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Utilization Percentage question?

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Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: Utilization Percentage question?

Inverse, welcome to the board.

 

I suspect your tax liens are affecting your upward potential "glass ceiling". Once these drop off and your profile is clean, you should be in a better position to evaluate positive/negative response to various factors. Until then, responses may be muted if you are near the upper or lower boundry of a scorecard. Also, the data I have seen posted suggests responses to factors differ depending on whether a profile is clean or not clean.

 

I posted a hypothetical framework for a simplified Fico 8 model on another thread, Unfortunately, my proposed framework only relates to clean files. Nonetheless, it might provide some insights for you and constructive feedback is always welcome. I have not seen a structured Fico model presented publicly and thought it could be interesting to build one from the ground up based objective review of poster data sets where confounding of factors can be minimized.

 

A representative risk assessment model with publically open architecture would be a nice tool for planning strategy for people to build (or protect) credit worthiness.

 

Thanks for sharing your data.

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 31 of 46
Revelate
Moderator Emeritus

Re: Utilization Percentage question?


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

Inverse, welcome to the board.

 

I suspect your tax liens are affecting your upward potential "glass ceiling". Once these drop off and your profile is clean, you should be in a better position to evaluate positive/negative response to various factors. Until then, responses may be muted if you are near the upper or lower boundry of a scorecard. Also, the data I have seen posted suggests responses to factors differ depending on whether a profile is clean or not clean.

 

I posted a hypothetical framework for a simplified Fico 8 model on another thread, Unfortunately, my proposed framework only relates to clean files. Nonetheless, it might provide some insights for you and constructive feedback is always welcome. I have not seen a structured Fico model presented publicly and thought it could be interesting to build one from the ground up based objective review of poster data sets where confounding of factors can be minimized.

 

A representative risk assessment model with publically open architecture would be a nice tool for planning strategy for people to build (or protect) credit worthiness.

 

Thanks for sharing your data.


Sigh, are you seriously suggesting that because people have dirty reports that their data is useless?

 

Over and over it has been demonstrated previously and currently that the number of tradelines reporting a balance matters and every single time you discount it with some blahblahblah statement.

 

(Edited)

 




        
Message 32 of 46
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: Utilization Percentage question?

Moderator Emeritus Wrote:

 

Sigh, are you seriously suggesting that because people have dirty reports that their data is useless?

 

I do not recall mentioning "dirty" or "useless" in my statement. Perhaps you can offer up a model on line that posters can use as an educational tool.

 

The poster thinks he is bumping up against a ceiling. Is he? If so, why?

 

Please don't manipulate my words for your benefit.

 

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 33 of 46
NRB525
Super Contributor

Re: Utilization Percentage question?


@Revelate wrote:

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

Inverse, welcome to the board.

 

I suspect your tax liens are affecting your upward potential "glass ceiling". Once these drop off and your profile is clean, you should be in a better position to evaluate positive/negative response to various factors. Until then, responses may be muted if you are near the upper or lower boundry of a scorecard. Also, the data I have seen posted suggests responses to factors differ depending on whether a profile is clean or not clean.

 

I posted a hypothetical framework for a simplified Fico 8 model on another thread, Unfortunately, my proposed framework only relates to clean files. Nonetheless, it might provide some insights for you and constructive feedback is always welcome. I have not seen a structured Fico model presented publicly and thought it could be interesting to build one from the ground up based objective review of poster data sets where confounding of factors can be minimized.

 

A representative risk assessment model with publically open architecture would be a nice tool for planning strategy for people to build (or protect) credit worthiness.

 

Thanks for sharing your data.


Sigh, are you seriously suggesting that because people have dirty reports that their data is useless?

 

Over and over it has been demonstrated previously and currently that the number of tradelines reporting a balance matters and every single time you discount it with some blahblahblah statement.

 

 


A file with three negatives, which seems to top out at 740 (not bad, actually, for negatives being in the file) while the cardholder tries to improve the score, certainly sounds like a ceiling to me. Said another way, it would sound wierd to say someone with negatives on their file could expect to get to 800. Once this poster has the liens off the file, then the weight is lifted (as it will be for your file) and the score should skyrocket. Until then, with the weight on the file, I'd have to agree that the responses to various changes could be reacting strangely.

 

Having said that, I will agree that going from 1/3 to 3/3 cards (100% of cards reporting something) was well tested with equal utilization, which I applaud. There was obviously a significant score change there. I would expect a similar score change for someone close to 850, going from few cards to 100% of cards reporting, because the file is already at the top of the range, and there is a lot to give up for getting away from relative perfection. This poster, as well, is near the top of their current range, so there is a lot to give up by raising risk by showing 100% of cards reporting.

