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FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

Chris865
Valued Member

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

I guess as the originator of this wild and wonderful thread, I should report my rating and DP.

 

Screen Shot 2020-06-08 at 7.47.38 PM.png

Insights:

  • High installments loans
  • High number of revolving accounts

Data Points:

  • FICO 8, EQ 827
  • < 1% utilization across $60k CL (8 cards)
  • No bank card balances carried
  • No mortgage
  • 1 personal loan (PenFed)
  • 1 truck loan

 




Message 261 of 1,053
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes


@Chris865 wrote:

I guess as the originator of this wild and wonderful thread, I should report my rating and DP.

Yep. All your fault. haha

 

I'll update the board.

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 262 of 1,053
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

EQ FICO Resilience Index - Leaderboard as of June 8, 2020

It's all rainbows, unicorns, comets, penguins, and...uh, chicken strips.

 

*Note about this score: Lower rating (higher number) doesn't mean that person has a bad credit profile in any way. We're in Equiland now...

Member Name

Score

Red Flags

Remarks

Throckmorton's Wife

40

?

EQ 8: 829
LaHossBoss

41

0

1 CO - paid, due to drop off CR in next 2-3 months

5 CAs - 1 pfd CA was deleted this month and still waiting on 1 other pfd to delete, but it is still listed in it's entirety on this pull

1 installment loan - 25% bal/$48 mothly payment

3 CCs - at AZEO, <1% aggregate, 3% individual on non-zero bankcard with $10 payment due. 

7 of 11 defaulted SLs and 2 of 5 CAs are reporting "affected by natural/declared disaster"

I am at 75% CCs / 25% installment loans credit mix

$58 in total monthly obligations reported for May 2020

AoOA 18y 5m | AAoA 9y 4m

EQ 8: 605 | EQ 9: 671 | EQ 5: 641

FireMedic1

45

2

EQ 8: 740 | EQ 9: 827
PicoFico

45

2

Rebuild start: 5/15/19
EW800

46

2

850 FICO 8s and 9s
tacpoly

46

2

 
Thomas_Thumb

48

2

Perfect credit profile.
Tonya-E

48

2

EQ 8: 849
sjt

51

2

Was 52 then 47 now 51. 830+ all FICO 8s

Chris865 [OP]

52

2

FLAGS: High installments loans, High number of revolving accounts
EQ 8: 827, < 1% utilization across $60k CL (8 cards), No bank card balances carried, No mortgage, 1 personal loan (PenFed), 1 truck loan

LaHossBoss SO

52

2

Unpaid CAs, SLs defaulted
angelwingz

53

2

EQ 8 770, AAoA 1yr 8mo, Recent account (4mo)
Trudy

54

1

EQ 8 850, EQ 9 850, EQ 5 817, AoOA 24y2m, AAOA 11y10mo
CassieCard

55

2

Was 53. EQ 8 734, EQ 9 739, EQ 5 727, AAoA 1yr2mo, AoOA 2yr5mo, Recent Accounts (2 @ 3mo), 4 cards with 4% on each one, 4% aggr. $587 to $1149 aggr balance with the same 4% aggr

resulted in losing 2 points (53 to 55).

Now homeless and shoplifting for fun and profit.

CreditObsessedinFL

56

2

Up from 58. One of the flags changed from 'age of revolving accounts' to 'number of revolving accounts' as recent account age passed 3mos.
TMB_

56

2

EQ 8: 771
sarge12

59

2

Serving time in a women's prison. Got pardon. Still won't leave. FICO 8s 819+
Brian_Earl_Spilner

61

2

Flags: Installment balances and Too many revolving accounts. Low utilization, $53 reporting.
NRB525

63

2

All FICO 8's 800+. 6% EQ utilization.
Remedios

63

2

Was 67. EQ 8: 778. $1100/1% aggregate utilization. 1 card with a balance. An extremely high magnetic field around a couch has increased her resilience.

Revelate

63

2

EQ 8 826 and EQ 5 799. Putting it on his dating profile because it says 'Sensitive'. It's going to work.
Birdman7

64

2

Sleeping. EQ 8 800, EQ 9 820, EQ 5 788. AoOA 25yr+
RehabbingANDBlabbing

66

2

 
Dumbee

67

?

 
Kenro

72

?

High 700s across all FICO 8s.

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 263 of 1,053
Birdman7
Super Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes


@Revelate wrote:

@Brian_Earl_Spilner wrote:

@CassieCard wrote:

@Brian_Earl_Spilner wrote:

I got a 61, yo. 2 red flags. Installment balances and credit mix for too many revolving accounts. They don't respect the YOLO.


You now have pretty low utilization now, right? I was thinking of the thread you started about paying down all of your cards.


Yeah, it kind of annoys me because even though all my balances updated, my score flags are for using too much revolving credit?

 

Wat?

