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Loss 9 Points Yesterday

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Iusedtolurk
Established Contributor

Loss 9 Points Yesterday

Yesterday checking my Ex I saw I had lost 9 points and I guess the major change was going from 10/12 accounts reporting balances to 12/12. (Had changed due dates of 2 cap1 cards and didn't expect them to report just yet).

 

My thinking is if the 10/12 going to 12/12 caused the drop then last month when I went from 12/12 to 10/12 (JAN 14-15) I should have gained some points and that didn't happen. (score stayed the same for the rest of the month until I went from 716 to 706 on Feb 1 after hitting 3 years AoOA.)

 

Also I believe I have read an earlier post from @Anonymous that may have suggested a revolving balance threshold of +/- 5000 dollars may cause some movement in scores but as I have went slightly above and below this metric lately no movement of scores occured +/-.

 

Changes shown in pic:

experian-score-drop-2-11-21.JPG

Message 1 of 21
20 REPLIES 20
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday

Sounds like you've got a bunch of variables at play that may be conflicting with one another.  You are correct that if moving from 10 accounts with a balance to 12 caused a score drop of X, moving from 12 accounts with a balance to 10 would cause a score gain of X.  The fact that these two pieces of data doing align (X isn't the same) proves that there was another score-impacting factor at play at least one of those times.

Message 2 of 21
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday


@Iusedtolurk wrote:

Yesterday checking my Ex I saw I had lost 9 points and I guess the major change was going from 10/12 accounts reporting balances to 12/12. (Had changed due dates of 2 cap1 cards and didn't expect them to report just yet).

 

My thinking is if the 10/12 going to 12/12 caused the drop then last month when I went from 12/12 to 10/12 (JAN 14-15) I should have gained some points and that didn't happen. (score stayed the same for the rest of the month until I went from 716 to 706 on Feb 1 after hitting 3 years AoOA.)

 

Also I believe I have read an earlier post from @Anonymous that may have suggested a revolving balance threshold of +/- 5000 dollars may cause some movement in scores but as I have went slightly above and below this metric lately no movement of scores occured +/-.

 

Changes shown in pic:

experian-score-drop-2-11-21.JPG


@Iusedtolurk you can't compare the number of accounts with a balance thresholds from two different scorecards and expect the same results necessarily.

 

So it appears there could be a balance threshold between $4604-4898? Maybe. But that could've been caused by the number of accounts with a balance metric where it did not on the other scorecard.

 

We think there's one somewhere around $5000. It's not at $5000, but we're trying to find it. maybe what you just narrowed it down if that's a balance threshold. 

bottom line the only way to know for sure is to repeat the action/reverse it and see if you get the same results, to determine which one it is, imho.

Message 3 of 21
Iusedtolurk
Established Contributor

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday


@Anonymous wrote:

@Iusedtolurk wrote:

Yesterday checking my Ex I saw I had lost 9 points and I guess the major change was going from 10/12 accounts reporting balances to 12/12. (Had changed due dates of 2 cap1 cards and didn't expect them to report just yet).

 

My thinking is if the 10/12 going to 12/12 caused the drop then last month when I went from 12/12 to 10/12 (JAN 14-15) I should have gained some points and that didn't happen. (score stayed the same for the rest of the month until I went from 716 to 706 on Feb 1 after hitting 3 years AoOA.)

 

Also I believe I have read an earlier post from @Anonymous that may have suggested a revolving balance threshold of +/- 5000 dollars may cause some movement in scores but as I have went slightly above and below this metric lately no movement of scores occured +/-.

 

Changes shown in pic:

experian-score-drop-2-11-21.JPG


@Iusedtolurk you can't compare the number of accounts with a balance thresholds from two different scorecards and expect the same results necessarily.

 

So it appears there could be a balance threshold between $4604-4898? Maybe. But that could've been caused by the number of accounts with a balance metric where it did not on the other scorecard.

 

We think there's one somewhere around $5000. It's not at $5000, but we're trying to find it. maybe what you just narrowed it down if that's a balance threshold. 

bottom line the only way to know for sure is to repeat the action/reverse it and see if you get the same results, to determine which one it is, imho.


It definitely makes sense that something is different as @Anonymous  has stated and I didn't even consider that as you stated @Anonymous  that it is 2 different scorecards existing between the data points and that may be the variable causing the differences between the points and perhaps the 5000 +/- threshold impact.

Message 4 of 21
Curious_George2
Valued Contributor

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday

Thanks for the DP, OP.

 

@Anonymous: I didn't know you had come to the belief that the balance threshold isn't exactly at $5,000. Is that based solely on this DP, or do you have others?

 

This issue is timely for me because I am in the final stages of setting up a test of it (and whether Amex charge cards are included or not).

 

From your perspective, what would be the most useful balance numbers to test in the $5k neighborhood? (scorecard = clean, mature, thick, with new account)

Message 5 of 21
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday


@Curious_George2 wrote:

Thanks for the DP, OP.

 

@Anonymous: I didn't know you had come to the belief that the balance threshold isn't exactly at $5,000. Is that based solely on this DP, or do you have others?

