AoYA 6 month threshold - TU +11 points

[Anonymous]

@Birdman7: I don't have any data on score changes related to AoYA greater than 1 year.

I couldn't even find anything besides vague references to this AoYA 6 month change I am in the process of observing. (Still have the second card to report on the 3rd.)

There is a thread related to AoYA on these forums where ABCD2199 and Thomas_Thumb specifically discuss some of the points you and Revelate brought up:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/AoYA-and-Fico8/td-p/5111983

You can find some more that reference AoYA here:  https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aficoforums.myfico.com+aoya

[Anonymous]

Interesting. I didn’t get any score increase at 3 months, if I make it to August I’ll see if I get one at 6. That’s not an insignificant number but I’m on a BK scorecard so I’m sure it’s probably not going to be as much. 

[Anonymous]

It’s only on clean scoresheets. AoYA is not a factor on dirty scorecards.

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:
It’s only on clean scoresheets. AoYA is not a factor on dirty scorecards.

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It’s not a factor at all? That’s interesting. 

[Anonymous]

@Saeren: Thats the current working knowledge, yes. Rev tested and eliminated it. If you find data that that contradicts, please advise.

[Revelate]

Not a factor at all, the reason code doesn’t exist even... and it’s why I could beat my credit like a rented mule and never take any drops except when I crossed an AAOA threshold when I had a tax lien. This was true on all Classic scores I had access to while I still had the myFICO service.

I see the same behavior still on TU with my 60D. F8 BC and FICO 9 may change that up some but I don’t have regular access to those scores on TU.

On the flip side my EX and EQ files are complaining about new accounts everywhere currently.

[Anonymous]

This one is for @Revelate, Master Observer of EX 2. lol

EX 2 is up +12pts (721 to 733). And check out the disappearing 'Short revolving history'! Probably hanging out at number 5 on the list?

This is EX 2 today. Below is the month prior at AoYA 5 months.

EX 2 at AoYA 5 months below. Check the reasons:

[Revelate]

What's weird and I'm seeing this too:

New Accounts separate from Short Revolving History which sure looks like AOYA on all models TBH.  I see that new accounts reason code in EX FICO 2/3, and EQ FICO 5, wonder how we get that split apart TBH for data.

[Anonymous]

I know that TT on some scoring models has determined that a negative reason code can exist related to AoYA for as long as 5 years.  Kind of crazy when you think about it, although I'd be shocked if the penalty associated with that reason code was worth more than a couple of points.

I do find it a bit odd that AoYA only matters scoring wise on clean scorecards.  I would think someone on a dirty scorecard that has opened an account recently would still represent elevated risk (relative to not opening one) the same way it would for an individual on a clean scorecard.

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

I do find it a bit odd that AoYA only matters scoring wise on clean scorecards.  I would think someone on a dirty scorecard that has opened an account recently would still represent elevated risk (relative to not opening one) the same way it would for an individual on a clean scorecard.

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On my new-to-credit scorecard I'm being compared to people in the future that had a similar profile to mine. In other words, how did someone who has only had a credit history for 18 months and always paid their balance in full end up 2 or 5 years down the road? Probably pretty well since my scores continue to go up regularly.

It could be that the combined CRA data shows that people with dirty scorecards are more careful when opening new cards. Maybe 92% or something never had a problem 5 years down the road.

The credit-modeling logistic regression methods are well known, but without the CRA data, we're all trying to guess which numbers they added up to get a single integer.