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how accuate is fico simulator?

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Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

The sims 24 month action.

I'm not sure the second number shown in the 24 month action represents anything? I have played with other peoples CRs on the sims and found that the change was the same for everyone that I tested for 24 month best action. It takes the best score from the left then adds an even amount of point for a possible gain on the right. How can everyone have the same amount of points to gain over 24 months? Something didn't add up. Maybe it is different for others but on the ones I tested it was always like this.

In my opinion possible explanations for additional point gains over 24 months:
Inqs that will fall off
PIF'd on an account
Lowered number of balances, ect.

I haven't seen the sim take in to count any of these actions. If they happen then you would fall between the left and right numbers or past the right even. But even if you don't have any of these factors the sim (with CR that I tested), in my case and others still showed the same point spread.

Just to add lastly I compared sim results (I save the web pages to my hard drive to archive) and when my score was lower for other factors that were just a short term punishment my sim said highest score over 2 years was just 800. Once that short term punishment was gone the sim said 840. Another time the right number said 850, and then shortly again 845.

How can that be... It can't. When I calculate the spread it was always the same to the left number for all of them. The sim doesn't take in to count anything other than UTL. I don't think it even takes in to count age really, however it does increase the score for 24 months, so age and inqs seem like they are considered but not truly calculated in my opinion. I just can't find proof. The range is just a prediction of what might be expected in a very good situation. Maybe over the next 2 years you could add or drop accounts. I think the right number is just a guess based on the over all general actions of all people in your group. But the left number I have found to be VERY accurate!!!! Not just very but exact on every test I ran so far *as of 5 months ago*. I have not tested the UTL accuracy in a while since I haven't had balances high enough to use it. And with other people didn't have balances low enough to confirm it.

If they changed the sim and finally made the right side accurate I'd love to know. I can say with confidence as of 5 months ago the right number was not related to the CR based on the ones I tested.

Smiley Happy
Message 11 of 27
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

Does anyone show anything other than an even number for the right side number? It's always like 20, 30 or 40 points right?
Message 12 of 27
haulingthescoreup
Moderator Emerita

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

Are you talking about the score range?

It's always a multiple of ten on my reports. I just go with the mean; so 750 - 790, I figure around 770. It's usually divisible by 20, which makes it simple to eyeball the mean.

I think the range is there, and is so broad, because it's projecting over two years. Things fall off, get added, etc., so they give themselves more wiggle room. I never see as broad of a range on shorter intervals.
* Credit is a wonderful servant, but a terrible master. * Who's the boss --you or your credit?
FICO's: EQ 781 - TU 793 - EX 779 (from PSECU) - Done credit hunting; having fun with credit gardening. - EQ 590 on 5/14/2007
Message 13 of 27
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

Yep. I think the left side is true and the right side only offers one possible outcome but not based on your credit report like the left but based on that everyone usually has some inqs, ect. I'm not sure why they put the right number in there? It doesn't seem to be linked to the CR. The sim only factors in UTL so even in 24 months UTL will still affect the score the same. I thought maybe it was for inqs, but I had o inqs and it still gave me the same range, then tested it with other people and the same thing, no connection. Hoping someone could identify something else about the right number. I don't believe it is linked to age, average age, or inqs. I thought the right number was just there in case someone had any of these factors affecting their score. But wondering if anyone found a connection to their CR and the right number?
Message 14 of 27
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

Not everyone gains points for age, avg age, but the sim still says they can gain the same range, so I formed my opinion that it was not really related but if you think about it most people do have more room to gain from these factors so makes sense to give a range for most people so that's cool but it seems to just give the range to everyone that I have tested even those that I identified don't have future points to gain. Trying to see if anyone identified any connection with the right side relating to anything specific on their CR?

The best I could come up with to explain why the right side is there is to say something *might* be affecting your score and *could* do this amount. That's the part that confuses me. Just trying to see if there is anything I missed about the sim. I can't factor how or why it comes up with a 20-40 point gain for 24 months. That's my best guess. If anyone else has better ides, please post. I'm interested to learn. Smiley Happy

Message Edited by ilovepizza on 08-19-2008 09:44 PM
Message 15 of 27
smallfry
Senior Contributor

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

Now you have me a little confused pizza. Wouldn't the sim drop any negatives due to drop in the specified time period? It would have to assume you add no inquiries no new accounts and everything that is supposed to be there in terms of closed positive tradelines would be still listed on the reports. Beyond that it would seem they should be fairly accurate if you can get the utilization in the sweet spot.
Message 16 of 27
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

It would seem that way. But I ran many sims with other peoples profiles and the right side was always the same. How could the range be the same for everyone with different types of CRs? I could only conclude that the right number doesn't mean anything specific other than chance. I'm trying very hard to identify why they added the range-(right number) for debt UTL and the 24 month best action option in to the sim?

Maybe I am taking this too serious and being to technical about it. Maybe the range is for unexpected other changes? Still leaves me scratching my head why they added these 2 options in to the sim?

I am going to run a sim on 3 different credit reports. BRB.

Message Edited by ilovepizza on 08-19-2008 11:22 PM
Message 17 of 27
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

IMO- the SIm has been very accurate in UTL, time calculations
and It does a good job in time since last baddie- but does not take ANY other factors into account-
 
Maxed accounts-
INQ's
baddies dropping, accounts dropping
re-bucketing
Message 18 of 27
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

The left number of the sim has always been accurate for UTL changes. Smiley Happy I'm just trying to figure out why they show a spread of 20 points for example. What is factored in to this spread? Once we hit peak UTL that's it. How could it show that there could be more points to gain after max UTL is reached? That answer would also answer the 24 month best action too. If I am correct I believe everyone has a spread when they run the sim? Not everyone has room to gain. I can't identify what the sim is reading on the CR to say there is a spread for CR? The right number doesn't represent UTL so what can it represent? Best action 24 months will gain points too. But exactly an even number 10-20 points? I could not factor age points to be exact like that. Sorry, I'm lost on this one. I give up. lol

Message Edited by ilovepizza on 08-19-2008 11:37 PM
Message 19 of 27
smallfry
Senior Contributor

Re: how accuate is fico simulator?

When I ran the sim on my TU at 731 the range for best action was 731-751. When EQ was 706 curiously the range there was 736-776. Now with EQ at 696 my best action is a range of 726-766. EQ is a tease I think. Smiley Happy

Message Edited by smallfry on 08-19-2008 11:51 PM
Message 20 of 27
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