest did tick over 11 years which makes this a little unclean but this datapoint does look solid.

Posting pictures cause on mobile, well if I can haha. Will document better later but I do have pictures so it happened!

No additional inquiries no extra accounts reported, other than the oldest account awkwardness this is a gold standard datapoint.

[Anonymous]

I don't know, 11 years on AoOA is a bit too concrete of an age point for me to call this clean isolation to 60 months AAoA.  Had you said AoOA moved to 10 years 11 months or something else I'd agree with you, but as it is now it's too open to multiple variables possibly being the cause.

[Anonymous]

Forgive me Rev, which scorecard are you on? clean aged thick new? I got 2 points out of this threshold. Thank you for confirming because mine was admittedly not gold standard.🥴 You are the man!

I got 3 points at 66, so watch that let me know what happens in six months, too.

[Anonymous]

With the reason code shift I think we’ve got to hand this one to Rev, not to mention it backs up my isolation to between 60-63 months being a threshold BBS?

[Revelate]

Birdman:

Clean (Inquiries, CFA, new accounts)
Thick (lots of accounts TU FICO 4 complains about too many account haha)

BBS: yeah maybe, but the Short History reason code tracks with the TU FICO 8 reason codes from the monitoring service which were AAOA.

11 years oldest has never been theorized as a breakpoint, but I will try to firm this up when Equifax ticks over 5 years AAOA too as that will be isolated from the oldest account bit (AAOA is different on all three bureaus cause of missing tradelines)

[Anonymous]

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@Revelate wrote:

11 years oldest has never been theorized as a breakpoint, but I will try to firm this up when Equifax ticks over 5 years AAOA too as that will be isolated from the oldest account bit (AAOA is different on all three bureaus cause of missing tradelines)

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Sounds good, as that would better isolate the AAoA test variable.

[Anonymous]

The more confirmation, the more solid the DP. Look at how many times I tested my no revolving penalty? Back and forth back and forth let’s make triple and quadruple sure. Often times you learn more in the midst because as we know, it’s definitely not a simple algorithm by any means of the word. LOL. We’ve got a great group of people here though; this is a great forum.

[Revelate]

Except for the darned software can’t seem to switch to non-mobile to post pictures during my break hah.

I will see about getting that tonight before bed, more work to do

[Revelate]

Oh there was an easier way to rule out the oldest account, look at Equifax since I had a datapoint from 4/29.

Going to have to compare more this weekend when I have some slack time with a non-work computer but EQ FICO 8 did not move but EQ FICO 5 did, up to a 740 now on EQ FICO 5 which is better than I expected anytime soon, but I think may be something else with this score like getting down to 3 accounts with balance.

Either way it is concrete that 11 years AOOA is not a breakpoint for EQ FICO 8 on a top 8 scorecard so it seems unlikely that it would be on EX.

[Anonymous]

I do agree. I’d like to know where that breakpoint is but I just don’t think it’s at 11. I’m thinking more like 12, 18 or 25. And I really favor 18 and 25, but who knows it may be at some halfway breakpoint like 18.5.