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[Update] UTI 9% --> 10% = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?

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Valued Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?

I don’t see why the increase could not have caused the point change. I’m not saying it did ...we can by no means prove it, obviously correlation does not mean causation,but at the same time we cannot disprove that and it sure appears that way at first glance.
I do agree the text does not necessarily correlate with the point change although sometimes it can







Installment loan reported this month,so technically, I'm at 2 months, but AoYA points were NOT reset. When new CCs hit and it is reset, I'll put the number it is.+1,+2,+2(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)
Scores updated AUG 4, '19. Since then, 5 HP dings to add; will update again.
Message 41 of 59
Established Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?


@Birdman7 wrote:
I don’t see why the increase could not have caused the point change. I’m not saying it did ...we can by no means prove it, obviously correlation does not mean causation,but at the same time we cannot disprove that and it sure appears that way at first glance.
I do agree the text does not necessarily correlate with the point change although sometimes it can

I must be missing something very important about these daily reports we pay for from Experian, and the full reports we get from myFICO, either quarterly or monthly. Do they show everything that can cause a change?

 

I thought they did, but your reply and @SouthJamaica 's reply suggest they do not.

 

If they do show everything that can change, then my report just proved that there is either a point loss from crossing some mysterious balance threshold ($100?) or from passing one of 3%, 4%, 5%, or 6% thresholds on the way from 2% to 7%.

 

Because nothing changed at Experian from the day before - that I am able to see on a report - besides an extra month of ageing and a good payment for the last statement balance. I have a really boring credit file - 2 cards that just recorded the highest balance they will ever have on any day of any billing cycle until May (when I jump back to 8% from 5%).

27 FICO Scores + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

New CRADIS contacts, bearing 1 carom 10. Just think of EQ, TU, and EX as Cylon Basestars.

Message 42 of 59
Super Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?

It's a matter of timing, @CassieCard 

 

The MyFICO alerts aren't in real time

 

 


Total revolving limits 720500 (594000 reporting) 10/2/19 FICO 8 scores: EQ 744 TU 782 EX 746
Message 43 of 59
Super Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?

All right @CassieCard you insisted on my reporting even when there was a different rounding result on different pages at Experian.com....  I guess it's the programmer in you.

 

Today one account went from 19.6% to below 1%, causing overall utilization to drop from 8.17% to 7.43%, bringing 7 points back into the fold. Only thing, EX rounded 7.43 % down to 7% on the "Credit Reports" page, and up to 8% on "Credit Summary" page.

 

What does it mean? I don't have a clue. But I'm sure you and @iv will figure it out. Although I will no doubt be unable to understand your solution.


Total revolving limits 720500 (594000 reporting) 10/2/19 FICO 8 scores: EQ 744 TU 782 EX 746
Message 44 of 59
Established Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?


@SouthJamaica wrote:

It's a matter of timing, @CassieCard 

 

The MyFICO alerts aren't in real time

You and I both have Experian CreditWorks though. It's the same there. I have no changes in my EX reports going back weeks. Just the positive ones I mentioned.

 

I mean, what else is there that can change that I am missing? Some value on the real credit file that doesn't show on our EX reports?

27 FICO Scores + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

New CRADIS contacts, bearing 1 carom 10. Just think of EQ, TU, and EX as Cylon Basestars.

Message 45 of 59
Established Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?


@SouthJamaica wrote:

All right @CassieCard you insisted on my reporting even when there was a different rounding result on different pages at Experian.com....  I guess it's the programmer in you.

 

Today one account went from 19.6% to below 1%, causing overall utilization to drop from 8.17% to 7.43%, bringing 7 points back into the fold. Only thing, EX rounded 7.43 % down to 7% on the "Credit Reports" page, and up to 8% on "Credit Summary" page.

 

What does it mean? I don't have a clue. But I'm sure you and @iv will figure it out. Although I will no doubt be unable to understand your solution.


I think that's more to do with what @NRB525 said about individual utilization crossing the 10% threshold. Using @iv 's intervals, both those aggregate utilization percentages are below 9 anyway. Using my ceil(x) theory, it's the same anyway - 9 to 8, both still under the 10% threshold.

 

Are you thinking that a change from 8 to 7% aggregate is causing the positive score change?

27 FICO Scores + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

New CRADIS contacts, bearing 1 carom 10. Just think of EQ, TU, and EX as Cylon Basestars.

Message 46 of 59
Valued Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?