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727
April 2018 $18k on $344k 5% util EQ 806 TU 810 EX 812
Jan 2019 $7.6k on $360k EQ 832 TU 839 EX 831
March 2021 $33k on $312k EQ 796 TU 798 EX 801
May 2021 Paid all Installments and Mortgages, one new Mortgage EQ 761 TY 774 EX 777
April 2022 EQ=811 TU=807 EX=805 - TU VS 3.0 765
Message 34 of 46
jamie123
Valued Contributor

Re: Utilization Percentage question?


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

Inverse, welcome to the board.

 

I suspect your tax liens are affecting your upward potential "glass ceiling". Once these drop off and your profile is clean, you should be in a better position to evaluate positive/negative response to various factors. Until then, responses may be muted if you are near the upper or lower boundry of a scorecard. Also, the data I have seen posted suggests responses to factors differ depending on whether a profile is clean or not clean.

 

I posted a hypothetical framework for a simplified Fico 8 model on another thread, Unfortunately, my proposed framework only relates to clean files. Nonetheless, it might provide some insights for you and constructive feedback is always welcome. I have not seen a structured Fico model presented publicly and thought it could be interesting to build one from the ground up based objective review of poster data sets where confounding of factors can be minimized.

 

A representative risk assessment model with publically open architecture would be a nice tool for planning strategy for people to build (or protect) credit worthiness.

 

Thanks for sharing your data.


Let's look at your argument another way shall we?

 

Your scores are so high and your history is so well aged that your testing is meaningless to the vast majority of credit users. It is a well known fact that once your scores are above 760 the rest is done for bragging rights.

 

FICO 08 scores are generally used by lenders for UNSECURED credit like credit cards and once your scores are above 800 you will probably get the best interest rates on a credit card that any lender offers. It really won't save you any money though because by having scores in the 800s you are probably not carrying balances month to month.

 

FICO 04 and Auto Enhanced models will however save you money when getting a mortgage or auto loan. The difference in a FICO 04 score of 700 versus 760 is worth thousands of dollars on a mortgage and hundreds of dollars on an auto loan. These are really the only two circumstances where the vast majority of consumers will actually save money by having high scores.

 

FACT: MyFICO used to use the EQ FICO 04 model for Scorewatch scores. During that many year period it was tested time and time again that the best course of action to achieve the highest scores possible was: 1 card reporting less than 10% and all the rest $0

 

FICO 08 scores are much more forgiving when it comes to number of cards reporting a balance. If you plan on applying for another credit card it is great to use your 08 scores but don't be surprised when a lender pulls your scores for a mortgage or auto loan and finds that your FICO 04 scores are much lower.

 

"Inverse" has much more useful data for most other MyFICO users. He has reports that have one ding on them and has diligently worked to raise his scores as high as he can get them. By the way Inverse, I have some good news for you! I had an unpaid tax lien fall off my EX report leaving me with a clean EX report and my mortgage scores went from 682 to 786, a difference of 104 points. Something for you to look forward to...

 

It is very easy for someone with a clean file to get high scores. The rest of us with dings have to squeeze every point we can get just to achieve decent scores.

 

Consider yourself lucky. I guarantee that you haven't been divorced, had a medical emergency that laid you up for a few months during the last seven years and went through the last recession virtually unscathed. Sometimes bad things happen to good people that leave them with some dings on their credit. You will find a lot of them here on MyFICO trying their best to repair them.

 

Not all of us are on here chasing the holy grail 850 scores, but perhaps to raise our scores high enough to enable us to buy a house or car for our families.


Starting Score: EQ 653 6/21/12
Current Score: EQ 817 3/10/20 - EX 820 3/13/20 - TU 825 3/03/20
Message 35 of 46
NRB525
Super Contributor

Re: Utilization Percentage question?


@jamie123 wrote:

 

 


 

FICO 08 scores are generally used by lenders for UNSECURED credit like credit cards and once your scores are above 800 you will probably get the best interest rates on a credit card that any lender offers. It really won't save you any money though because by having scores in the 800s you are probably not carrying balances month to month.

  

Consider yourself lucky. I guarantee that you haven't been divorced, had a medical emergency that laid you up for a few months during the last seven years and went through the last recession virtually unscathed. Sometimes bad things happen to good people that leave them with some dings on their credit. You will find a lot of them here on MyFICO trying their best to repair them.

 

 


Well, there is that, however I've got extensive history with carrying balances, and two BofA cards that give me 0% APR offers with a 4% fee, so there are other ways to finnagle a low APR on carried balances Smiley Happy

 

Indeed, "There but for the grace of God..." so to speak. Some of us have been fortunate, many have not, and we each have to make the best of our situation.