 

This issue is timely for me because I am in the final stages of setting up a test of it (and whether Amex charge cards are included or not).

 

From your perspective, what would be the most useful balance numbers to test in the $5k neighborhood? (scorecard = clean, mature, thick, with new account)


@Curious_George2 no I have never said it was at $5000, I do not believe. We have a belief that there is one around $5000. Based on the above, it may be below $5000, but I'll go check the Primer and see if I can find the previous reference that narrowed it around that range. Because there was a prior data point that put one somewhere in that range.


I'm sorry for any confusion if any of my statements weren't clear enough. This is the leading edge of our research right now, I think, we're starting to learn about it but we know very little.

 

@Anonymous do you happen to recall the thread where was a data point somewhere around $5000?

Message 6 of 21
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday

@Iusedtolurk yes and I feel that the number of accounts with a balance Metric would probably be the One more likely to be different between scorecards but I really don't have anything to base that belief on, it's just conjecture. 

Message 7 of 21
Curious_George2
Valued Contributor

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday


@Anonymous wrote:

@Curious_George2 wrote:

Thanks for the DP, OP.

 

@Anonymous: I didn't know you had come to the belief that the balance threshold isn't exactly at $5,000. Is that based solely on this DP, or do you have others?

 

This issue is timely for me because I am in the final stages of setting up a test of it (and whether Amex charge cards are included or not).

 

From your perspective, what would be the most useful balance numbers to test in the $5k neighborhood? (scorecard = clean, mature, thick, with new account)


@Curious_George2 no I have never said it was at $5000, I do not believe. We have a belief that there is one around $5000. Based on the above, it may be below $5000, but I'll go check the Primer and see if I can find the previous reference that narrowed it around that range. Because there was a prior data point that put one somewhere in that range.


I'm sorry for any confusion if any of my statements weren't clear enough. This is the leading edge of our research right now, I think, we're starting to learn about it but we know very little.

 

@Anonymous do you happen to recall the thread where was a data point somewhere around $5000?


Cool.  Sorry if my post came across as critical or accusatory.  That's not at all how I intended it.  I reflexively guessed that a threshold would most likely have been placed at a round number, so I was going to test $4,999 and $5,001.  Just didn't know you had already learned it's not there. I do recall a thread with some indication of a threshold in the four thousands. But my memory is it wasn't the cleanest of DPs. I'll try to find it. Was it like 2-3 months ago?

 

I only have a couple chances to probe for this because the interest-free periods on my carried balances are about to expire.  (Finances > FICO testing. Sorry. Smiley Happy)  So I'd like test where it makes the most sense.  Thanks for all your great work!

Message 8 of 21
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday


@Anonymous wrote:

@Anonymous do you happen to recall the thread where was a data point somewhere around $5000?


I thought it was yours. lol

 

"10th account reports a balance taking aggregate revolving balances over $5000, and I lose 12 more points." (Forum link)

 

Also, I brought it up some time ago when I was questioning why FICO asks about these balance thresholds as part of the FICO Score Estimator:

 

estimator-question-balances.png

Message 9 of 21
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Loss 9 Points Yesterday


@Curious_George2 wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

@Curious_George2 wrote:

Thanks for the DP, OP.

 

@Anonymous: I didn't know you had come to the belief that the balance threshold isn't exactly at $5,000. Is that based solely on this DP, or do you have others?

 

This issue is timely for me because I am in the final stages of setting up a test of it (and whether Amex charge cards are included or not).

 

From your perspective, what would be the most useful balance numbers to test in the $5k neighborhood? (scorecard = clean, mature, thick, with new account)


@Curious_George2 no I have never said it was at $5000, I do not believe. We have a belief that there is one around $5000. Based on the above, it may be below $5000, but I'll go check the Primer and see if I can find the previous reference that narrowed it around that range. Because there was a prior data point that put one somewhere in that range.


I'm sorry for any confusion if any of my statements weren't clear enough. This is the leading edge of our research right now, I think, we're starting to learn about it but we know very little.

 

@Anonymous do you happen to recall the thread where was a data point somewhere around $5000?


Cool.  Sorry if my post came across as critical or accusatory.  That's not at all how I intended it.  I reflexively guessed that a threshold would most likely have been placed at a round number, so I was going to test $4,999 and $5,001.  Just didn't know you had already learned it's not there. I do recall a thread with some indication of a threshold in the four thousands. But my memory is it wasn't the cleanest of DPs. I'll try to find it. Was it like 2-3 months ago?

 

I only have a couple chances to probe for this because the interest-free periods on my carried balances are about to expire.  (Finances > FICO testing. Sorry. Smiley Happy)  So I'd like test where it makes the most sense.  Thanks for all your great work!


@Curious_George2 No you're totally cool I was just worried you went to a bunch of trouble based on a misunderstanding. And it looks like Cassie may have found the thread where I crossed the threshold and got points, that's right I did! let me go read the thread and see if I can narrow it down, but there was someone else that had a possible change somewhere around there too, IIRC, let me go read this one. 

Message 10 of 21
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