Score increases from changes in installment balances

[ChemE_Bear]

I am monitoring changes in my student loan balances to determine possible scoring thresholds for installment accounts (either in terms of amout owed or % owed or changes in total debt).  I am also monitoring changes in my husband's installment loan and impact on his scores.  Some data from the past few months.  I'm fairly confident these are solely due to changes installment accounts and not any other changes in profile due to aging or other profile changes.  These changes are both on clean/thin(?)/aged/new account score cards. My student loans are listed as "personal finance accounts" for some reason, not sure if that has an impact on this data. This is what I have seen so far:

My changes (% are utilization changes for 2 student loans that have same % owed so aggregate and individual utilization changes are equal. Some missing EX data and limited EQ data)

1) FICO 8 TU +4 EX(missing data) with utilization 98% -> 96%, $24,446 -> $23,946, total debt $26,017 -> $25,517 (-$500)

2) FICO 8 EX +4 TU +3  with utilization 96% -> 94%, $23,946 -> $23,446, total debt $25,186 -> $24,686 (-$500)

3) FICO 8 EX +0 TU +1 with utilization 94% -> 88%, $23,446 -> $22,000, total debt $25,098 -> $23,652 (-$1446)

My husband's changes:

1) FICO8 EX + 0 util. 100% -> 99%, $27,014 ->$26,663, total debt $34,141 -> $33,762

2) FICO8 EX +14 util. 99% -> 68%, $27,014 -> $18,277, total debt $34,687 -> $26,301

Wish I had data on EQ but, alas, it doesn't update in myFICO.  From what I can tell, I do think I can say there are couple of small point increases going from 98% to 94%. The loan dollar amount doesn't seem to make sense as a threshold as $24k would be a weird threshold.  There seems to be no thresholds from 94% to 88% or dropping below $25k total debt.  There are obviously a couple of scoring thresholds jumping from 99% to 68% and/or falling below $20k owed on an installment loan (or $30k total debt?). I have less data on my husband's profile because of the large payment so I will continute to monitor my loan changes to confirm what is causing these score changes (utilization, installment debt amount or total debt amount).  Feel free to share any information you've seen about changes in scores due to installment loans!  I have experienced the bonus at <9%, but am curious about thresholds at higher amounts owed.

[SouthJamaica]

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@ChemE_Bear wrote:

I am monitoring changes in my student loan balances to determine possible scoring thresholds for installment accounts (either in terms of amout owed or % owed or changes in total debt).  I am also monitoring changes in my husband's installment loan and impact on his scores.  Some data from the past few months.  I'm fairly confident these are solely due to changes installment accounts and not any other changes in profile due to aging or other profile changes.  These changes are both on clean/thin(?)/aged/new account score cards. My student loans are listed as "personal finance accounts" for some reason, not sure if that has an impact on this data. This is what I have seen so far:

My changes (% are utilization changes for 2 student loans that have same % owed so aggregate and individual utilization changes are equal. Some missing EX data and limited EQ data)

1) FICO 8 TU +4 EX(missing data) with utilization 98% -> 96%, $24,446 -> $23,946, total debt $26,017 -> $25,517 (-$500)

2) FICO 8 EX +4 TU +3  with utilization 96% -> 94%, $23,946 -> $23,446, total debt $25,186 -> $24,686 (-$500)

3) FICO 8 EX +0 TU +1 with utilization 94% -> 88%, $23,446 -> $22,000, total debt $25,098 -> $23,652 (-$1446)

My husband's changes:

1) FICO8 EX + 0 util. 100% -> 99%, $27,014 ->$26,663, total debt $34,141 -> $33,762

2) FICO8 EX +14 util. 99% -> 68%, $27,014 -> $18,277, total debt $34,687 -> $26,301

Wish I had data on EQ but, alas, it doesn't update in myFICO.  From what I can tell, I do think I can say there are couple of small point increases going from 98% to 94%. The loan dollar amount doesn't seem to make sense as a threshold as $24k would be a weird threshold.  There seems to be no thresholds from 94% to 88% or dropping below $25k total debt.  There are obviously a couple of scoring thresholds jumping from 99% to 68% and/or falling below $20k owed on an installment loan (or $30k total debt?). I have less data on my husband's profile because of the large payment so I will continute to monitor my loan changes to confirm what is causing these score changes (utilization, installment debt amount or total debt amount).  Feel free to share any information you've seen about changes in scores due to installment loans!  I have experienced the bonus at <9%, but am curious about thresholds at higher amounts owed.

