How accurate is the simulator?

[Anonymous]

The question is basically in the title. I am wondering how accurate these forcasts are.

I just paid $13,100 dollars against my CC debt which was around $17.3K, I think total available is 28K (maybe 25K). I have around 4K left on my two cards. I have two lates which are almost 4 years old and I am working to have them removed as they were literally $4 and $11 dollar bills!!! Yeah I know should have done this a long time ago...

My credit scores are as follows....

Equ-671

Trans-714 (note this report already reflects paying one card off that was at $4770/$5000)

The simulator puts my credit score at 741-781, and 764-804. It also shows that if I were to pay them down to 0-10% over 24 months my scores would break 800... Depending on a few unknows I could actually pay off the remaining 4K in the next few months. 

Can anyone confirm the accuracy of the simulator with real world results? How long will these changes need to take full effect? Can I expect an jump right away?

Thanks

-JJ 

[haulingthescoreup]

I can't confirm with accuracy from actual results, but I can tell you that they change for no apparent reason.

A few months ago, mine was projecting nearly 800 for EQ in two years, but now, it's saying that the best I can hope for is in the 760's. Quite maddening.

And no new baddies have hit, and util is still very, very low.

When it comes to the sims, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

[smallfry]

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@haulingthescoreup wrote:
I can't confirm with accuracy from actual results, but I can tell you that they change for no apparent reason.

A few months ago, mine was projecting nearly 800 for EQ in two years, but now, it's saying that the best I can hope for is in the 760's. Quite maddening.

And no new baddies have hit, and util is still very, very low.

When it comes to the sims, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

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While EQ is currently my lowest score when I plugged the numbers in it always gave me the highest target range. IF you have a totally clean report EQ rewards. Any negatives are dealt with harshly. As least in my case.

[Anonymous]

Cannot state anything but my experience and my actual is always in the low part of the range.  On the positive side that means the simulator is picking the right range for me.

[RobertEG]

The important thing to understand with the FICO score simulator is that it MUST be kept intentiionally vague.

The algorithms for producing FICO scores are trade secrets that are held just as secretive as the formula for Coke.

So the simulator only gives you broad ranges and criterion.  If it allowed very specific simulations, it would be reverse-engineered in a second.

So my answer is that it is accurate, but not very useful.

[MostlyCloudy]

I dont really agree with the ambiguity of fico simulators as previously stated. MyFico just buys the scores from TU/EQ, they dont create them. MyFico has nothing to lose and everything to gain by being as accurate as they possibly can. It makes no sense for them to purposely skew the results in favor of protecting algorithm's they dont even have access to from their own consumers who are paying for this service. Unless Fair Isaac corporation is in bed with these companies begging them not to be so accurate, I see no reason to believe this.

I just bought my reports with fico scores, and have since begun aggressively paying off my credit cards. I should have zero balances by next month. Fico simulator projects my score to be around the 730 mark. I will report back once I my credit reports have been updated. 

[Anonymous]

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@MostlyCloudy wrote:

I dont really agree with the ambiguity of fico simulators as previously stated. MyFico just buys the scores from TU/EQ, they dont create them. MyFico has nothing to lose and everything to gain by being as accurate as they possibly can. It makes no sense for them to purposely skew the results in favor of protecting algorithm's they dont even have access to from their own consumers who are paying for this service. Unless Fair Isaac corporation is in bed with these companies begging them not to be so accurate, I see no reason to believe this.

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Not so.

[Anonymous]

FICO is a licensed product of Fair Isaac.  Fair Isaac owns MyFICO.  MyFICO obtains CR data from CRA's, but the FICO score is generated by license from Fair Isaac FICO model.  It is true that each CRA has a potentially different flavor, meaning an exactly same CR from two CRA's will not necessarily result in an exact score match, though they usually are within a close range.

The Estimator is designed to give you a range.  But it is NOT in their interest to be as accurate as possible, because they want you to buy the FICO score, not provide a free estimation with nearly exact results. 

[haulingthescoreup]

Definitely not meaning to stir the pot here, but just as general info, here's how it works.

myFICO is the consumer portal to access FICO scores. (Lenders have their own process, naturally.) When you pull your FICO score, it is crunched at the credit bureau, not by myFICO, using that bureau's version of its commissioned FICO scoring formula. FICO/ FairIsaac/ myFICO don't maintain any of your credit records.

This is why when a myFICO score report shows something strange, we always say to check your full report, directly from the credit bureau. Sometimes the account info doesn't map correctly from the full report to the myFICO report (or to other third-party monitoring services, for that matter), but as your score is crunched from the full report, any errors on the third party reports that aren't on the original are irrelevant to your scores. Although confusing, of course.

Hope that doesn't tangle up anyone more than they already were.

[havlow]

I'll throw in my two cents here as well since I've been doing this for about two months now.  I've used the myfico simulator as well as the simulator over at Equifax and they seem to be close within about 10 points or so.  I know my personal experience with the credit card payment simulator was right on.  Then again I also refinanced a consumer loan (said it would drop my score) and it apparently raised it 16 points today on my score watch.  So as they say YMMV depending on what on your report!