Litany of irrational score changes

[Anonymous]

I signed up with myFICO thinking I'd go right to the source of the scoring model used by creditors. But my experience in the past month or 2 has been very frustrating in terms of the seemingly irrational score changes.

Example 1: a $0 -> $90 credit card balance = 58pt drop on XP and only 10 on EQ

- trying to beef up my score to obtain a mortgage. Banker said that showing you use a card and pay it off is better than having it always have a $0 balance. So I put $90 on my card

- For this card, the % util went up to 12%

- For all cards, it was then up to about 1%

myFICO states that all 2 FICO scores are all using the same FICO 8 model, yet for this same event, there was 58pt drop on XP and only 10 on EQ.

Pics to prove it:

Image: XP 58 pt drop

Image: EQ 10 pt drop

Example 2: TU 32 pt drop...unexplained

- I get an alert. View it....32 pt drop. No explaination provided.

Image: TU 32 pt drop, no explain

Example 3: TU drop 15 pts for all bank card balance DROP to near $0

Image: TU 15 pt drop for balance decrease (On Mar 2, 2015 balance on all cards is $39)

Image: TU Baseline pic showing bank card balance 1 month prior (this establishes a baseline that on Feb 3, 2015 the balance on al cards is $390, which then proves that the 15 pt drop on Mar 2 was due to a balance increase)

Example 4: Removing disputed status INCREASES score 20 pts

After doing a debt validation with an OC, they put a note on the account that consumer disputes the information. When applying for a mortgage, the lender stated that they can't have these dispute comments on any accounts because the FICO scoring model then excludes them from the scoring, thereby artificially inflating your score. Makes sense. So I had this comment removed...the result, the score goes UP 20 pts, when it seems it should've went down.

Image: EQ 20 pt increase to remove dispute status

Example 5: XP decrease 10 pt for balance decrease

I like to call this one, "Damned if you do....Damned if you don't"

Remember Example 1 above where XP dinged me 58 pts for increasing my CC balance from $0 to $90. Well I figured I'd just reverse that and pay it back down from $90 - $4...util goes from 15% to 0%...and instead of reversing the 58 pt drop, they DING ME AGAIN another 10 points!!! **bleep**....really...**bleep**!?!?!?! What kind of "scoring model" is this...is someone in a room with a magic 8 ball?

At lease EQ almost gets it right...it gives me 6 of the 10 points that it originally dinged me back...maybe because I left a $4 balance instead of paying it totally off? (Again, I've read that having some small balance is better than no balance...NOT!)

Image: XP ding again -10

Image: EQ +6 on balance decrease

Example 6: +5 Points for Inquiries...get your points here!

Hard pulls are supposed to have a negative impact on your score...not in FICO 8 I guess:

Image: XP +5 for inquiry

I find all these discrepancies extremely frustrating, especially given the fact that the main reason I signed up for score watch through myFICO, was that I thought I was getting THE AUTHORITY on scoring from them. All these issues are just from the past 45 days or so...this is not over years...6 issues in 45 days! What am I paying for? 

I called up the myFICO team and asked them to take a look at example 1. They agreed that it didn't look right. Especially since 2 CRAs score it so drastically different but yet they are both supposedly using FICO 8. How could the same event report different score changes using the same "model"? Their answer was that I (yes me) needed to call XP and explain it to them and see what they say. WHAT!? It is FICO's scoring model. I subscribe to myFICO for accurate scoring. And if there is an issue (and they agreed it didn't look right) shouldn't myFico dig into it and have a discussion with XP to figure out how it is reporting so differently? Wouldn't they want to know why and fix it to improve their product?

I am willing to believe that maybe there are reasonable explainations for these discrepancies. Such that maybe there were other data elements that occurred on the same day that were really responsible for the point changes...but if so, then they need to figure out how to report it accurately. Afterall, they do in most cases report the reason for the drop...so if the drop is truly justified fine, but they need to report the correct reason if they are going to give a reason. 

In the end, I just want to know how credit report changes affect my score so I can then do the right things to improve it. But with wonky reporting like this, it's like trying to navigate by compass in a room full of magnets.

[Anonymous]

I say keep doing the right thing & your score will go back up.  I had a similar situation.  Just paying my small limit cc's, mtg & car payment.  Never a change in my score & suddenly it went up.  I did get some good reward cards & a new car payment since & my score dropped but I now know why.  No one really knows for sure what they use to determine your score.  1% is ideal for utilization!  I did do a lot of research on what the over 800's pratice & do the same.  You'll get a lot of good answers here from some seasoned posters.  I learned a lot in the ittle time I've been here.

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind that the reason given for the change is nothing but the event that caused the update in score. 5 events could have taken place, good or bad to affect the scoring. Not all events will cause an update.

