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Why the difference in simulator score prediction?

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Anonymous
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Why the difference in simulator score prediction?

Hello everyone. Smiley Happy

 

It is my plan to pay down my UTIL to <1% in 3 months.  I only have one active CC, two open CCs, on my CR.  Overall account history is 21yrs with an AAofA of 13yrs with 11 accounts in total (9 which are closed).

 

I know the simulator is for educational purposes only and is no guarantee to your final Fico scores, ...  However, I would like to understand why the simulator may be showing the following score increases:

 

If I pay down the card to $0 in 3 months: 55pt increase

If I pay down the card to $0 in 4 months: 60pt increase

The additional 5 points here are likely due to the 1 yr anniv of the CC. This I get. BUT...

 

If I pay down the card to $3 in 3 months: 40pt increase

If I pay down the card to $4 in 4 months: 45pt increase

Again, the additional 5 points here are likely due to the 1 yr anniv of the CC.

 

When I age the report by 3 or 4 months, the simulator basically shows a difference of 5 points increase.  At 3 months, my score may increase by 10 points.  At 4 months, it may increase by 15 points.  

 

Taking the 5pt anniv. points into account ,why the 10 point difference when I pay the CC down to 0% versus leaving a very small balance on the card of $3 or $4?  Up until now, my understanding was that it is better to leave a small balance than to take the card completely down to 0, but I guess not. 

 

Thank you inadvance. Smiley Happy

7 REPLIES 7
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Why the difference in simulator score prediction?

Simulators are complete garbage; you can't go off of anything they say.  The only take a handful of pieces of information into consideration when spitting out their "predictions" when there are an infinite amount of moving parts relative to each other contained on ones credit profile.  I've seen similators say someone will gain 5 points and they gain 50.  I've seen simulators say someone will lose 100 points and they lose 8.  I personally recommend everyone to stay away from them as they can often point you in the wrong direction.

Message 2 of 8
Anonymous
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Re: Why the difference in simulator score prediction?


@Anonymous wrote:

Simulators are complete garbage; you can't go off of anything they say.  The only take a handful of pieces of information into consideration when spitting out their "predictions" when there are an infinite amount of moving parts relative to each other contained on ones credit profile.  I've seen similators say someone will gain 5 points and they gain 50.  I've seen simulators say someone will lose 100 points and they lose 8.  I personally recommend everyone to stay away from them as they can often point you in the wrong direction.


Oh no.  I've been relying on it heavily. Smiley Sad Thank goodness I have myFico community or I would be up the creek.  Thanks! Smiley Happy

Message 3 of 8
Anonymous
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Re: Why the difference in simulator score prediction?

Any time.  If you start a thread asking forum members to predict a potential score change for you if you were to do X with your account and then provide as much data as you can on your profile you will get responses (predictions) from forum members that IMO will be far more accurate than any simulator could ever be.

Message 4 of 8
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Why the difference in simulator score prediction?


@Anonymous wrote:

Any time.  If you start a thread asking forum members to predict a potential score change for you if you were to do X with your account and then provide as much data as you can on your profile you will get responses (predictions) from forum members that IMO will be far more accurate than any simulator could ever be.


I can see why that would be the case since it would be based on *real* world data and experience.  I will keep that in mind.  Thank you! Smiley Happy

Message 5 of 8
Anonymous
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Is it better to pay a credit card off slowly? Simulator says yes.

Ok, I asked this question before, but in a different way:  Why-the-difference-in-simulator-score-prediction

 

I have a CU CC that is currently reporting at 69% util (1716 balance / 2500 CL).  

In case it matters, I also have a store CC (0 balance/ 750 CL).  I don't use this card, but I am waiting on a re-issue so I can start using it (util is 0%).

 

If I put in the simulator to pay off the CU CC in one lump sum, it predicts a 45 point increase.  If I put in the simulator to pay off the card in 3 equal payments, it predicts a 55 point increase.  I know the simulator is for educational purposes, but I'm wondering why the 10 point difference.

 

Is there a benefit to paying off a CC balance over a period of time (say 3-6 months) versus over 1-2 months in the Fico 8 scoring model?

Does the fico scoring model see a balance that is reduce over time *less risky* than one that is up and down like a yoyo?

 

Thank inadvance. Smiley Happy

 

Message 6 of 8
Anonymous
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Re: Is it better to pay a credit card off slowly? Simulator says yes.

I think the benefit comes more from the extra 3 months or so of account age, payments, and also lowering util. Could be wrong but I think that's what's factoring into the simulator.
Message 7 of 8
Anonymous
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Re: Is it better to pay a credit card off slowly? Simulator says yes.


@Anonymous wrote:
I think the benefit comes more from the extra 3 months or so of account age, payments, and also lowering util. Could be wrong but I think that's what's factoring into the simulator.

You're probably right because if I just age the account out by 4 months (no extra payments, etc.), the simulator show a 5 point increase.  I just wish I knew exactly it was doing...but I suppose everyone wants to know that!. LOL. 

 

Thank you for replying.  I appreciate it. Smiley Happy

Message 8 of 8
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