Op, I tried to do some research on this and haven't found anything definitive. I've seen data points taking cracks at good guesses, but nothing solid. Maybe someone will come thru who has more data to answer the question.
@Anonymous wrote:Like OM above, I experienced the same thing with no score gains at 3 months or 6 months, but a significant one at 12 months. Cassie on the other hand experienced a gain at 6 months, as referenced by the linked thread above.
I guess all we can conclude here is that it's profile specific, as there doesn't seem to be consistency.
I don't know, your outliers are such I'm really starting to question CCT =/.
Also I thought your last account was years ago before you got clean?
The examples posted do not sound definitive to me.
If I recall, Cassie’s entire portfolio of revolvers is what reached 6 months, two cards.. In the case where someone already has years older CC accounts, there seems less possibility of the newest account making a significant difference at six months AoYA.
OP, where does this account fit with the rest of your card portfolio?
If I recall, Cassie’s entire portfolio of revolvers is what reached 6 months, two cards.. In the case where someone already has years older CC accounts, there seems less possibility of the newest account making a significant difference at six months AoYA.
OP, where does this account fit with the rest of your card portfolio?
@Anonymous wrote:
@NRB525 wrote:
The examples posted do not sound definitive to me.
If I recall, Cassie’s entire portfolio of revolvers is what reached 6 months, two cards.. In the case where someone already has years older CC accounts, there seems less possibility of the newest account making a significant difference at six months AoYA.I have been searching for data points on the AoYA 3mo and 6mo thresholds and I mostly find posts from people reporting 3mo gains with AAoA under 5yrs or so.
I've found that my own significant gains are related to the reason code text 'Length of time revolving accounts have been established' moving down 1 in the list at AoYA 3mo (+8 to +25pts on 24 of 28 FICO scores) and now at 6mo.
On EX 2 it moved off the list entirely and that score went from 721 to 733. Every single score that Experian Creditworks provides went up.
Revelate observed a loss of -20 points from opening a new credit card, which I think is going to come back at the 3 month mark.
I can't thank you enough Cassie for the analysis you're doing: it goes well past the fact that we've never really had a new file track their scores zealously.
The, well in my opinion close to confirmed, find that AOYA is tied to shortest revolver and that there's frequent breakpoints ties together so many stupid datapoints and contradictory statements over the years.
All those "AAOA change" reports I was absolutely confused by, I seriously only concretely found AAOA gains at 2 years and 5 years on my dirty files (derogatory scorecards didn't have your reason code at all prior to maybe FICO 9 Classic at least on TU and some industry options) and I'm pretty hardcore with regards to algorithm analysis... I was flatlined for years.
It also basically explains my data and why I didn't see a big hit (20 points = mortgage tier so I consider that a meaningful change) when I opened my auto loan or was playing reindeer games with First Tech: admittedly that analysis was made more complicated cause I shifted scorecards in December (singleton 30D late up and wandered away) but with new installment accounts from 11/18 and 12/18 I was at my max EX FICO 8 in 1/19 at 827... and then when I get the Citi revolving tradeline reporting I got spanked, approximately ~23 points ( -26 total but I had an AAOA change too that I'd tracked at exactly 3 points 4 days previously) and I'm sitting below 800 and if it's just revolving I went from 28 months to 1 month AOYA, and that, I fully get as a score shift.
It doesn't appear to be pattern or strange, it was just a scoring factor that was sitting right under our noses... and that leads to all sorts of interesting and practical things when it comes to refinancing or even mortgage orgination and minimizing score impact... or my reindeer games, it'd look weird but if I could find enough lenders that act like most of the ones I've tried in the past, maybe I can start trying to move my installment ratios without chucking 200k at my mortgage (which I don't want to do right now to be clear) without doing much scorewise, like seriously the biggest impact would be resetting my Garden date again, I'll deal if I can get that juicy installment tradeline ratio change.
ETA: or the obvious I didn't even think of before, if this holds up on the older algorithms then if DTI supports it absolutely take out an installment loan to clean up the revolving balances before applying for a mortgage, like total no-brainer at that point even on clean files and not just the dirty ones that I'd typically recommended that to.
It's just a great find, so thank you Cassie!
Anyway I'm not 100% convinced the older models work like this because there's still the "New Accounts" reason code and we still need some analysis but this is awesome.
I'll get a small datapoint perhaps to add as my AOYA hits 3 months a month before I hit AAOA 5 years again, magnitude of the shifts might be interesting compared to the recent drop I took on both fronts. My own little Christmas Credit Mornings 7/1 and 8/1 haha! And all I need to do is just keep my revolving balances fixed, no biggie.