Ex. If you have 5 credit cards with 1 reporting a balance..... Score 730 on January 1. On February 1, 2 cards report a balance. This would be a negative in FICO. BUT... Let's say on February 1 Your AAoA jumps from 1 to 2 years, Length of history goes from 7-8 and 3 of your cards age to 1 year old. Even though all this happened in this time frame...... You will get a score update of a balance increase..... But you better believe the score will be going up and not down.

[NRB525]

OP, you have a lot of score changes, for sure.

You also seem to have a list of disputes, perhaps lates? any charged off accounts? only a short credit history?

Are you rebuilding from a BK? The scores dropping into the 500's indicates something significant that is negative in your past.

For event #1, were all of your cards reporting zero, so you had no reported CC balances just prior to the $90 reporting? At the very least, going from $0 to $90 is "taking on new debt" regardless of amount and will cause score drops.

Thanks for the list of events, you've got a good start to the timeline to try to understand this.

Can you list all your CC and any loans, aging, credit limits, and how much typically reports?

And clarify please the disputed accounts or any lates.

[racer-x]

zigzag - Great lst post...a lot of time and effort put into it.  You laid out in a very detailed display what many, many of us have been seeing.

Lately, the myFICO mods, super gurus, and estabished guestimators have been avoiding this section of the forum.  They really can't defend the inaccuracies any longer.

Eric said what many of them say...something else changed, etc...I say to that, if I get an alert for a 58 pt drop because of a $90 balance reporting, and I don't see brand new 90 day lates or a judgement or a tax lien show up on my reports, then I call B S to that argument.  The argument that maybe a simple change in an accouunt not being as new as the day before could cause such a drop is lunacy.

They FICO system is screwed up now.  Not sure what they're doing. 

I had a 6 pt increase alert the other day on EX for this reason:  High revolving account utilization 82%.

In the same week, I had 2 new INQ's and a new balance of $154 report, that was previously $0.

It's getting to the point where you're afraid to make any changes at all.  Don't increase/decrease balances.  Don't change utiiization.  Don't get new accts.  Don't buy a house.  Don't buy a new car even though your daily driver might be on blocks in the backyard.  Don't attempt to get out of debt.

Maybe we should all just start living the Dave Ramsey life. 

[racer-x]

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@NRB525 wrote:

OP, you have a lot of score changes, for sure.

You also seem to have a list of disputes, perhaps lates? any charged off accounts? only a short credit history?

Are you rebuilding from a BK? The scores dropping into the 500's indicates something significant that is negative in your past.

For event #1, were all of your cards reporting zero, so you had no reported CC balances just prior to the $90 reporting? At the very least, going from $0 to $90 is "taking on new debt" regardless of amount and will cause score drops.

Thanks for the list of events, you've got a good start to the timeline to try to understand this.

Can you list all your CC and any loans, aging, credit limits, and how much typically reports?

And clarify please the disputed accounts or any lates.

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I had a $154 balance report this week (previously $0), 2 new Inq's, and an alert for "high utilization on revolving account 82% ' = + 6pts EX.

So a new balance reporting obviously doesn't necessarily mean a point drop.

[NRB525]

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@racer-x wrote:

zigzag - Great lst post...a lot of time and effort put into it.  You laid out in a very detailed display what many, many of us have been seeing.

Lately, the myFICO mods, super gurus, and estabished guestimators have been avoiding this section of the forum.  They really can't defend the inaccuracies any longer.

Eric said what many of them say...something else changed, etc...I say to that, if I get an alert for a 58 pt drop because of a $90 balance reporting, and I don't see brand new 90 day lates or a judgement or a tax lien show up on my reports, then I call B S to that argument.  The argument that maybe a simple change in an accouunt not being as new as the day before could cause such a drop is lunacy.

They FICO system is screwed up now.  Not sure what they're doing. 

I had a 6 pt increase alert the other day on EX for this reason:  High revolving account utilization 82%.

In the same week, I had 2 new INQ's and a new balance of $154 report, that was previously $0.

It's getting to the point where you're afraid to make any changes at all.  Don't increase/decrease balances.  Don't change utiiization.  Don't get new accts.  Don't buy a house.  Don't buy a new car even though your daily driver might be on blocks in the backyard.  Don't attempt to get out of debt.

Maybe we should all just start living the Dave Ramsey life. 

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Weren't there other things in the recent events which were pushing your score down immediately prior to this?

The FICO score model is complex, and so new inputs can change the dynamic of how the past history is interpreted. That 6 point increase is probably just a stabilization after a rough patch of score decreases.

In OP situation, I think there is other information not yet presented. True, without seeing all the details none of us can explain certain score changes. The usual situation here, however, is that these posts start out with one trigger (or a short list as in OP situation) and then there is a slow reveal until we get to the real reason that may not be this week, may not have been listed in the reason for change, but is driving the score changes nonetheless.

[racer-x]

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@NRB525 wrote:

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@racer-x wrote:

zigzag - Great lst post...a lot of time and effort put into it.  You laid out in a very detailed display what many, many of us have been seeing.

Lately, the myFICO mods, super gurus, and estabished guestimators have been avoiding this section of the forum.  They really can't defend the inaccuracies any longer.

