FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

[Revelate]

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@Anonymous wrote:

Rev, you rebucketed at 2 years 60 day late on TU4?? Interesting. Change to higher dirty bucket?

So I guess the increase at two years is only on version 8+?

Any change in reason codes?

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TU FICO 4 no longer complains about a late at all in the top 4 reason codes, FICO 8 / 9 still do; actually I have pretty scorecard reason codes on TU FICO 4 now.  TBH I don't think I've heard of a stranger and yet totally obvious rebucketing, and it seems to explain that old theory that lates didn't count after some period of time which isn't the case on FICO 8 anyway but might well be on FICO 04 which admittedly was the dominant score available at the time.  It's still markedly lower than either EQ FICO 5 though, beyond the +/- 30 point design goal and there's no CFA on TU so I suspect it's not the near TT-like scorecard I appear to be on for Equifax / Experian too when it comes to mortgage scoring.

Thought I posted about it in UFS let me see if I can find it:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Terrible-but-fascinating-to-me-datapoint-60D-late-at-2-years/m-p/6005890#M168955

[Anonymous]

Yeah I haven’t had a lot of time to browse the site lately. I’ve pretty much just been responding notifications most of the time, so I missed it, but looking forward to reading it! Thank you for the link. I wonder if its serious delinquencies or just minors? Probably just minor.

[Revelate]

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@Anonymous wrote:
Yeah I haven’t had a lot of time to browse the site lately. I’ve pretty much just been responding notifications most of the time, so I missed it, but looking forward to reading it! Thank you for the link. I wonder if its serious delinquencies or just minors? Probably just minor.

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I don't know; previously 60D late was counted as a serious delinquency and that was confirmed not only by reason code but also by scorecard assignment by what reason codes flatly weren't there.

I never would have conjectured that say a 60D late could shift categories of seriousness but I can't explain it any other way.  If 60D goes at 2 years what happens at 5 years for 90D for example?  I still remember the one individual with a 90D hit a 798 on TU FICO 8... and for that matter what if this doesn't happen on EQ which has traditionally always punished my negatives more harshly than TU?

This really just blows up some of my previously held opinions.

[Anonymous]

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@Revelate wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:
Yeah I haven’t had a lot of time to browse the site lately. I’ve pretty much just been responding notifications most of the time, so I missed it, but looking forward to reading it! Thank you for the link. I wonder if its serious delinquencies or just minors? Probably just minor.

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I don't know; previously 60D late was counted as a serious delinquency and that was confirmed not only by reason code but also by scorecard assignment by what reason codes flatly weren't there.

I never would have conjectured that say a 60D late could shift categories of seriousness but I can't explain it any other way.  If 60D goes at 2 years what happens at 5 years for 90D for example?  I still remember the one individual with a 90D hit a 798 on TU FICO 8... and for that matter what if this doesn't happen on EQ which has traditionally always punished my negatives more harshly than TU?

This really just blows up some of my previously held opinions.

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"Inquiring Minds Wonder" if your memory was correct and an adjustment was made to the scoring system? Food for thought. Reminds me to go grocery shopping "oh joy"

[Anonymous]

I had a 53 Moderate rating on my April 10 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 4mo, AAoA 1yr 4mo, AoYA/AoYRA 2mo, AoORA 1yr 4mo, AAoRA 11mo

1 closed loan, 3 open revolving, $587 / 4% aggregate (5,2,9 individual %), 1 recent card (2mo), 0 inq on EQ

Today I have a 55 Moderate rating on my May 14 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 5mo, AAoA 1yr 2mo, AoYA/AoYRA 3mo, AoORA 1yr 5mo, AAoRA 10mo

1 closed loan, 4 open revolving, $1149 / 4% aggregate, (4,4,4,4 individual %), 2 recent cards (3mo), 0 inq on EQ

[EDIT TO SCORES: This score uses EQ 8, 5, and 9 - I put Bankcard 8 where EQ 9 should be.]

Same red flags (2). Not much difference in EQ scores: 8:734 (+5) , 5:727 (-2), 9: 739 (-2)

[sjt]

My score went from 52 to 47 to 51, the difference being the number of accounts with balances (2-1-2). The amounts did play a factor in my case.

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

I had a 53 Moderate rating on my April 10 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 4mo, AAoA 1yr 4mo, AoYA/AoYRA 2mo, AoORA 1yr 4mo, AAoRA 11mo

1 closed loan, 3 open revolving, $587 / 4% aggregate (5,2,9 individual %), 1 recent card (2mo), 0 inq on EQ

Today I have a 55 Moderate rating on my May 14 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 5mo, AAoA 1yr 2mo, AoYA/AoYRA 3mo, AoORA 1yr 5mo, AAoRA 10mo

1 closed loan, 4 open revolving, $1149 / 4% aggregate, (4,4,4,4 individual %), 2 recent cards (3mo), 0 inq on EQ

Same red flags (2). Not much difference in EQ scores: 8:734 (+5) , 5:727 (-2), BC8:730 (+2)

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I am really starting to think and feel like it has to do with monthly obligations and disregards baddies, closed accounts, COs, etc. I can almost believe if you had $0 in monthly obligations, no more than 75% of your accounts as CCs, have at least 1 instllment loan and are not an AU, your Resilience score could possibly be 1 lol

So your aggregate went up, so your monthly obligations likely went up a little bit. Meaning you resilience went down.

