Score Simulator Question

[Anonymous]

In the next few months four bad items will drop off of my credit reports leaving only a couple undesireables and multiple positives.  I had one drop off my report last month and I got a decent boost but I see no option in the score simulator that accounts for items that will be dropping off.  Is there any way I can simulate these?  I have also been considering consolidating my student loans into one loan.  I have 10 all in good standing and here again I see no way to simulate this kind of action.  I have read several online articles suggesting I would see a decent boost in my score by consolidating but with no way to simulate I am unsure if I should.  I can handle the payments and the rate I am expecting is nearly the same as before so there is no real money issue driving the decision, its purely to help my score if I can.  I guess what I need is a little advice on the steps I need to take to reach my goal of 700+ by this time next year.  Specific actionable items is what I need.  Please anyone?

[Walt_K]

If the items are scheduled to fall off in four months, what happens if you simulate four months of on-time payments?  Do you see a score jump that seems out of line for simply continuing to pay your bills on-time?  I don't know what the simulator algorithm recognizes, but you could run that simulation and then update us on how accurately it predicted your score change (assuming all else holds relatively equal in the next four months, e.g., no major change in utilization).

[Anonymous]

I run two simulations to try to get at what you were suggesting:

1) Pay down the revolving balances to zero over the next 6 months which resulted in a major difference

and

2) Pay my bills on time for the next 6 months which resulted in a 20 to 50 pt bump.

Its worth noting that all these accounts that are dropping off are old and bad credit card debts, revolving as they say.  This is the problem I have with using the simulator option to pay them off over time.  For one I will not be actually paying them off and when they drop so does the fact that I ever had credit cards.  I have no other open credit cards.  The only open loans I have are student loans. No currently active/open auto and home loans.  Everything I own is paid off.

[RobertEG]

I highly doubt that the simulator has CR deletion dates programmed into it.  The FICO algorithms dont even program this.  Determination of CR deletion dates is done solely by the CRAs.  Until the CRAs block such information in your CR, it is scored.

[Walt_K]

I was originally thinking the items falling off were maybe old late payments rather than the whole tradeline.  My last late payment was December 2008.  In October of last year, I got fairly accurate results from the simulator when I tested making on-time payments only for a couple months as my lates went past the two-year mark.  It didn't seem out of the realm of possibility for the simulator to account for lates falling off, or at least assigning such a minimal value to the negative effect that the simulation would be accurate.  But recognizing and accounting for the deletion of a TL does seem even less likely.

[Anonymous]

So then my question really is:  What is reasonable to expect from a TL dropping off - purely and simply from the item dropping off?  What do others normally see as far as score gains.  Is there an average?

[RobertEG]

The CRAs really dont delete anything from your credit file simply due to expiration of the time periods set forth in FCRA 605(a) (e.g., 7 years for a monthly OC account delinquency, and 7 years + 180 days from DOFD for COsand CAs).

The so-called "drop-off dates" are actually nothing more than dates for blocking information retained in your credit file from appearing in CRs that the CRA issues after those dates.  Other positive account information, excluding the derogs that have been "blocked." will continue to be included in your CR.  So you continue to benefit from the positive information under an account, such as age of account and presence of, for example, a revolving line of credit, % util, etc., after the "drop-off" date for derogs.

Account deletion is an entirely different matter.  Accounts are not normally deleted unless a specific account deletion is reported by the OC or debt collector.  That is the way, in my opinion, that it should ALWAYS be.  However, the CRAs engage in a process, which in my opinion is improper, of arbitrarily dropping accounts after an extened period of time, usually 10 years from account closure.  This is, in my opinion, improper because it erroneously distorts the integrity of credit reporting and scoring.  The consumer loses the age of the account, and the creditors lose access to prior history.  But it is a reality of life in dealing with the CRAs.