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Generally, in my experience, aggregate installment utilization has little impact until it gets to down to 9%.  Evidence of thresholds over the 9% one is very spotty.

[Anonymous]

I personally would be very skeptical what appears to be any gains from installment loan utilization moving a couple of percentage points... especially something like 98% to 96% which to me seems insignificant.  I would chalk up a 1-4 point gain to something else outside of minor installment loan balance paydown personally.

[ChemE_Bear]

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@Anonymous wrote:

I personally would be very skeptical what appears to be any gains from installment loan utilization moving a couple of percentage points... especially something like 98% to 96% which to me seems insignificant.  I would chalk up a 1-4 point gain to something else outside of minor installment loan balance paydown personally.

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I understand where you're coming from but I am monitoring changes in my profile *very* closely and this is the only change.  It is not aging, changes in utilization, or any other change in my profile other than the installment loan.

[Anonymous]

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@ChemE_Bear wrote:

I am monitoring changes in my student loan balances to determine possible scoring thresholds for installment accounts (either in terms of amout owed or % owed or changes in total debt).  I am also monitoring changes in my husband's installment loan and impact on his scores.  Some data from the past few months.  I'm fairly confident these are solely due to changes installment accounts and not any other changes in profile due to aging or other profile changes.  These changes are both on clean/thin(?)/aged/new account score cards. My student loans are listed as "personal finance accounts" for some reason, not sure if that has an impact on this data. This is what I have seen so far:

My changes (% are utilization changes for 2 student loans that have same % owed so aggregate and individual utilization changes are equal. Some missing EX data and limited EQ data)

1) FICO 8 TU +4 EX(missing data) with utilization 98% -> 96%, $24,446 -> $23,946, total debt $26,017 -> $25,517 (-$500)

2) FICO 8 EX +4 TU +3  with utilization 96% -> 94%, $23,946 -> $23,446, total debt $25,186 -> $24,686 (-$500)

3) FICO 8 EX +0 TU +1 with utilization 94% -> 88%, $23,446 -> $22,000, total debt $25,098 -> $23,652 (-$1446)

My husband's changes:

1) FICO8 EX + 0 util. 100% -> 99%, $27,014 ->$26,663, total debt $34,141 -> $33,762

2) FICO8 EX +14 util. 99% -> 68%, $27,014 -> $18,277, total debt $34,687 -> $26,301

Wish I had data on EQ but, alas, it doesn't update in myFICO.  From what I can tell, I do think I can say there are couple of small point increases going from 98% to 94%. The loan dollar amount doesn't seem to make sense as a threshold as $24k would be a weird threshold.  There seems to be no thresholds from 94% to 88% or dropping below $25k total debt.  There are obviously a couple of scoring thresholds jumping from 99% to 68% and/or falling below $20k owed on an installment loan (or $30k total debt?). I have less data on my husband's profile because of the large payment so I will continute to monitor my loan changes to confirm what is causing these score changes (utilization, installment debt amount or total debt amount).  Feel free to share any information you've seen about changes in scores due to installment loans!  I have experienced the bonus at <9%, but am curious about thresholds at higher amounts owed.

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@ChemE_Bear I think I saw a couple points on mine when itcrossed $20,000, so I might give a vote to that over total balances. I never really posted it I don't think but I saw you mentioned it so $20,000 could be a loan balance threshold.

True enough the major thresholds are 10% and 65%, but I do recall someone telling me about one at either 86% or 88% they felt sure of.

I think your test will be interesting there may or may not be more loan utilization thresholds out there, and we definitely need to document the balance thresholds. Good luck in finding them, I'll look forward to your findings.