Eric said what many of them say...something else changed, etc...I say to that, if I get an alert for a 58 pt drop because of a $90 balance reporting, and I don't see brand new 90 day lates or a judgement or a tax lien show up on my reports, then I call B S to that argument.  The argument that maybe a simple change in an accouunt not being as new as the day before could cause such a drop is lunacy.

They FICO system is screwed up now.  Not sure what they're doing. 

I had a 6 pt increase alert the other day on EX for this reason:  High revolving account utilization 82%.

In the same week, I had 2 new INQ's and a new balance of $154 report, that was previously $0.

It's getting to the point where you're afraid to make any changes at all.  Don't increase/decrease balances.  Don't change utiiization.  Don't get new accts.  Don't buy a house.  Don't buy a new car even though your daily driver might be on blocks in the backyard.  Don't attempt to get out of debt.

Maybe we should all just start living the Dave Ramsey life. 

---

Weren't there other things in the recent events which were pushing your score down immediately prior to this?

The FICO score model is complex, and so new inputs can change the dynamic of how the past history is interpreted. That 6 point increase is probably just a stabilization after a rough patch of score decreases.

In OP situation, I think there is other information not yet presented. True, without seeing all the details none of us can explain certain score changes. The usual situation here, however, is that these posts start out with one trigger (or a short list as in OP situation) and then there is a slow reveal until we get to the real reason that may not be this week, may not have been listed in the reason for change, but is driving the score changes nonetheless.

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When I paid $20k in cc debt a month and half ago, my scores went back up 30 pts to where they were..low 700's.

Since then, I had a new balance report, 4 new INQ's (2 ex, 1 tu, 1eq), and 82% utilization on the USuck account.  All negative factors that should have decreased my scores, but instead they increased. 

I am waiting for a new $10k CC to report, and a $8500 SP CLI....anxious to see what kinda havoc that'll play.

I understand your argument that sometimes 'full disclosure' of an op's file isn't always given at the onset.  But there are just as many or more, where it's easy to see that there is no justification for the eratic score changes.

I love it when i get an alert saying  'your score has changed - 693 to 690.'  ????? umkay, thanks for that detailed alert.  Hey, did ya also know that water is wet? (not talking to you directly CLD MASTER, in a props to you kinda way)

[takeshi74]

The problem is that FICO's algorithms are complex and people are often looking for a simple cause-and-effect relationship when there may be more than just one factor at play.  Further, most people in my experience have a poor ability to distinguish causal versus coincidental and they're not equipped to analyze this sort of stuff.  I'm not intending to insult anyone -- just pointing out that many are quick to attribute a cause when that may not actually be the cause or there may be other causes at play as well.

Scores are based on the data in reports so one really has to carefully review reports before and after the change to detemrine the cause(s).  It's difficult to do this via a forum discussion as the information provided by the person asking for assistance is filtered by the person making the request and often we have to really dig for more information to properly analyze.  We would really need full access to one's reports before and after the change to do a proper analysis but, on the other hand, I could certainly understand why people would be uncomfortable disclosing such information.

As stated above, one can't rely solely on what the alerts state to cover all potential changes.  Only certain activity triggers the alerts while there are many changes that can impact scoring.

Further, CRA's don't all have the exact same data or update at exactly the same time so that needs to be taken into account as well.

I don't recommend obsessing over the specific numbers.  The odds are against anyone trying to reverse engineer any of the algorithms.  You're just likely to drive yourself crazy over the ups and downs and the why behind every point change.  However, we do know the relative impacts of the standard factors

http://www.myfico.com/crediteducation/whatsinyourscore.aspx

and we do know that scores are based on report data.  We also know that scoring models tend to favor not only lower revolving utilization and fewer reporting balances for revolving accounts.  Give that I recommend focusing on the data in the reports.  Good data will lead to good scores.

I'd be happy to try to help the OP to understand the changes but the "evidence" presented by the OP is of no use.  Screenshots from myFICO will not help.  The data is where the explanation will come from.

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@Anonymous wrote:

trying to beef up my score to obtain a mortgage.

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Keep in mind that many mortgage lenders don't use FICO 8 scores anyway.  If you want to see what your mortgage lender sees then you'll need to know what models and CRA's they're pulling.

[cashnocredit]

Keep in mind that FICO score models are only models for the creation of the scoring algorithms. The algorithms themselves are generated based only on the data from each CRA that offers that FICO score. Identical credit report information can and will usually result in different FICO scores even for the same model.

This may seem erratic but FICO justifies it based on the fact each CRA tends to have different creditor reporting and demographics. Especially geographical ones. Over time they have been converging but the process of FICO score generation remains one that is specific to each CRA's data.

VantageScore's approach has been to identify common reporting characteristics in each CRA and only use those so that people with the exact same accounts reporting generate the same scores. FICO's rebuttal is that this approach yields a less predictive score by ingoring the differences.