@CassieCard: yes the reports show everything from which a change could occur. The MF alerts are event driven as you will understand. Any score change that has occurred is also tacked onto the alert but there’s not necessarily a correlation between the alert and the score change. Consequently if there is a score change it is intuitive the text explains the reason but that’s not necessarily the case. It could be from a factor that does not cause an alert such as aging or an inquiry dropping off or something of that nature that does not trigger an alert itself.
The only thing they could’ve caused your point loss was the balance increase if there were no other changes between your Experian report from the day before. Now was is it caused because of crossing a dollar amount or a utilization percentage amount I do not know.







Installment loan reported this month,so technically, I'm at 2 months, but AoYA points were NOT reset. When new CCs hit and it is reset, I'll put the number it is.+1,+2,+2(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)
Scores updated AUG 4, '19. Since then, 5 HP dings to add; will update again.
Message 47 of 59
Established Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?


@Birdman7 wrote:
@CassieCard: yes the reports show everything from which a change could occur.

Thank you! This is what I really needed to know, because this means that balance change was the only thing that could have caused that drop.

 

The MF alerts are event driven as you will understand. Any score change that has occurred is also tacked onto the alert but there’s not necessarily a correlation between the alert and the score change. Consequently if there is a score change it is intuitive the text explains the reason but that’s not necessarily the case. It could be from a factor that does not cause an alert such as aging or an inquiry dropping off or something of that nature that does not trigger an alert itself.

Way back in this thread, I posted this about granularity of Experian CreditWorks alert changes vs myFICO:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Update-UTI-9-gt-10-9-point-drop-But-what...

 

I have both, and Experian is much faster than myFICO. As you can see from the screen snips in my post, Experian can also help you narrow down what caused a score change, whereas myFICO just gives you the final result, not the intermediary calculations that EX's service will show.

 

The only thing they could’ve caused your point loss was the balance increase if there were no other changes between your Experian report from the day before. Now was is it caused because of crossing a dollar amount or a utilization percentage amount I do not know.

Well, you did mention something about 4 or 5% being a possible threshold. I won't be able to test that until April's report, when I go from a 6/6/6 utilization to 5/5/5. Right now, I think it's highly likely you are right.

 

And check out the graphic below, which is from a FICO whitepaper on machine learning and FICO scores. If we take it as fact, it says that I would lose 15 points going from under 6% to a 7-19% interval. With a .20 weighting that would be -3 pts. Just something to think about.

 

fico-scorecard-utilization-from-ml-white-paper_Sep_2018.png

 

 

27 FICO Scores + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

New CRADIS contacts, bearing 1 carom 10. Just think of EQ, TU, and EX as Cylon Basestars.

Message 48 of 59
Super Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?


@CassieCard wrote:

@SouthJamaica wrote:

It's a matter of timing, @CassieCard 

 

The MyFICO alerts aren't in real time

You and I both have Experian CreditWorks though. It's the same there. I have no changes in my EX reports going back weeks. Just the positive ones I mentioned.

 

I mean, what else is there that can change that I am missing? Some value on the real credit file that doesn't show on our EX reports?


I don't know. For me, any time there has been a score change on EX there has been at least one obvious change in the report.


Total revolving limits 720500 (594000 reporting) 10/2/19 FICO 8 scores: EQ 744 TU 782 EX 746
Message 49 of 59
Super Contributor

Re: 9% UTI --> 10% UTI = 9 point drop. But what is 10%?


@CassieCard wrote:

@SouthJamaica wrote:

All right @CassieCard you insisted on my reporting even when there was a different rounding result on different pages at Experian.com....  I guess it's the programmer in you.

 

Today one account went from 19.6% to below 1%, causing overall utilization to drop from 8.17% to 7.43%, bringing 7 points back into the fold. Only thing, EX rounded 7.43 % down to 7% on the "Credit Reports" page, and up to 8% on "Credit Summary" page.

 

What does it mean? I don't have a clue. But I'm sure you and @iv will figure it out. Although I will no doubt be unable to understand your solution.


I think that's more to do with what @NRB525 said about individual utilization crossing the 10% threshold. Using @iv 's intervals, both those aggregate utilization percentages are below 9 anyway. Using my ceil(x) theory, it's the same anyway - 9 to 8, both still under the 10% threshold.

 

Are you thinking that a change from 8 to 7% aggregate is causing the positive score change?


I do think that, but I'm not certain of it.


Total revolving limits 720500 (594000 reporting) 10/2/19 FICO 8 scores: EQ 744 TU 782 EX 746
Message 50 of 59
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