 

I'm reporting $53 out of $16,800. It's going to go lower too because I just added $4300 in limits while the last of my balances are zeroing out.


Making a conjecture with very little available information I wonder if it's confusing (terminology wise) using with available credit.

 

Available credit doesn't necessarily mean stability and it's not lost on me that many in the higher scoring brackets (twilight zone Resilience) have larger tradelines and aggregate limits.  If you are looking at a new algorithm don't some of the underpinnings need to change otherwise what value does it have?

 

Do people with high aggregate limits, when this variable is isolated, manifest more risk to lenders in the abscence of income information?  Sort of QED style of course they do, bigger capability for losses and bankruptcy.

 
No debt = low chance for being overextended... I wonder what the average consumer credit limit is, I don't think I have seen that data.  Maybe something to look for later.

 

@CassieCard hah even when your posts don't necessarily drive conversation directly (though rich deadbeat sort of did for this post) I almost always bark with laughter at your turn of phrase.  Thank you!


Yeah I had wondered about available credit as well. And I'm just now catching up on this thread, so if it's been talked about since then I haven't got there yet.

-Our Community’s updated scoring wisdom: Link to Scoring Primer.
-For Negative Reason Codes see: CassieCard’s Score Factors thread.
-ccquest’s workbook to calculate metrics for you: Link to Workbook.

Correct Ag.Util. under 5% all times. (Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.

RIP:

(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 264 of 1,053
Throckmorton
Regular Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

I can tell you based on the differences between my score and my wife's score that this is heavily weighting one or both of:

 

- recent credit (some combination of average age, newer accounts, remaining balance on installment loans)

 

- credit mix (installment vs revolving)

Message 265 of 1,053
Flyingifr
Established Contributor

FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

I have been railing for decades over the inherent unreliability of the "reasons" behind a FICO score, which I consider to be little more thana  simple random number which has very little to do with reality. Now FICO has come up with the "FICO Resilience Index" - a sort of "stress test" of a FICO score. Here is mine.2020-06-12 10_19_56-Dashboard _ myFICO Member Center.png

 

 

Now - let's look at the reasons for my high score (and therefore low resilience): First, let's look at how my Installment Loans affect my Resilience:

 

 

Installment Loans.png

Pretty scary, right? Except for the fact that at the time this score was created BOTH MY INSTALLMENT LOANS HAD ALREADY BEEN PAID OFF AND A $0 BALANCE REPORTED!!!! So, to FICO, a balance of $0  in Installment Loans is a scary thing. Now let's look at the Credit Card side:

 

 

Credit Cards.png

Notice - it does not address the BALANCE owed on Credit cards, just the fact that a high percentage of my remaining debt capacity is eaten up by credit cards. With the payoff of the installment loans all the remaining debt capacity I have is in credit cards, with a cumulative Util of less than 2%. The new score admits that my FICO score is "above average" but still docks me for not having any installment loans. In the two details, please read the sentences that start with "Generally....." - they are identical - so that in the Installment Loan section they are telling me that my Credit Resilience will be better if I have low balances in my Installment Loans, and in the Credit Card section NOT having enough in Installment Loans (hence the "lower percentage of their credit accounts that are revolving accounts" makes me a better credit resilience. BUT.... the fact that I am nearly debt free ($0 owed in Installment loans and Credit Card Util of less than 2%) somehow makes me more suceptible to missing payments in an economic downturn than, say, a person who owes $100,000 on a mortgage.

 

This new score appears to be just one more example of FICO-babble designed to confuse us further.

4/1/2017 EQ 579 TU 595 EX588
9/20/2018 EQ 810 TU 807 EX 795
6/12/19 EQ 820 TU /789 EX 793
12/13/2019 EQ 835 TU 813 EX 810 Finally made it into the 800 club on all 3 Bureaus - only took 25 years.
8/29/2020 EX 776 EQ 761 TU 768 - I paid off my mortgage and car loan and am debt free forever, and FICO threw me out of the 800 club as a reward
Message 266 of 1,053
CassieCard
Senior Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes


@Flyingifr wrote:

This new score appears to be just one more example of FICO-babble designed to confuse us further.


Welcome to this crazy world:

 

coping_with_eq_book.png

28 FICO Scores + FICO RESilience Index + 3 VS3. MTG (Mortgage), AUT (Auto), and BKC (Bankcard) are scores 5,4, and 2 from the top.

Keeper of the Scrolls of Resilience: EQ FICO Resilience Index Score Leaderboard (59 People!)

