Sudden change in trend line--13 pt. drop at TU....

[Anonymous]

Hello,

Having gone through a divorce about five years ago and ending up with half a dozen accounts into collection status in late 2006, my FICO score understandably took a big hit.

Since that time, I have been paying all of my other debts on time or early and more than the minimum payment due, and I have not incurred much new debt at all.

Accordingly, I have watched my scores rise incrementally to where last month (June) I was at FICO 631, for TU which gave me a lot of hope and encouragement.

Today I purchased a new TU score at My FICO and it had suddenly dropped 13 pts. to 618. 

I am quite familiar with much of the obvious reasons scores drop or rise, and I went over my entire report with a fine tooth comb and found only one change over the past 30 days and that was one old auto loan account (in good standing) had dropped off as it was ten years old this month, since DOLA. The only other change of any significance over the past 30 days, was my revolving credit ratio dropped (positive) from 69% last month to 66% as of today.

My question is, absent any other factor, e.g., a new 30 day late, or application for new credit etc., would an old auto loan account dropping off, due to ageing, have such an impact on my current score???

And, if so, if I continue doing everything 'right' as I have been doing, can I expect that my score will 'pop' back up in the next 30-60 days??

Thanks in advance for any input for those of you who understand this deeper than I may understand the process!

[Booner72]

I don't think you'd see any score movement from 69 to 66 percent, based on my experience with watching my utility closely for the past two months.

Whether or not the dropped account did it - I will defer to the specialists.

Sorry to hear about this.  Big Bummer.  I'm really scared of old good student loans dropping off soon.  I think I'm going to take a major nosedive.

[Anonymous]

As an afterthought, I am wondering if it is possible, that with my improving debt ratios and other positive aspects to my file now, that I was moved into a new 'bucket'?

As I said, no increases in debt, no lates, no inquiries, no disputes, and not seeking new credit; which have all provided me a steady upward trend for the past many months....until two days ago.....two steps forward and one step backwards.

I guess there is nothing really I can do, other than continue to do what I have been doing and then check the score again in 30 days?

When I run the score simulator it still shows me with a decent score in 12 months with 90% of my outstanding balances paid off, which is my plan.

[kjm79]

Hi NorCal1-

I had something VERY similiar happen with my TU score.  I have a Bk from '04 on my report and I had ONE account left that was reported as "included in BK" that just fell off.  This 'baddie" fell off, my UTIL went from 24%-20%, my AAoA and credit history stayed the same, even the what's helping/hurting your score portion stayed the same (minus the lower UTIL).  And bam, 15 pt loss.  This is within just a one-month time frame.  I didn't expect an increase in score with the lower UTIL as it wasn't significant, and given that the account that was about to fall off was over 4 years old, I didn't expect to see much of an increase there either.  But dang, sure as heck didn't expect a 15 pt loss when it fell off!!!  Super sad face when I saw that....

[Anonymous]

If that old account that dropped off was your oldest account, or the effect of it dropping off decreases your AAoA (Average Age of Accounts), then a 13 pt drop makes sense.

The quickest, and only surefire way to increase your scores right now is to pay down your revolving credit lines and limiting the number of CCs reporting balances.

You won't see significant, if any changes, from very small movements in utility, but you will see big moves if you go from 66% to 6% over the next year.

[Anonymous]

No, it was not the "oldest" and the oldest is still open, active, and in good standing.

I have gone back over the report several times and can find no 'smoking gun' reason for the drop, after a non-stop upward trend line.

I do agree with your assessment about the balances and getting them down substantially over the next 10-12 months.

Thankfully, I am in a position now to keep that goal on track and on time.

It it my hope that next month or by the one after that, I will be back with a positive trend line again.

Thank you.

[Anonymous]

Well as an update and some good news......My FICO jumped back up to 637, exactly a month to the day, from the sudden and unexpected drop.

I paid off two TL's during the month and sold my vehicle and zeroed out the associated FMC account.

When I use the FICO Simulator, I notice the the higher the score you are factoring from, the more positive the simulation results are, almost exponentially.

If I stay on course with my payment plan, I can be at 680+ in 3 to 6 months.

What I like about the Simulator is, it provides some hope and sense of where you are going down the road!!