I had an interesting experience with the balance changes associated with my Chase Sapphire Reserve from December to current and wanted to share. Hoping one of you folks that know scoring inside and out can weigh in and point to what you think happened to cause the change.
12/19/22 I pulled my 3B report:
EQ 843 / TU 828 / EX 822
2 of my 7 cards reporting balances:
Citibank $8,000 (23% individual UTI)
BofA $8,092 (8% individual UTI)
Overall UTI: EQ 6% / TU 7 % / EX 6% (My Gemini doesn't report on TU)
Number of cards reporting balance: EQ 2 of 7 / TU 2 of 6 / EX 2 of 7
INQ: EQ 0 / TU 0 / EX 1
AoOA 18y 9m
AoYA 8m (EQ/EX) and 1y 9m (TU)
AAoA 8y 9m (EQ/EX) and 9y 0m (TU)
From December to current, all of my accounts have decreased (mortgage, HELOC, student loan, Citibank, BofA) and 1 account balance increased, as noted below. A FedLoan student loan that moved to Nelnet had its balance move to $0 on TU, as well. Below is the timeline for the CC balance changes and FedLoan $0 change.
12/20/22: Chase Sapphire Reserve (CSR) balance increases from $0 to $191. Score change: EQ -3 / TU -3 / EX 0
1/8/23: BofA balance decreases from $8,092 to $8,007. No score change
1/17/23: Citibank balance decreases from $8,000 to $6,500. No score change
1/22/23: CSR balance increases from $191 to $1,890. No score change
1/31/23: FedLoan student loan closed balance moves from $72,542 to $0. Score change: EQ 0 / TU 1 / EX 0
2/2/23: HELOC balance decreases by $410. No demonstrable UTI % change. Score change: EQ 0 / TU 0 / EX +3 (I suspect this may be more related to aging)
2/11/23: BofA balance decreases from $8,007 to 7,501. No score change
2/16/23: Citibank balance decreases from $6,500 to $5,000. Score change: EQ 0 / TU 0 / EX + 3
2/20/23: CSR balance increases from $1,890 to $2,367. Score change: EQ -10 / TU - 3 / EX -8 
I have to say, I was rather shocked at this score change due to a $477 increase in one CC. My overall score drop due to the Chase balance changes between December and February were EQ -13 / TU - 6 / EQ - 8. If I had moved from $0 balance to $2,367 in one update I don't know if I would have even noticed this drop TBH, though it does seem like a steep drop on EQ, in particular. However, seeing that most of this drop was because my individual UTI moved from 6.3% to 7.8% was quite the surprise. I honestly couldn't believe it so I pulled a new 3B and scoured it to see if something happened that I wasn't aware of but there was nothing out of the ordinary. Just the balance change.
Finally, since this was a Chase card, I took the opportunity to pay the card to $0 balance to see if I would at least get my points back that I had back in December when literally everything had a higher balance except for my CSR. It's been about five days since I did that and my EQ has increased the full 13 points I had lost and my TU has increased the full 6 points I had lost. EX hasn't reported in days so I'm guessing it either won't report until the next scheduled reporting date or it's seriously delayed as compared to the other two. However, I think the fact that EQ and TU rebounded completely confirms the Chase balance changes were truly the cause of the dramatic change on 2/20.
Would love to hear thoughts. Is it possible there's some sort of individual CC UTI threshold between 6.3% and 7.8%? I've read on the forums some theories that each person's profile may have different thresholds but this was such a minor change it was surprising to see this happen.
Do any of you experts or aficionados have any thoughts? Would love to hear theories.
@atarvuzdar wrote:I had an interesting experience with the balance changes associated with my Chase Sapphire Reserve from December to current and wanted to share. Hoping one of you folks that know scoring inside and out can weigh in and point to what you think happened to cause the change.
12/19/22 I pulled my 3B report:
EQ 843 / TU 828 / EX 822
2 of my 7 cards reporting balances:
Citibank $8,000 (23% individual UTI)
BofA $8,092 (8% individual UTI)
Overall UTI: EQ 6% / TU 7 % / EX 6% (My Gemini doesn't report on TU)
Number of cards reporting balance: EQ 2 of 7 / TU 2 of 6 / EX 2 of 7
INQ: EQ 0 / TU 0 / EX 1
AoOA 18y 9m
AoYA 8m (EQ/EX) and 1y 9m (TU)
AAoA 8y 9m (EQ/EX) and 9y 0m (TU)
From December to current, all of my accounts have decreased (mortgage, HELOC, student loan, Citibank, BofA) and 1 account balance increased, as noted below. A FedLoan student loan that moved to Nelnet had its balance move to $0 on TU, as well. Below is the timeline for the CC balance changes and FedLoan $0 change.
