myFico Simulator WTH!?

[xaustie]

Logged in to my myFico account today. Noticed that there was a simulator result on the home page. Took a look and saw this:

This was the simulation that it was doing: "Pay down $xxx of your total revolving/open account balances of $yyy every month for 24 months."

As of right now my reports are almost identical across all three CRs. Thick file, one derog to drop off 2017, 16% util total, 10yr AAoA, about three years left on a $20k car loan, five CCs, four 0% util, fifth one at less than 30% util, FICO8 about 700.

I have no earthly idea why EQ is so far off from the others in the simulation? I don't really put much stock in the simulators but just really curious about the difference.

Anyone have any idea? What am I missing?

[Anonymous]

Look through the last 3B report you pulled and look for any differences for that bureau and report back.  The simulator has been spot on for me.

[Revelate]

I'm guessing there is a different date on said derogatory.

The simulator does factor in derogs / lates falling off, there's probably something in the reporting details which is different on EQ than the other two.

[xaustie]

I have been rebuilding and watching things very closely for years. I really am hard pressed to see a significant difference in my reports that would make EQ so bad (virtually unchanged) in 2 years of paying down the credit.

The simulation was based on my last 3B report (10/10/2016).
Here are the stats from the same 3B report:

Here is the explanation for the Negative Indicators:

1. All three CRs show a 30 day late on a mortgage payment from 7/2011.

2. All three CRs show a student loan that went to collection with a DoFD date for all three of 7/2010.

3. EQ has a "duplicate" report for the same student loan event. Here are snippets from my most recent EQ freecredit full report:

Finally - the great irony of this is that my EQ score is consistently my highest!

[xaustie]

I have no idea how close the simulator is to reality. I presume it is pretty weak and only shows gross cause-and-effect kinds of stuff. It almost looks though like the simulator is actually "smart" enough to re-bucket me for EX and TU as the collection drops off next year (the simulation is for 24 months) but for some reason does not re-bucket me in EQ for the same event. Note that my EQ score only goes up 10 points over the next two years.

[xaustie]

Based upon my current reports from all three CBs my reports will be squeaky clean 7/2018. The simulation covers 24 months from now - 12/2018.

[Anonymous]

Simulators are garbage as they only factor in a fraction of the data needed to make a real prediction.  Don't put any stock into simulators.  If you want to get an idea of what will happen if you achieve X or do Y, simply start a thread and list all of your profile data out and some of the veteran members here will chime in with predictions that IMO will be far more worthwhile than what a simulator can tell you.  If a simulator gets it "right" it's by chance, not because it's a "good" simulator.

I've had simulators tell me before that paying down utilization a certain amount would raise my score 30 points and my score would raise 5 points.

I've had simulators tell me before that opening up 3 new accounts and adding 3 new inquiries would drop my scores 20 points and they dropped 2-3 points.

All of these things are profile-specific, and simulators IMO simply don't look at enough profile data (with respect to each other) to yield consistently worthwhile information.

[bettercreditguy1]

The simulator here on MY Fico has always been equivalent or higher on predicting scores for me as well. A computer can not respond with every correct reason so it picks a "close reason or reasons for a response.