Wild idea to stick it to the man. Who's in for a reverse engineered FICO calculator?

[BallBounces]

I think this is a great idea.  Let me know when we are done.

[ChuckG]

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@RobertEG wrote:

As I have previously posted, I have attempted to develop a FICO model that I have on an Excel spreadsheet that attempts to model each of the FICO categories, which I would be glad to share with anyone, provided there is some way I can get it to you.

Message Edited by RobertEG on 02-22-2008 05:47 AM

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Hey Robert, I would love to take a look at what you have in your Excel sheet so far. Just PM me back and I'll give you my email address.

Also, If you want to give me a list of known relevant variables, I can put together a database with an HTML interface that we can ask users to start filling in.

[RobertEG]

Please, my fellow FICO-holics, do not short-sell the benefits of developing our own FICO score simulation just because of the obvious fact that it cannot be replicated down to the decimal point of the actual FICO model and score. 

If you have used the online score simulators provided by the major credit bureaus, including myFico, I think you will agree that they are woeful.  "What-ifs" 24 months from now.  No help at all.   The real modeling benefit, if a comprehensive simulation is done, is not to replicate a FICO score, for all buckets, and all the other unknown  variables that only the propriretary FICO model can know for sure, but rather to show the general impact of any single action upon each of the five major FICO categories NOW.  That cannot be done without some kinda modeling.  I know that most people hate math, but FICO is math!  It is a number, generated from math equations, not anecdotes.  How many know the total points for each category, and the general impact of points lost for each category for past sins?  And the concurrent impact on other FICO categores?  People post and dwell, for exsample,  upon hard inquiries, but they are minor in the algorithm and drop at 12 months.  Not an area of prime focus.  People want to get a feel for numbers, and not anecdotes.. 

People ask again and again on here about how an action taken in only one FICO category will affect their score in the future.  That is impossible to do without a comrehensive model of all categories of credit model.   Any model, no matter its faults, thaqt considers the impact of an action on all cetegores of scoring, is kinda more meaningful than saying "my Aint Bessie paid off her Junipter Red  Elite Platinum Visa down from 70% to 8% last month," and then asking what her score will be in 3 months.  FICO does not rely upon Ouija boards, so neither should we.  Math is FICO.

I have developed a statistical mathematical algorithm, covering all FICO categories, that works for me.  I invite others to help in refining it.  ChuckG has offered to set up a user database for user input that will give us a broader database of actual experience that will help in refinement of the model.  In the meantime, if anyone would like a copy of my current Excel model, just private message me, and a copy will be sent to you. 

Message Edited by RobertEG on 02-22-2008 10:24 PM

Message Edited by RobertEG on 02-22-2008 10:26 PM

Message Edited by RobertEG on 02-22-2008 10:34 PM

Message Edited by RobertEG on 02-22-2008 10:37 PM

Message Edited by RobertEG on 02-22-2008 10:43 PM

[RobertEG]

Hey Cheddar and Hauling, you are neat and knowledgeable responders!  Pragmatists!  Not naysayers, just doubters in the ability for us to reverse-engineer the FICO model to the extent that we can put some general numbers, per category, and in total FICO score, on what has heretofor been conjecture.  I know we can do it!   Give me the data, and I will give you the math!

We have such diverse talent and experience on here.

We can put numbers on the previously ephemeral!

It will answer, once compiled, a lot or the questions that flow day-to-day through this forum.

People want to see immediate impact. 

I am an immediate imapct kindfa guy, if you handt noticed!

Message Edited by RobertEG on 02-22-2008 11:06 PM

[RobertEG]

Vista, the goal is not to be done.  It is to begin.

[haulingthescoreup]

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@RobertEG wrote:

Hey Cheddar and Hauling, you are neat and knowledgeable responders! Pragmatists! Not naysayers, just doubters in the ability for us to reverse-engineer the FICO model to the extent that we can put some general numbers, per category, and in total FICO score, on what has heretofore been conjecture....

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I'm not even so much a doubter in the ability to do this. Given enough time, data, caffeine, and days missed from work, anything can be cracked.

My concern is for when one set of numbers gets crunched and seems to work pretty well for one person, and they're posted. Those of us who've been analyzing our own score changes for several months know that there's a lot we don't know, but new members here are apt to take those predicted score values as applicable across the board, as plainly they are not. My own numbers are very, very different from what I would have expected from your formula.

I just hate seeing the new people here get even more confused (and upset!) than they already are. So I hope that you guys go for it, but preliminary is preliminary. Good research always regards early results with LOTS of skepticism!

And BTW, there is a thread on Credit in the News quoting Craig Watts of FICO as saying that FICO 08 will start up in May. But I'll bet a nickel that it's going to take a long, long time to be widely adopted. So we'll all have 6 FICO scores to keep track of, 7 when you included both the old and less-old versions of TU out there, and lets not think about the auto-enhanced and credit-card enhanced versions.

