The best statistical answer that I can offer, without pure speculation, is based on the report that FairIsaac made before the FTC back in 1999, which gave some data on how their model considered amount of time credit has been in use. In general, they reported the following risk factors for the length of time from the oldest revolving trade line. Pts are assumed as deducted from the 127.5 max for this category. However, this category also considers avg time for revolv accounts, which they did not rreport to the FTC, so the 127.5 is probably not the real baseline for this sub-category in thier algorithm, but it at least reflect the upper limit, and the percentages of whatver that upper limit are should still apply. It is probably lower, because avg time is also a factor. Yet the linear progression is obvious.
0-2 yrs, around 90% risk, and thus hit of 90% of the 127.5 in this category, which would be -120
2-4 yrs around 80% risk, and thus a hit of around 100 pts in this category
4-6 yrs around 56% risk, and thus a hit of around 70 pts in this category
6-10 yrs around 33% risk, and thus a hit of around 40 pts in this category
10+ yrs around 10% risk, and thus a hit of around 10 pts for this category.
The percentages are interpreted from the FairIsaac graphs presented to the FTC, and the neg pts are extrapolated by me from that data, based on 127.5 pts for this overall category.
This data is old, but the best that I think FairIsaac has publicly reported.
Message Edited by RobertEG on
12-05-2007 07:17 PM