12/20/22: Chase Sapphire Reserve (CSR) balance increases from $0 to $191. Score change: EQ -3 / TU -3 / EX 0
1/8/23: BofA balance decreases from $8,092 to $8,007. No score change
1/17/23: Citibank balance decreases from $8,000 to $6,500. No score change
1/22/23: CSR balance increases from $191 to $1,890. No score change
1/31/23: FedLoan student loan closed balance moves from $72,542 to $0. Score change: EQ 0 / TU 1 / EX 0
2/2/23: HELOC balance decreases by $410. No demonstrable UTI % change. Score change: EQ 0 / TU 0 / EX +3 (I suspect this may be more related to aging)
2/11/23: BofA balance decreases from $8,007 to 7,501. No score change
2/16/23: Citibank balance decreases from $6,500 to $5,000. Score change: EQ 0 / TU 0 / EX + 3
2/20/23: CSR balance increases from $1,890 to $2,367. Score change: EQ -10 / TU - 3 / EX -8
I have to say, I was rather shocked at this score change due to a $477 increase in one CC. My overall score drop due to the Chase balance changes between December and February were EQ -13 / TU - 6 / EQ - 8. If I had moved from $0 balance to $2,367 in one update I don't know if I would have even noticed this drop TBH, though it does seem like a steep drop on EQ, in particular. However, seeing that most of this drop was because my individual UTI moved from 6.3% to 7.8% was quite the surprise. I honestly couldn't believe it so I pulled a new 3B and scoured it to see if something happened that I wasn't aware of but there was nothing out of the ordinary. Just the balance change.
Finally, since this was a Chase card, I took the opportunity to pay the card to $0 balance to see if I would at least get my points back that I had back in December when literally everything had a higher balance except for my CSR. It's been about five days since I did that and my EQ has increased the full 13 points I had lost and my TU has increased the full 6 points I had lost. EX hasn't reported in days so I'm guessing it either won't report until the next scheduled reporting date or it's seriously delayed as compared to the other two. However, I think the fact that EQ and TU rebounded completely confirms the Chase balance changes were truly the cause of the dramatic change on 2/20.
Would love to hear thoughts. Is it possible there's some sort of individual CC UTI threshold between 6.3% and 7.8%? I've read on the forums some theories that each person's profile may have different thresholds but this was such a minor change it was surprising to see this happen.
Do any of you experts or aficionados have any thoughts? Would love to hear theories.
I don't see how you can possibly have determined all of those score changes (or lack of change) without pulling a 3B report on each and every one of those days, which would have been quite expensive.
@atarvuzdar wrote:Valid question, thank you. These are based on the alerts I get through my FICO subscription.
I had a hunch that was the case.
The problem with your analysis above is that you're giving the alerts too much credit. They are not what they appear to be.
MyFICO alerts don't provide reasons for a score change and they don't tell you the date the data changed or the date the score changed.
There are certain events which trigger MyFICO alerts. If there happens to be any difference between your present score at that particular bureau and the previous score reported to you from that bureau, the score change is tacked on to the alert. There is not necessarily any connection at all between the score change and the alert substance.
MyFICO explains this as follows:
Why did my score go up when I got an alert for something negative (or why did my score go down when I got an alert for something positive)?
The short answer: Your FICO® Score may change because of other events not monitored by an alert.
Whenever we send you a credit alert, we also send an updated FICO Score. To ensure you get the most current score, we calculate it based on your entire credit report at that point in time—not just the new information on the alert. This means your new score may reflect other changes that are outside of the things we watch for (see everything we monitor).
Sometimes you may see your score increase when you think it should’ve decreased, and vice-versa, but you’ll always have your most up-to-date and accurate score.
https://support.myfico.com/hc/en-us/articles/360038084633
Bottom line: where you saw a data change and a score change taking place at the same time, what you were really seeing was two separate, unrelated items, neither of which was necessarily timely, tacked on to each other. That's why you're having difficulty figuring out the rationale, it's because there is none.
This is truly fascinating!
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