It might be a little more complex than that, but a starting point.

Like my installment loan balance will now be under 30%, and my CC aggregate will go from 4% to 3% (individual) and I am going to guess either my resilience score will stay the same or maybe go down a point. It will completely disregard 2 CAs that are now going to be off my CR.

I pull in 3 days!

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:

I had a 53 Moderate rating on my April 10 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 4mo, AAoA 1yr 4mo, AoYA/AoYRA 2mo, AoORA 1yr 4mo, AAoRA 11mo

1 closed loan, 3 open revolving, $587 / 4% aggregate (5,2,9 individual %), 1 recent card (2mo), 0 inq on EQ

Today I have a 55 Moderate rating on my May 14 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 5mo, AAoA 1yr 2mo, AoYA/AoYRA 3mo, AoORA 1yr 5mo, AAoRA 10mo

1 closed loan, 4 open revolving, $1149 / 4% aggregate, (4,4,4,4 individual %), 2 recent cards (3mo), 0 inq on EQ

Same red flags (2). Not much difference in EQ scores: 8:734 (+5) , 5:727 (-2), BC8:730 (+2)

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I am really starting to think and feel like it has to do with monthly obligations and disregards baddies, closed accounts, COs, etc. I can almost believe if you had $0 in monthly obligations, no more than 75% of your accounts as CCs, have at least 1 instllment loan and are not an AU, your Resilience score could possibly be 1 lol

haha

So your aggregate went up, so your monthly obligations likely went up a little bit. Meaning you resilience went down.

The interesting thing here is that my aggregate balance went from $587 to $1149, with no change in aggregate percentage - 4% on both reports because the AMEX card added $11,500 to total credit limit.

And on 2 of 3 scores that EQ uses for this (EQ 5 and 9), I lost -2pts - same as I lost on the Resilience Index score.

So you're right about the total monthly amount.

Like my installment loan balance will now be under 30%, and my CC aggregate will go from 4% to 3% (individual) and I am going to guess either my resilience score will stay the same or maybe go down a point. It will completely disregard 2 CAs that are now going to be off my CR.

I pull in 3 days!

So all positive things. This should be good!

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:

I had a 53 Moderate rating on my April 10 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 4mo, AAoA 1yr 4mo, AoYA/AoYRA 2mo, AoORA 1yr 4mo, AAoRA 11mo

1 closed loan, 3 open revolving, $587 / 4% aggregate (5,2,9 individual %), 1 recent card (2mo), 0 inq on EQ

Today I have a 55 Moderate rating on my May 14 3B report:

AoOA 2yr 5mo, AAoA 1yr 2mo, AoYA/AoYRA 3mo, AoORA 1yr 5mo, AAoRA 10mo

1 closed loan, 4 open revolving, $1149 / 4% aggregate, (4,4,4,4 individual %), 2 recent cards (3mo), 0 inq on EQ

Same red flags (2). Not much difference in EQ scores: 8:734 (+5) , 5:727 (-2), BC8:730 (+2)

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I am really starting to think and feel like it has to do with monthly obligations and disregards baddies, closed accounts, COs, etc. I can almost believe if you had $0 in monthly obligations, no more than 75% of your accounts as CCs, have at least 1 instllment loan and are not an AU, your Resilience score could possibly be 1 lol

haha

So your aggregate went up, so your monthly obligations likely went up a little bit. Meaning you resilience went down.

The interesting thing here is that my aggregate balance went from $587 to $1149, with no change in aggregate percentage - 4% on both reports because the AMEX card added $11,500 to total credit limit.

And on 2 of 3 scores that EQ uses for this (EQ 5 and 9), I lost -2pts - same as I lost on the Resilience Index score.

So you're right about the total monthly amount.

Like my installment loan balance will now be under 30%, and my CC aggregate will go from 4% to 3% (individual) and I am going to guess either my resilience score will stay the same or maybe go down a point. It will completely disregard 2 CAs that are now going to be off my CR.

I pull in 3 days!

So all positive things. This should be good!

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Sorry, yes, your aggregate % stayed the same. Read too fast and only saw $ increase. You are on top of it keeping that consisent! Best way to study these things!

[Anonymous]

@RemediosCan you move messages 195 through 199 in this thread, to the end of this thread: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes ?

I posted my Alice in Equiland Resilience Index score here because I was posting under the influence by mistake.

Sorry about that.