Possible AAoA threshold exists @ 6.5 years

[Anonymous]

I noticed a 4 point drop on EX today.  An old account dropped off my report, taking my AAoA from 6.8 years down to 6.3 years.  I am 100% sure that this is the only change.  I pulled my scores from CCT about 2 weeks ago and then again about 5 days ago and after comparing them both I noticed the absence of that 1 old account from the most recent pull.

After seeing this -4, I started looking back at my archived scores to see if I could pinpoint a more precise AAoA threshold point.  In going back 4-5 months, I saw a similar +4 points when going from 6.4 years AAoA to 6.5 years.  Again this was a clean data point with no other changes, as reported revolving balances remained constant.  This to me means that there very well may be a small AAoA threshold at 6.5 years. 

Since I'm at 6.3 years AAoA now on EX, in 2 months I'll get back to 6.5 years so I'll have the opportunity to test this going back in the other direction.  If I see +4 points, I think it would be a pretty solid confirmation that 6.5 years is an AAoA threshold.  If that is the case, it could very well mean that more exist at half-year intervals.

I know +/- 4 points isn't a major change or anything, but for data point buffs out there this may be insightful.  If anyone has any before/after 3B report/score pulls that may surround 6.5 years AAoA it would be cool to hear if you can pinpoint something similar to what I see.

[sarge12]

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@Anonymous wrote:

I noticed a 4 point drop on EX today.  An old account dropped off my report, taking my AAoA from 6.8 years down to 6.3 years.  I am 100% sure that this is the only change.  I pulled my scores from CCT about 2 weeks ago and then again about 5 days ago and after comparing them both I noticed the absence of that 1 old account from the most recent pull.

After seeing this -4, I started looking back at my archived scores to see if I could pinpoint a more precise AAoA threshold point.  In going back 4-5 months, I saw a similar +4 points when going from 6.4 years AAoA to 6.5 years.  Again this was a clean data point with no other changes, as reported revolving balances remained constant.  This to me means that there very well may be a small AAoA threshold at 6.5 years. 

Since I'm at 6.3 years AAoA now on EX, in 2 months I'll get back to 6.5 years so I'll have the opportunity to test this going back in the other direction.  If I see +4 points, I think it would be a pretty solid confirmation that 6.5 years is an AAoA threshold.  If that is the case, it could very well mean that more exist at half-year intervals.

I know +/- 4 points isn't a major change or anything, but for data point buffs out there this may be insightful.  If anyone has any before/after 3B report/score pulls that may surround 6.5 years AAoA it would be cool to hear if you can pinpoint something similar to what I see.

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I do not know how anyone can be sure what caused the change BBS. My fico 09 score went from 825 on 4/18 to 836 today and as far as I know nothing changed except 11 days lapsed. Small credit score changes are a riddle I've never been able to figure out. Both were EX pulls.

[Anonymous]

Of course there's no way to be "sure," but isn't that why we start threads like this, to give others the ability to possibly test the same point?  If multiple sources are able to confirm the same thing, perhaps it becomes a solid data point.  If multiple sources site no change at that point, it would disprove what I've posted.

I think seeing a -4 at that point now and seeing a +4 at the same point several months back is pretty telling.  If in 2 months I see another +4 at the same point, that would be 3 times of seeing the same numerical change at the same point.  The chances of another factor impacting my profile the same amount at the same 3 times would be quite slim, IMO.

[Anonymous]

I will let you know in 2 years and 10 months if your theory hold true.

[HeavenOhio]

I just saw a two-point gain on EX that I couldn't couldn't think of a cause for, and it happens that my AAoA is exactly 78 months.

[Anonymous]

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@HeavenOhioI just saw a two-point gain on EX that I couldn't couldn't think of a cause for, and it happens that my AAoA is exactly 78 months.

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Cool, so there's a second data point.  I appreciate the feedback.  I'm sure as with everything this can be profile dependent of course.

I also think it's worth mentioning that on this forum very often when we see slight score increases and people are trying to determine the cause, someone usually chimes in with "it's probably just the natural aging of your file."  This loose statement can of course comprise many things, such as baddies aging for example, but "aging" in my estimation most refers to the age of accounts factors:  AoYA, AoOA and AAoA.  On a clean profile, baddies are of course eliminated from the equation, so looking toward the age of accounts factors I think make the most sense when thinking about slight score increases that seeminly come for "no reason."

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the insight,  BrutalBodyShots!  I will pay more attention. I had a drop in my Experian score with no changes. I am going to check it out more closely now. Again, thanks for the post.

[Anonymous]

Hmm. I just pulled my Fico 8 bank card score today as I’m apping for a new card this week. I am at 6 years, 5 months. I’m assuming tomorrow I’ll be at 6 years 6 months.. unfortunately I’ll only have a Fico 8 bank card to compare but I’ll wait to apply until tomorrow and pull it in the morning and donate $4.95 to the data share cause. No other changes expected between now and tomorrow

[Anonymous]

I would assume that most if not all thresholds that exist for Classic 8 would also be relevant to Bankcard Enhanced 8, but you never know.  If you're able to get a data point on that it would be cool for sure.  What is your Bankcard source and how are you able to get it when you want, or does it just refresh on the 1st of the month by chance?

[Anonymous]

On June 1st my AAoA on EX went from 6.4 to 6.5 years.  My EX score ticked up a few points, so I'm 100% positive at least on my profile that 6.5 years for AAoA is a threshold.

I only saw a 2 point increase, but one other change happened at the same time, as I went from AZEO to AZE2 due to a second card reporting a small balance.  This change resulted in a 4 point drop on EQ, so it's possible it dropped EX a couple of points as well.  Say the second card reporting a balance dropped EX 2 points, if I'm seeing a 2 point gain it would suggest a "real" 4 point gain came from the 6.5 year AAoA being achieved.  I'm thinking this could be the case, as 4 points is what I lost in dropping below 6.5 years AAoA a couple of months ago.  In a few weeks when my AZE2 card reports $0 again I'll see if there's another uptick of a few points on EX.