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It is conventional wisdom among credit score enthusiasts that the negative factors shown with FICO scores are listed in a meaningful order. We have been told, so we tell others, that the factor listed first is hurting the score the most, the one listed second is the second most harmful, and so on.
I am sad to report that some caution is warranted on this subject. It may be true that the factors are shown in decreasing order of significance most of the time. But not always.
The two sets of factors shown below come from myFICO for the same bureau, same score, same person and same day:
The ones on the left are from my 3B Report dated 3/1. The ones on the right are from the Scores tab and are based on that report. Both are for EX2. As I have tried to show with colored lines, the factor in first position on one display is in third position on the other, and vice versa. The factors in positions two and four stayed put.
Obviously, since the order varies, it can't represent relative significance unless there are ties, but the example above would require a three-way tie for first, which seems exceedingly unlikely. For context, in this particular example, the "seeking credit" factor is driven by one scorable inquiry, 11 months ago, so that's worth maybe 5 points? "Bad payment history" is from a 30D in 2017, which probably costs 25 or 30. "Many new accounts" is referring to 3/12 or maybe 5/18, at an unknown points cost. "Accounts with balances" is for my 6/25 (assuming the denominator includes closed accounts), and costs maybe... 5 points? In other words, the only way the first three reasons could be tied is if a 3+ year old 30D costs the same number of points as an eleven month old inquiry. That seems impossible.
I saw this happen last month too. I mentioned it in a different thread and @Anonymous suggested I contact MF customer service to inquire about the cause. I did that this week. The people who answer the phones could see the problem but had no explanation. They forwarded a note to someone on the technical side and I got a response that said the correct factors are being shown but sometimes they are displayed in different orders. I asked which display is correct and they told me they are both correct because they show the same factors and "[t]he only difference is the order in which they are listed, which has no bearing on what the data is indicating."
As surprising as that is to hear, this is just one datapoint, and usually factor order is consistent across displays and makes some sense. In light of that, my sense is that the person who wrote that message to me was probably exaggerating a bit when he or she said the order "has no bearing." Still, it seems like perhaps we shouldn't be quite as confident in attaching meaning to the order of factors as we traditionally have been.
I'm not going for it. There's too much official fico documentation that says it's listed in the order of precedence.
I will grant that version 8 codes have always been poor, but they should not be coming up out of order. If official documentation is worthless, then everything else we've learned, we may as well throw out as well.
I think just like you get an uninformed CSR every now and then, well I think you got someone uninformed here. I mean look what happened when you brought it to the supervisors attention, they immediately knew it was wrong.
@Revelate MF is apparently saying code order doesn't matter. Any suggestions?
Couldn't it just be an issue with the MF software? I mean if you were to grab 4 reason statements at the same time from other sources EX/CCT, whatever and several others were showing them in identical order that didn't match what MF provided, for me that would be good enough to say that MF was displaying them incorrectly (for whatever reason).
I agree with that completely, BBS, but there are still several issues with that.
There isn't always a good source for all four reasons associated with a particular score. Experian's CMS is great, but it ignores the 9s and mostly ignores the other bureaus. Where can we get EQ and TU reasons?
In my example, the display that seems messed up is in the Reports section. Those stick around for later viewing. The one that appears correct is in the Scores tab. Those disappear quickly, right? (Is it when the next 3B or Alert-with-score-change comes out?) So unless the user notices a discrepancy promptly and does research outside MF to figure out which is correct, they will forever only be able to look back and see the maybe-flawed Report display. That stinks because people haven't been doing that with data they have collected to date, and the issue is so obscure and the cure so cumbersome that, realistically, almost no one is going to do it going forward.
That's why I used the somewhat measured words I did in my OP and title. I don't think the order is always wrong. I don't think it is incapable of communicating valid info. I don't think all conclusions we have based upon it should be thrown out. My one lil flukey DP doesn't pack that much punch. But I do think this shows us that some caution is warranted when drawing conclusions based upon MF's factor order.
I've never been a fan of the MF product and I don't even have a subscription (never have). The fact that members have been mislead for years regarding alerts and score changes is enough to make me not recommend the product to anyone. That said, I have no experience with it and their negative reason statements provided. Based on what you've said though, this sounds like another shortcoming of the MF product to add to the list.
I'm sure others can weigh in on other probable sources of scores and negative reason statements. It's been years since I've really dabbled in them back when I was doing CCT $1 trials all the time during my rebuild. Ever since I topped out my scores in 2018 following my rebuild I have not done any real pulls outside of my 28 scores on occasion just to see how everything else is coming along.
@Curious_George2 wrote:It is conventional wisdom among credit score enthusiasts that the negative factors shown with FICO scores are listed in a meaningful order. We have been told, so we tell others, that the factor listed first is hurting the score the most, the one listed second is the second most harmful, and so on.