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727
April 2018 $18k on $344k 5% util EQ 806 TU 810 EX 812
Jan 2019 $7.6k on $360k EQ 832 TU 839 EX 831
March 2021 $33k on $312k EQ 796 TU 798 EX 801
May 2021 Paid all Installments and Mortgages, one new Mortgage EQ 761 TY 774 EX 777
April 2022 EQ=811 TU=807 EX=805 - TU VS 3.0 765
Message 36 of 46
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Utilization Percentage question?

I'm mostly here to read and gleen what I can as forums often lack empirical evidence.

 

If one wanted to create a hypothetical framework for clean or dirty files, they could start with the estimator (seems to work best on IE)

http://www.myfico.com/FICOCreditScoreEstimator/Estimator.aspx

 

Again, I am trained mathematician but I wasn't  rigorous so humor me on the following analysis regarding utilization

Known

  1. there are ten questions total in the estimator
  2. there is a question that asks how many credit cards do you have
  3. there is actually a question that asks how many of your loans and/or credit cards have a balance
  4. there is a question about total of balances other than mortgages
  5. there is a question about percentage of total credit card limit that your balance represent

Observations

  1. I cannot know any other factors except those present in the questions
  2. the best answer seems to be 5 or more credit cards from my testing
  3. 0-4 seems to be the best answer for carying a balance, take this in context of the above question
  4. anyone with a car loan on a late model car won't like this one; however it seems to have little effect on the top of the range
  5. 0-9% is the best answer here as we already knew

775 seems to be about the best score I could create for anyone with a dirty report using an iterative/exhaustive method (that wasn't rigorous)

 

I'll avoid too much discussion of my personal score as it could cover an entire thread of its own.

 

 

Message 37 of 46
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Utilization Percentage question?


@Anonymous wrote:

I'm mostly here to read and gleen what I can as forums often lack empirical evidence.

 

If one wanted to create a hypothetical framework for clean or dirty files, they could start with the estimator (seems to work best on IE)

http://www.myfico.com/FICOCreditScoreEstimator/Estimator.aspx

 

Again, I am trained mathematician but I wasn't  rigorous so humor me on the following analysis regarding utilization

Known

  1. there are ten questions total in the estimator
  2. there is a question that asks how many credit cards do you have
  3. there is actually a question that asks how many of your loans and/or credit cards have a balance
  4. there is a question about total of balances other than mortgages
  5. there is a question about percentage of total credit card limit that your balance represent

Observations

  1. I cannot know any other factors except those present in the questions
  2. the best answer seems to be 5 or more credit cards from my testing
  3. 0-4 seems to be the best answer for carying a balance, take this in context of the above question
  4. anyone with a car loan on a late model car won't like this one; however it seems to have little effect on the top of the range
  5. 0-9% is the best answer here as we already knew

775 seems to be about the best score I could create for anyone with a dirty report using an iterative/exhaustive method (that wasn't rigorous)

 

I'll avoid too much discussion of my personal score as it could cover an entire thread of its own.

 

 


I would also note that using factual aswers from my current credit profile, the range given was quite accurate - 585-625

Message 38 of 46
cem13
Established Contributor

Re: Utilization Percentage question?


@Anonymous wrote:

 

http://www.myfico.com/FICOCreditScoreEstimator/Estimator.aspx

 

This estimator (645-695) is low with my data.  I have 10 new accounts recently with only single point drop in scores.  All scores are 700 to 710 for 2 years now.  I have definately hit the upper limit of my bucket.  

 

FICO 08 JUL23: TU 850; EQ 846; EX 843. Clean since BK7 D/C 6/2011.
Message 39 of 46
NRB525
Super Contributor

Re: Utilization Percentage question?

I ran multiple iterations with this score generator last year, documenting the variations carefully. It topped out at 830:

5+ cards, 20+ years both loans and cards, no apps in the last two years, thus no new cards, 0-4 cards reporting, less than $500 total amount outstanding, no lates of course, util 0% - 9%.

 

But my main purpose was to see the effect of changes in utilization, not getting new cards, number of cards less than 9 reporting (0 to 4 cards is just impossible for my ego) and from that perspective, I found it useful. I too have exceeded the top of my range for my current profile, so for absolute measure, I think the estimator is just a notch above useless. For getting an idea of directional impact for changes to the major measures in your file, however, I found that effort worthwhile. I think Smiley Happy  Time will tell.

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727
April 2018 $18k on $344k 5% util EQ 806 TU 810 EX 812
Jan 2019 $7.6k on $360k EQ 832 TU 839 EX 831
March 2021 $33k on $312k EQ 796 TU 798 EX 801
May 2021 Paid all Installments and Mortgages, one new Mortgage EQ 761 TY 774 EX 777
April 2022 EQ=811 TU=807 EX=805 - TU VS 3.0 765
Message 40 of 46
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