Message 267 of 1,053
Birdman7
Super Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes


@Flyingifr wrote:

I have been railing for decades over the inherent unreliability of the "reasons" behind a FICO score, which I consider to be little more thana  simple random number which has very little to do with reality. Now FICO has come up with the "FICO Resilience Index" - a sort of "stress test" of a FICO score. Here is mine.2020-06-12 10_19_56-Dashboard _ myFICO Member Center.png

 

 

Now - let's look at the reasons for my high score (and therefore low resilience): First, let's look at how my Installment Loans affect my Resilience:

 

 

Installment Loans.png

Pretty scary, right? Except for the fact that at the time this score was created BOTH MY INSTALLMENT LOANS HAD ALREADY BEEN PAID OFF AND A $0 BALANCE REPORTED!!!! So, to FICO, a balance of $0  in Installment Loans is a scary thing. Now let's look at the Credit Card side:

 

 

Credit Cards.png

Notice - it does not address the BALANCE owed on Credit cards, just the fact that a high percentage of my remaining debt capacity is eaten up by credit cards. With the payoff of the installment loans all the remaining debt capacity I have is in credit cards, with a cumulative Util of less than 2%. The new score admits that my FICO score is "above average" but still docks me for not having any installment loans. In the two details, please read the sentences that start with "Generally....." - they are identical - so that in the Installment Loan section they are telling me that my Credit Resilience will be better if I have low balances in my Installment Loans, and in the Credit Card section NOT having enough in Installment Loans (hence the "lower percentage of their credit accounts that are revolving accounts" makes me a better credit resilience. BUT.... the fact that I am nearly debt free ($0 owed in Installment loans and Credit Card Util of less than 2%) somehow makes me more suceptible to missing payments in an economic downturn than, say, a person who owes $100,000 on a mortgage.

 

This new score appears to be just one more example of FICO-babble designed to confuse us further.


I think the whole resilience score thing is a joke really. But  IMHO they are not looking for a $100,000 mortgage, but rather loans with a very low B/L, just like you get the extra points for the SSL strategy once you get down to 9%. So unless it was $1 million mortgage to start with..., but then it seems like it penalizes you if the payments are too large. 

 

And I think there's simply looking at the percentage of credit cards you have, as you said the more debt capacity you have. I guess they look at it as more likely to occur if the ability is there.

 

So they want nearly paid off loan(s)(with low payments) and a low ratio of cards to loans, it appears. I think 75% has been discussed as a possible threshold. 3:1. I think the majority of us here are all going to get that red flag.

-Our Community’s updated scoring wisdom: Link to Scoring Primer.
-For Negative Reason Codes see: CassieCard’s Score Factors thread.
-ccquest’s workbook to calculate metrics for you: Link to Workbook.

Correct Ag.Util. under 5% all times. (Oldest/avg varies. Estimates above.)
Real world mortgage maxes are: EQ5-818, TU4-839, EX2-844.

RIP:

(Everything said is JMHO and is not endorsed by FICO or MF. I have no affiliation with either, just a grateful member.)
Message 268 of 1,053
Remedios
Moderator

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

Joke, yes.

 

Opportunism, oh heck yes! 

I mean, when's the next launch window for data collected in 2008 with very little similarities to 2019???

 

Wait for Small Pox? Magnetic poles shifting?  Intelligent toasters taking over Wall Street? 

Bubonic plague wouldn't work, because it's curable, but they could use data from 1620 because PANDEMIC!!!! 

 

Make a buck when you can. 

Undead Danny Trejo looks strangely like dead Danny Trejo, who looks exactly like alive Danny Trejo. Thanks, Netflix!
Message 269 of 1,053
Trudy
Valued Contributor

Re: FICO Score Stress Indicators/Indexes

Okay, my bad if I've missed something but I haven't followed this thread in a while. Was at 54, think it ticked up a bit the following month to 56 which is the last time I checked. But had to post as I pulled my report yesterday and just remembered to check this...my score is now 49. 

 

As my # of accounts decreased:

---from 3 rev, 2 loans --> 1 rev, 2 loans

As my UTL decreased:

---AGG CC UTL from 4.64% --> 1.68%, Home UTL from 83.6% --> 81.3%, Auto from 11.48% --> 7.83% 

 

I get more risky as I pay down my balances (well above the amount due) Smiley Embarassed  Yet EQ loves me FICO score wise. Smiley Happy

resilience.png

2020-06-13_10-55-06.png

 

FICO - 8: 03/11/21 AU 8 BC 8
FICO - 9: 03/11/21 AU 9 BC 9
F5,F4,F2 03/11/21 AU... BC...
Vantage 03/11/21
As of 03/01/21:
AoOA - 25Y0M | AoYA – 0Y4M | AAoA – 11Y10M
Open: 11 CC: (1 reporting 2.25% : 0.20% AGG UTL) | 1 PLOC | 1 MTG loan: 64.88% UTL
Closed: 1 MTG loan | 2 Auto loans | (EQ) 2 CC, (EX & TU) 1 CC
INQ: (EQ) 0/24 | (TU) 2/24 | (EX) 1/24
Message 270 of 1,053
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