[Revelate]

I don't mean to be a downer but I'm basically convinced there is at most one other installment breakpoint besides the well characterized one and it isn't in small chunks.  To be fair that might be different on some scorecards, but it seems to hold true on my data for the majority of them though I was out of the "new file" scorecards by the time I got my original datapoints.

I'm no longer tracking scores as religiously as I used to but with all the thin / new file account breakpoints that Cassie found vs. all the flatline ones I have for installment utilization specifically, while I'm still confident in my original datapoint suggesting there is a higher one, multiple is basically a non-starter in my opinion as there are a lot of other aging breakpoints at least with her profile and sounds like yours may fit there too.

I was going to try to setup a test again but apparently USBank credited me the accrued interest on my loan (about $5) when I made a lump sum payment and instead marked it paid / closed instead which just lost a non-trivial auto tradeline to try to offset whatever remaining mortgage I wind up with after I finally around to selling the LA condo which rationally should happen around the end of this year or at least the prep for it just under the one less thing philosophy.  Also not lost on me with property taxes coming due this month I don't need to be bleeding cash for it that could be better serve being placed somewhere else.  As a result I may be out of the installment testing game with a mortgage sitting at 3.46% hanging around for a long while assuming I don't see if I can better deal it next year.

[Remedios]

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@Anonymous wrote:

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@ChemE_Bear wrote:

I am monitoring changes in my student loan balances to determine possible scoring thresholds for installment accounts (either in terms of amout owed or % owed or changes in total debt).  I am also monitoring changes in my husband's installment loan and impact on his scores.  Some data from the past few months.  I'm fairly confident these are solely due to changes installment accounts and not any other changes in profile due to aging or other profile changes.  These changes are both on clean/thin(?)/aged/new account score cards. My student loans are listed as "personal finance accounts" for some reason, not sure if that has an impact on this data. This is what I have seen so far:

My changes (% are utilization changes for 2 student loans that have same % owed so aggregate and individual utilization changes are equal. Some missing EX data and limited EQ data)

1) FICO 8 TU +4 EX(missing data) with utilization 98% -> 96%, $24,446 -> $23,946, total debt $26,017 -> $25,517 (-$500)

2) FICO 8 EX +4 TU +3  with utilization 96% -> 94%, $23,946 -> $23,446, total debt $25,186 -> $24,686 (-$500)

3) FICO 8 EX +0 TU +1 with utilization 94% -> 88%, $23,446 -> $22,000, total debt $25,098 -> $23,652 (-$1446)

My husband's changes:

1) FICO8 EX + 0 util. 100% -> 99%, $27,014 ->$26,663, total debt $34,141 -> $33,762

2) FICO8 EX +14 util. 99% -> 68%, $27,014 -> $18,277, total debt $34,687 -> $26,301

Wish I had data on EQ but, alas, it doesn't update in myFICO.  From what I can tell, I do think I can say there are couple of small point increases going from 98% to 94%. The loan dollar amount doesn't seem to make sense as a threshold as $24k would be a weird threshold.  There seems to be no thresholds from 94% to 88% or dropping below $25k total debt.  There are obviously a couple of scoring thresholds jumping from 99% to 68% and/or falling below $20k owed on an installment loan (or $30k total debt?). I have less data on my husband's profile because of the large payment so I will continute to monitor my loan changes to confirm what is causing these score changes (utilization, installment debt amount or total debt amount).  Feel free to share any information you've seen about changes in scores due to installment loans!  I have experienced the bonus at <9%, but am curious about thresholds at higher amounts owed.

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@ChemE_Bear I think I saw a couple points on mine when itcrossed $20,000, so I might give a vote to that over total balances. I never really posted it I don't think but I saw you mentioned it so $20,000 could be a loan balance threshold.

True enough the major thresholds are 10% and 65%, but I do recall someone telling me about one at either 86% or 88% they felt sure of.