[acadia11]

Some functions do not have inverses, meaning you can only go in one direction, you can't go backwards. The math is pretty simple to prove this one, but I don't want to bore you with the details. But you could keep taking the info in your credit report, and try and see if you can come up with the function that can give you your fico score. What you would need is a bunch of individuals credit info to see if your model accurately mimics fico.

Message Edited by acadia11 on 03-14-2008 09:31 AM

[Anonymous]

I'm up for it..if someone is smart enough to take all this on we should all be supporting them!

... I know just looking at my own fico report and my DH and trying to figure out what is going on makes me crazy.. !!

I think the fico machine has many flaws (change in status dates being one of them that effects scores)..if you can figure it out great as half the time I don't even think the fico folks know how it work's and can't explain it.

  good luck..I'm rooting for you

[Anonymous]

Check out the Web sites in my .sig...they contain much information about FICO scoring, including a CR breakdown and listing of the variables affecting your FICO score (utilization, average age of accounts, % of accounts delinquent, etc.).

[Anonymous]

Ok, Chuck G you are on to something. For all the other naysayer. Reverse engineering precisely to a point or so can be done with Fico. The question has anyone done it and does anyone care to? I’m not sure where the value is to do such a thing. The general guidelines allow you to boost your score. But perhaps I missed the point, if you could figure out your score and plan to strategize knowing how to use your personal analysis. Then what would this be worth to people? On a personal note, this is what I do for a living. For 14 years, I reverse engineer software solutions of competitors to understand how one has achieved a mathematical formula. The next factor is peer reviewing if the calculation is correct. Which is what everyone on this forum can help me do? So here is what I would and I am considering it if I get support from the forums and the data required validating the calculation. Perhaps this website moderator wishes to have this solution for their website. I personally have my fico score reports from Equifax for each month for 10 years now. All I would do is create an online database website that allows everyone to log all reports based on the variables found at http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/WhatsInYourScore.aspx There is a comprehensive guideline of how each score is affected. Now if I enter all my Equifax reports using the guidelines and calculator I create. I can make the software reverse engineer the mathematical formula used to get to the Fico score Equifax issued me. I suspect what Fico has done has created 5 different relationship databases. The common thing I believe they have done is created an adjustable minimum and maximum value of what a personal score can be. Virtually creating unique scores for each person. This is why each person is getting different scores with similar data. So if you have been reported for over 10 years, the Fico software would calculate a trend over the period of time. Since this is a private scoring system, they don't have to get rid of your info after 7 years. Sure they can publish it, but you don't know what they have collected on you over your lifetime electronically. From this baseline, I believe they attack it with 5 different relationship variables in the database to figure out your credit score quickly so you can buy that Plasma. So basically each personal has a baseline that all FICO variables are applied to dynamically based on one common thread. The Calendar Date. For example, this is how I believe they can make it flexible for each person, since each person is different. Now I should mentioned, I specifically reverse engineer much more difficult calculations to keep it short in the medical industries, all day long for years now. So for the FICO score to output a variable score is simply a matter of reverse engineering the values that led to the personal score. Every person is different and Fico has a flexible calculation that takes into account many variables. (this is way beyond excel guys) So what I would do with this online software. Is allowing all of you to input what ever data you have anonymously. The software would calculate how that individual credit score was calculated. For example if Length of Credit History is worth 15% of a score that can only max out at 850 points when combined with all the other variables. Then the variables are Time since accounts opened, time since accounts opened by specific type of accounts and time since account on activity. I believe entering the above data for that one database module; the software can calculate minimum and maximum values for each variable within a category like “Length of Credit”. Now if I get 1000 entries into the system, I can correlate the common values of responses for all the entries allowing me to identify how FICO calculates their minimum and maximum values for each person’s baseline. This could be dynamically displayed online for everyone to see. If I had to guess, the chances are the values are the nearest in range of scores over a period of time. So they will take the minimum and maximum values you scored in each area and analyze your past history to find the closest response in ranges. This would create peaks in graphs and would allow them to see missed payments, repos and so on. So for example, making payment on time and paying off at a certain ratio would create a minimum and maximum value in ranges to be measured. This creates a baseline that can be measured. From this I believe Fico calculates 5 Categories X 26 Variables which can have many types of options against that baseline. I think this is what confuses most of you. Here is the basic example of what I am trying to say. Take Length of Credit History. It has 3 Variables. So I need to know what “the type of accounts” this area would record. So if there are 3 types of accounts. I have a possibility of 9 variables within 1 question. This is how I believe FICO has compiled their data. On top of it, if this calculation was done in 1950, please we have advanced so much since then. Hackers hack the pentagon and you think FICO cannot be figured out. As I started out this post, does anyone care to?