How Accurate? Jump to 850 in 6 Months?

[Anonymous]

I currently have a 3B monthly membership with MyFICO. I am refinancing a commercial loan at the moment, and I like to keep an eye on everything, particularly my mortgage scores.

This month, after pulling my 3B report, I looked at the MyFICO simulator in a few different scenarios. I was surprised to find it telling me that in 6 months, my TU Fico 8 score will jump to 850. That seems incredible to me, and I do mean that in the sense of lacking credibility. It just seems far fetched and amazing to me. How accurate have you found the MyFico simulator to generally be?

I started becoming more aware of my credit about a year and half ago, have made of bunch of changes and conscious choices. But I’m still pretty young, and I guess I’ve assumed I had a longer way to go toward optimizing my scores and passing more thresholds, certainly to have an 850 like that. I’m super stoked with the crazy progress I’ve made, of course (and these forums have been instrumental), but I can’t really account for an 850.

My mom has passed away, but I wish I could thank her for adding me as an AU onto a solid few of her old cards. Pretty sure that’s what’s making the difference here if I somehow do achieve an 850 TU score this quickly. General thoughts? And how accurate is MyFico, would you say?

[dynamicvb]

Personally, I would not put a lot of faith in any of the simulators. They just don't take everything into account. I've had them predict fairly accurate for me at times and other times they are way off. With that being said and looking at your scores. I suppose its possible you may make it or at least get closer. 

[Anonymous]

I've used Experian simulator and it's been accurate thus far but I wouldn't put all my stock into it

[Anonymous]

Simulators are trash.  Ignore them IMO.

One of the biggest constraints to a perfect 850 Score 8 is usually AoOA or AAoA, which typically need to be 17-18 years and 7.5-8 years, respectively.  Assuming you've got that covered, an AoYA of > 12 months is also pretty much a requirement as far as I know.  I'm not sure if there have been 850 scores reported with an AoYA of < 12 months, but would love to hear about it if so.  That being said, if you're doing a loan refi, that will be resetting your AoYA to 0 months, thus preventing an 850.  Also in opening that account it sounds like you'd be raising your installment loan utilization (something that may or may not adversely impact score based on your profile) and presumably would be taking on an inquiry as well.  The chance is also there depending on where your AAoA sits that the new account could cause you to cross a threshold, possibly reducing score more.

[Anonymous]

I hear you. With those AAoA and AoOA thresholds, it would seem like my profile is under what is necessary for an 850 score. That makes sense to me. My AAoA is less than 7 years by long shot. However, as far as the loan refi goes, it’s a commercial loan and will not be under my personal name. I’m a garentor, not techno quality the borrowing entity. Basically, I’ll take an inquiry, but other than that, my understanding is it won’t show up or effect my personal credit in terms of new account or utilization.

[Anonymous]

Jeez, sorry about the typos. Writing this on my phone. Guarantor* technically*

[Anonymous]

I do want to add that this 6 month projection of a score increase does coincide with my AoYA hitting the one year mark. In 6 months, my youngest account will hit the 12 month mark and that is also when the simulator says I will hit 850 on TU, (still skeptical obviously).

[Anonymous]

If your AoOA isn't 17-18+ years and your AAoA 7.5-8+ years, an 850 would still be out of reach with AoYA reaching 12 months. 

Where will those factors be for you in 6 months time?

[Anonymous]

Here are my current profile stats:

FICO8(Inq) — EQ 805(1) | TU 816(1) | EX 789(2)
AAoA —— EQ 3y11m | TU 3y11m | EX 2y8m
AoOA —— EQ 14y4m | TU 14y4m | EX 7y2m

Just add 6 months, and my AAoA on TU would be 4 years 5 months, and my AoOA would be 14 years 10 months.

I agree with you. That all seems too young to me for an 850 based on known thresholds which is exactly why I found the MyFICO simulator projection so surprising. In the past, I’ve found that simulator to be pretty accurate. But this seems like too much.

Thanks for pointing out the 17+ AoOA and 7.5 AAoA minimums for an 850. Just to clarify for my own understanding, at least within the knowledge of the forums, are there no known cases of an 850 below these minimum thresholds?

[Revelate]

The current known thresholds aren't necessarily gospel, they're just the lowest we've seen reported.

I'm not sure where I'd be with a prettier file as we can't really quantify how much damage a CFA is at this point but without a new account, without 3 inquiries, and without a CFA I'd be above my current 827 and I'm still a month or so shy of 5 years AAOA and an oldest account at 11 years: I'd be closer for sure, but maybe not perfect.

File age breakpoints are known in general but not in specific, it's a hard thing to concretely test for TBH.  I don't think you'll likely hit 850 with just where my own profile is, but nobody can say for certain.