I think your test will be interesting there may or may not be more loan utilization thresholds out there, and we definitely need to document the balance thresholds. Good luck in finding them, I'll look forward to your findings.

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I told you that, loan went from 89% to 87%,  nothing else reports week before or week after, paid EX monitoring, MF monitoring, too. 

Points varied from 7 on EX, to 4 on EQ and TU. 

Yes, I know how to isolate the changes.

Nope, nothing changed between 5th of the month and 6th when loan reported.

I purposefully made extra payments because I read about 87% (or 88%) being a possible treshold and wanted to test it. 

It's a small loan, and each payment is roughly 2.1% of borrowed amount 

[Anonymous]

@Remedios Yes, I thought it was 88%. I was going to go look and come back, but you beat me to it! It was late and I was lazy, I admit it!

And you’re right, with nothing else reporting around it, it’s hard to explain it otherwise, because the balance thresholds certainly didn’t seem to be possible. And you isolated.

I did have had one other thought that might be worth checking. I’ve noticed that total amount owed is tracked on some of them, so there’s probably thresholds there as well, that would combine loan and revolver balances, but other than that I don’t see what else could’ve caused it other than a loan utilization threshold.

Would love to hear thoughts on it. @Revelate is there anything else that you can think of that could’ve caused it?

And it will definitely be interesting to watch as OP crosses 88%.

[Anonymous]

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@ChemE_Bear wrote:

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I understand where you're coming from but I am monitoring changes in my profile *very* closely and this is the only change.  It is not aging, changes in utilization, or any other change in my profile other than the installment loan.

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I'm not convinced.  Even if it's generally agreed about 88%, you also referenced something in the 98% to 96% range which isn't all that far off and IMO wouldn't matter.  That would be suggestive to me that there are tons of thresholds every (say) 10% or so which many people have over the years stated has not been the case.  Unlike other ingredients that can be retested multiple times to verify validity, this one cannot... so without several tests I'm always going to be the skeptical type.  A few points can come from any number of things that aren't easily seen on a CR.  We do not know every factor/threshold that exists with the algorithm, so while it may not seem that anything else obvious resulted in the score change you never know. 

[Anonymous]

@ChemE_Bear BBS is correct that repeatability is necessary to confirm a threshold. But you can’t repeat it until the initial discovery, so testing is important and we definitely appreciate your testing, sharing the data and your efforts. It’s very valuable and others will also test and, if its confirmed, we will add it to our common knowledge, but it sets forth the first data point so that it has the potential of being confirmed.

So keep doing what you’re doing and please continue to share and even if you discover it’s not a loan utilization threshold, you may find a loan balance threshold or a total balance threshold, who knows what you may find.

Keep in mind the algorithms complexity. In the past many thresholds may have been mistaken due to the lack of understanding of other Scoring Factors affecting Score.

For instance, balance thresholds weren’t realized widely and many people believed they did not exist. Many past scoring changes could’ve been misattributed/conflated due to the failure to control for balance thresholds, but at least they seem to be small point awards compared to utilization thresholds, so at least they’re not large errors hopefully. It seems balance thresholds cause more errors for those who have very large total credit limits.

Another example: age of oldest revolving account was not previously known to be so important, nor was average age of revolving accounts. I could find no threads where anyone had tracked those (unless I missed them). Everyone was tracking age of oldest account and average age of accounts; however just like with utilization, revolving ages are much more influential than loan ages.

It was thought age of oldest account may have awarded points at thresholds and caused scorecard reassignment at 12 to 20 years, but we’ve learned AoOA only causes scorecard reassignment and at 2/3 years depending on version. Any points were actually being derived from AoORA thresholds.

Very understandable how that was elusive because for most people, a revolving account is their first and oldest, so AoOA=AoORA. Can’t isolate there.

But by comparing profiles that had a loan as the oldest account versus a revolver for the oldest account, we finally made this discovery.

So we are still in the beginning stages of learning all balance thresholds and oldest and average revolving and loan thresholds.

I said all this to explain that your testing is important, because we never know what we may find or learn. so keep testing and keep sharing we do appreciate it!