Fico Score 8 Simulator

[Anonymous]

When using the fico simulator, how accurate are those typically?

[Anonymous]

It depends.  Some feel they are accurate, others like myself think they are garbage.  They produce score change predictions based on extremely limited input data.  There are far too many variables that go into scores especially when considering them relative to one another that IMO a simulator that asks 5-10 questions tops can't come close to replicating.  Some find simulators to be relatively close where others find their predictions to be off a ton, even 100 points. 

[Anonymous]

Ya the results on certain things made me skeptical. I could see how doing the negative things would,result in score drops, but some of the positive changes seem like a stretch. Curious to see how others were with accuracy.

[Anonymous]

For me, they've never been accurate.  A lot of the time they suggest things that simply don't make sense under FICO scoring.  For example, someone may have a handful of credit cards all with zero balances except one which has an $850 balance on a $10,000 limit card.  With respect to the utilization sector of scoring, this person is in a perfect place with all cards zero except one that's at less than 9% utilization.  There's nothing more this person could do to improve their score with regard to utilization.  If this person put in "pay off $850 credit card balance" into a simulator, the simulator would say one of two things.  One, no score change or Two, score increase due to paying down a balance.  In actuality, when this new $0 balance reports the person with this profile would likely see a score drop of around 20 points due to having no reported revolving balances.  This is just one of many examples you can come up with where simulators can be flat out wrong.

[Thomas_Thumb]

The results ZilchWorks provide for aggregate utilization do estimate a 0% drop. The model has only a few entry fields but allows you to look at key factors such as impact of new accounts, file age and type of accounts in addition to utilization.[the negative vs age field is generalized and really is geared toward aging of a 30/60 day late as opposed to more serious derogatories].

The table below shows the scores ZW gave a psuedo profile based on my inputs. Obviously, results don't really speak to Fico break points per se - which is to be expected.

[Anonymous]

Right, I don't think any simulators consider break points or quite a few things actually that those well versed on this forum would consider, which is why I feel just starting a thread and asking is likely to yield someone a better picture than a simulator can provide.

[Anonymous]

Simulator said if I added a store card, my EX would drop 5 points. My new walmart card reported this morning and EX dropped 1 point. Not pinpoint accuracy, but not bad. Hopefully it's fairly close in predictions on some of the positive changes I can do.

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:
Simulator said if I added a store card, my EX would drop 5 points. My new walmart card reported this morning and EX dropped 1 point. Not pinpoint accuracy, but not bad. Hopefully it's fairly close in predictions on some of the positive changes I can do.

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Perfect example of how a simulator can't possibly be accurate based on the limited input data. 

Adding a credit card could have a 0 point impact if someone has a thick file and opened an account already within the last few months and they don't cross an AAoA threshold.  Also if they don't cross an inquiry threshold they may see no impact from that either.

Conversely, someone who hasn't opened an account in over a year will see their AoYA drop to 0 which will impact their score from the "new account" and if they have a super thin file there's a good chance they'll cross an AAoA threshold and if they also cross an inquiry threshold (say 2 inquries prior but now 3) they could lose 10-15 points from adding a new card.

Too many variables for a simulator to accurately predict.  No doubt it shoots for somewhere in the middle to attempt to cover all bases.

[Anonymous]

I use it just to see what direction each silulation would do.  I had 1 credit card from a furniture store and it predicted a 20 point gain for adding one more.  I applied for another and saw 42-44 points across the board.  While it wasn't perfect I would have never thought to add another card to increase my score.

[Anonymous]

Right, but adding a card could increase a score, lower a score or have no impact at all on a score... both short term and long term.  It all depends on the profile.