FICO Score 8 Master thread: what we know, what we think, what we are still learning

[Anonymous]

Thanks @Trudy ! I'm finishing editing now, then it'll be up to OP and everyone where to go from there. Are you telling me none of your score 8s were affected? Wonder if it applies to 8 also then? Maybe I should note that it may not apply to 8, if you saw no movement there, tho not conclusive due to differing thresholds potentially.

Yes, I put some serious work into this one, but OP gave me something to work from! Thanks to him and the entire forum!

Let the comments begin! @Anonymous There you go, take it from there and edit and do as you see fit! Posts 13 and 14!

[Trudy]

8's were solid, just all of my EX2 scores dropped.  Saw the change through my EX subscription.  Pulled 3B with MyFICO on 4/11, after the removal on EX 4/7. [CC, -7, MTG, -6 & Auto, -5].

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@Anonymous wrote:

Thanks @Trudy ! I'm finishing editing now, then it'll be up to OP and everyone where to go from there. Are you telling me none of your score 8s were affected? Wonder if it applies to 8 also then? Maybe I should note that it may not apply to 8, if you saw no movement there, tho not conclusive due to differing thresholds potentially.

Yes, I put some serious work into this one, but OP gave me something to work from! Thanks to him and the entire forum!

Let the comments begin! @Anonymous There you go, take it from there and edit and do as you see fit! Posts 13 and 14!

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[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

INSTALLMENT

- Installment loans: go by aggregate installment utilization of all open installment loans (current total balances divided by the total original loan amounts) The largest threshold (biggest point award) comes when B/L falls below the 9% threshold per MyFICO Contributor @SouthJamaica See SSL thread for detailed information on a strategy discovered and devised by our esteemed Moderator Emeritus @Revelate.. A smaller award is believed to have a threshold ~65%. Some have reported a few points at higher thresholds. [Our MyFICO Contributor @Anonymous confirmed the breakpoints are < the whole numbers, e.g. 9%, rather that <8.9%, which was a long running controversy]

[Our MyFICO Contributor @Anonymous confirmed (proof) the breakpoints are ≤ the whole numbers, e.g. 9%, rather that <8.9%, which was a long running controversy]

There is no doubt in my mind that FICO is taking the ceiling of the utilization calculation. CEILING(9.0, 1) using Excel will return 9, as will CEILING(8.999999999,1).

2. Inquiries More on inquiries in general on this thread.

- Inquiries may count for 0-22 FICO points (MyFICO Contributor @Anonymous experienced a 22 point drop for one inquiry on a young/thin scorecard.)

- Inquiries may count for 0-20 FICO points (MyFICO Contributor @Anonymous experienced a 20 point drop for one inquiry on a young/thin scorecard. Proof. )

[Anonymous]

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@Trudy wrote:

That same old closed account that fell off and reduced my AAoA from 11y11m to 11y8m, something not considered significant but reduced all of my EX2 scores, fell off EQ & TU within the last week (per CK and MyFICO - got an alert for TU)

In your original thread on this, posted here, you calculated AAoRA and found it to be:

4/6 AAoRA = 13y6m

4/7 AAoRA = 13y4m

I have this hypothesis that these unusual score changes all happen when some aging value is a multiple of 3. It's holding true so far on my own profile. It might not show on the 3 usual aging values we all know and love, but maybe there really is something to AAoRA or AoYRA. Hardly anyone has been tracking it, so it can't just be ruled out entirely.

13y6m (multiple of 3, score gain) to 13y4m (score drop) certainly fits with what I have found.

[Anonymous]

Definitely would be nice to have more testing on these metrics. Also, I'd argue there HAS to be something with these additional aging metrics, as the negative reason codes generated by the FICO algorithm reference them.

Whether @Trudy 's drop was AAORA or increased number of accounts with a balance for dropping a closed account will have to be replicated to learn more. BUT, now that we are thinking about these and some of us are tracking them, we will learn more.

@Anonymous Edits made, thank you!

[Trudy]

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@Anonymous wrote:

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In your original thread on this, posted here, you calculated AAoRA and found it to be:

4/6 AAoRA = 13y6m

4/7 AAoRA = 13y4m

I have this hypothesis that these unusual score changes all happen when some aging value is a multiple of 3. It's holding true so far on my own profile. It might not show on the 3 usual aging values we all know and love, but maybe there really is something to AAoRA or AoYRA. Hardly anyone has been tracking it, so it can't just be ruled out entirely.

13y6m (multiple of 3, score gain) to 13y4m (score drop) certainly fits with what I have found.

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Yep, I think Revelate inquired about AAoRA and I worked up and provided those numbers.  Very interesting concept although our profiles are very different but who knows with FICO???  Something I will look at going forward.  Thanks CassieCard!

I was truly searching on that post because nothing known seemed to account for the drop in ALL EX2. (although I know everything's not known). EX is easy to follow due to the subscription, but not always easy to determine the reason for changes.  I simply couldn't figure out what could cause it until @Anonymous brought up closed accts which would suggest there's a threshold on EX2's between 11y11m and 11y8m.  Not sure the other bureaus will provide an answer since each bureaus has their "own thang" going on, but will see.

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:
Whether @Trudy 's drop was AAORA or increased number of accounts with a balance for dropping a closed account will have to be replicated to learn more. BUT, now that we are thinking about these and some of us are tracking them, we will learn more.

My TU 4 had a change in score factors that involved 'Too many accounts with a balance' showing up, but only when the 4th card reported.

See here.

The 8's just didn't care.

[Anonymous]

@Trudy Think you got a typo? When I brought up closed accounts it suggested dropping the closed account lowered your number of accounts with a balance percentage. It's definitely hard to believe you would lose points for AAOA around 11 years when common wisdom says it maxes at 7 years 8 months.

And @Anonymous, the reason we really believe it was that metric was the shift in negative reason codes. I think that makes it explicit, so I tend not to think it was AAORA in this case, though I definitely believe in the metric and also the possibility of thresholds falling on multiples of 3.

[Trudy]

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@Anonymous wrote:
@TrudyThink you got a typo? When I brought up closed accounts it suggested dropping the closed account lowered your number of accounts with a balance percentage. It's definitely hard to believe you would lose points for AAOA around 11 years when common wisdom says it maxes at 7 years 8 months.

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You are correct.  That was my initial thought before you brought the % of cards reporting to light.

[Anonymous]

@AnonymousThe idea of point gain at 3, 6, and 9 months AoYA has to be credited to Cassie; it’s MY belief the award derives from the payment history sector of the pie as opposed to new credit/AoYA.

Likewise the fact that installment loans can give points over time irrespective of thresholds was from a post by TT, so I cannot take credit for that. There still a lot of attribution that has to be done for the statements in there.