I am sad to report that some caution is warranted on this subject. It may be true that the factors are shown in decreasing order of significance most of the time. But not always.
The two sets of factors shown below come from myFICO for the same bureau, same score, same person and same day:
The ones on the left are from my 3B Report dated 3/1. The ones on the right are from the Scores tab and are based on that report. Both are for EX2. As I have tried to show with colored lines, the factor in first position on one display is in third position on the other, and vice versa. The factors in positions two and four stayed put.
Obviously, since the order varies, it can't represent relative significance unless there are ties, but the example above would require a three-way tie for first, which seems exceedingly unlikely. For context, in this particular example, the "seeking credit" factor is driven by one scorable inquiry, 11 months ago, so that's worth maybe 5 points? "Bad payment history" is from a 30D in 2017, which probably costs 25 or 30. "Many new accounts" is referring to 3/12 or maybe 5/18, at an unknown points cost. "Accounts with balances" is for my 6/25 (assuming the denominator includes closed accounts), and costs maybe... 5 points? In other words, the only way the first three reasons could be tied is if a 3+ year old 30D costs the same number of points as an eleven month old inquiry. That seems impossible.
I saw this happen last month too. I mentioned it in a different thread and @Anonymous suggested I contact MF customer service to inquire about the cause. I did that this week. The people who answer the phones could see the problem but had no explanation. They forwarded a note to someone on the technical side and I got a response that said the correct factors are being shown but sometimes they are displayed in different orders. I asked which display is correct and they told me they are both correct because they show the same factors and "[t]he only difference is the order in which they are listed, which has no bearing on what the data is indicating."
As surprising as that is to hear, this is just one datapoint, and usually factor order is consistent across displays and makes some sense. In light of that, my sense is that the person who wrote that message to me was probably exaggerating a bit when he or she said the order "has no bearing." Still, it seems like perhaps we shouldn't be quite as confident in attaching meaning to the order of factors as we traditionally have been.
Not all "conventional wisdom" is wisdom
@Curious_George2 wrote:I agree with that completely, BBS, but there are still several issues with that.
There isn't always a good source for all four reasons associated with a particular score. Experian's CMS is great, but it ignores the 9s and mostly ignores the other bureaus. Where can we get EQ and TU reasons?
In my example, the display that seems messed up is in the Reports section. Those stick around for later viewing. The one that appears correct is in the Scores tab. Those disappear quickly, right? (Is it when the next 3B or Alert-with-score-change comes out?) So unless the user notices a discrepancy promptly and does research outside MF to figure out which is correct, they will forever only be able to look back and see the maybe-flawed Report display. That stinks because people haven't been doing that with data they have collected to date, and the issue is so obscure and the cure so cumbersome that, realistically, almost no one is going to do it going forward.
That's why I used the somewhat measured words I did in my OP and title. I don't think the order is always wrong. I don't think it is incapable of communicating valid info. I don't think all conclusions we have based upon it should be thrown out. My one lil flukey DP doesn't pack that much punch. But I do think this shows us that some caution is warranted when drawing conclusions based upon MF's factor order.
@Curious_George2 I believe there's a glitch and apparently the person that got the ticket either doesn't realize they're supposed to be listed in order of precedence, or doesn't want to fix it, or doesn't know how, I'd bet.
You are right as far as I know regarding sources and idk if both data stick around, but here's my issue: This is a premium service for which we pay a premium. I expect the data to be correct and it should be. We pay good $ for it and to pay for flawed data is... well, blasphemous to our hobby. What good is unreliable data? JMHO.
They should fix it. Has anyone ever observed this elsewhere?
I'm seeing it too. It looks like the 3B Reports tab EX2 has the wrong score factor order.
The myFICO Scores tab EX2 matches what Experian's CMS is showing me for the same date: 02-11-2021.
myFICO 3B Reports Tab | myFICO Scores Tab | Experian |
You have a short credit history. | You have a short credit history. | Short Account History
|
You have not established a long revolving and/or open-ended account credit history. | You have too many credit accounts with balances. | Accounts With Balances |
You have too many credit accounts with balances. | You've recently been looking for credit. | Seeking credit |
You've recently been looking for credit. | You have not established a long revolving and/or open-ended account credit history. | Short revolving history |
I just checked this again, this time using myFICO's Beta front-end.
The order is still different between the Scores and Reports (3B PDF) tab.
I would use the SCORES version since I found that matched Experian's CMS on the same date/report.
All the score factor order data I collected over my first year with credit cards came from myFICO 3B PDFs.
Edit to Add: This is my current TU 4 mortgage score. $912 = "High revolving balances" DANGER PENNY ROBINSON DANGER!.