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FICO AMA Discussion Thread

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Established Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread

Not to sound ungrateful for all the answers we were given, but I think most of the answers were fairly ambiguous, and intentionally so. 





[2/2019]
Message 41 of 75
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Super Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@Birdman7 wrote:

@BrutalBodyShots wrote: "...I have always disagreed on regarding the penalties imposed from AZ or paying off a lone loan.  I feel I've always sort of been in the minority that those penalties don't bother me and with the absence of TD use I can see their merit in terms of risk assessment."


I can also see their merit. And keep in mind as they said, if there’s no debt ($0 balances), they can’t evaluate your management of it:

“Elizabeth Warren, Senior Product Manager at myFICO: The FICO® Score measures how well you manage your debt. If you don’t have any debt, the algorithm doesn’t have any data about how well you manage your debt. Think of it like being a fast runner. You may be a very fast runner but if you’ve never run any races it would be hard for anyone else to know that you are a fast runner.”

That will change with trended data.


Yes but with all due respect the logic behind Ms. Warren's statement does not stand up to scrutiny.  In none of our reports is there any indication that we've "never run any races". On the contrary, the evidence is there that we've run many races. And the evidence is there as to how well we performed in each of them.

 

Our credit reports detail many many years of credit management history. We've run plenty of races. And every installment loan that's been paid down to zero on a timely basis, and every revolving account which has been paid down to zero on a timely basis, is a race well run.

 

 


Total revolving limits 653000 (575000 reporting)

Message 42 of 75
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Super Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@CassieCard wrote:

@SouthJamaica wrote:


The key takeaways for me were:

1. balances expressed in raw dollars are a factor, but weighted less heavily than balances expressed as a percentage

Yes, that is what they said and I believe it as stated, but why is it that I don't experience much (+3 max under 5% only) of any score change in the entire (0, 9]% range while you do at each 1% step? I just don't have that much excitement down here on this already highly-sensitive, young credit file scorecard.

 

I'm open to the possibility that it's more than just the very large difference in our actual aggregate balance amount being reported. It could be scorecard related based on aging of revolving history/oldest account.

 

I'm going to be on the lookout for someone with your length of history and much lower total credit limit that doesn't see much of a score change in that interval.


Trust me. You don't want the excitement.


Total revolving limits 653000 (575000 reporting)

Message 43 of 75
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Valued Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@jdbkiang wrote:

Not to sound ungrateful for all the answers we were given, but I think most of the answers were fairly ambiguous, and intentionally so. 


To someone with very limited to no knowledge of all things FICO then it might appear that way. But for most folks here especially the regular ones, then every bit of ambiguity can be decoded and deciphered by known and well accepted DPs to arrive at a certain scientific assumption to the very least.

BK7 dc in 01/2011 with FICO8 in the 500s

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HPs EX 2 EQ 2 TU 1
AAoA 5y4m
UTIL 1% - 3%

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Message 44 of 75
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Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@JR_TX wrote:

@jdbkiang wrote:

Not to sound ungrateful for all the answers we were given, but I think most of the answers were fairly ambiguous, and intentionally so. 


To someone with very limited to no knowledge of all things FICO then it might appear that way. But for most folks here especially the regular ones, then every bit of ambiguity can be decoded and deciphered by known and well accepted DPs to arrive at a certain scientific assumption to the very least.


... or perhaps pseudo scientific assumption Smiley Happy


Total revolving limits 653000 (575000 reporting)

Message 45 of 75
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Super Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@JR_TX wrote:

@jdbkiang wrote:

Not to sound ungrateful for all the answers we were given, but I think most of the answers were fairly ambiguous, and intentionally so. 


To someone with very limited to no knowledge of all things FICO then it might appear that way. But for most folks here especially the regular ones, then every bit of ambiguity can be decoded and deciphered by known and well accepted DPs to arrive at a certain scientific assumption to the very least.


IMHO, I doubt that, but we did have some theories/concepts confirmed and some debunked. We are grateful for that. (And of course, the easy questions were answered.) For example, the known and well accepted utilization thresholds from long before I joined were debunked And revolving balances were confirmed as a scoring factor. 

 

8.99% is incorrect. Looks as if the thresholds are 10, 30, 50, 70, 90 and 100% with typical rounding, meaning 9.4%, 29.4%, etc... to remain under the thresholds. 

 

But these guys have proprietary secrets to keep, I understand that. I just dont think the name was chosen appropriately. IMHO, "Q and A with FICO experts" would've been more appropriate due to their limitations. But we are very grateful for what we did learn.

For a collection of our current FICO scoring wisdom, updated as we learn, read the following. Watch the revision dates on the bottom of the first 8 posts as they are regularly updated: Link to Scoring Primer.


RIP:

Oldest/average age varies by bureau. Estimates above.


Updated Oct 2020, unless otherwise noted.

(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)

In order to better answer your questions and record your DPs, please provide your profile stats: Any baddies? Severity and recency? (clean/dirty), Number of accounts, both open and closed on CRs (thick/thin), AoOA? (Mature/young), AOYRA-Age of Youngest Revolving Account (new accounts/no new accounts)? Open/closed loan on CR?
For example, mine is clean/thick/mature/new account, with open loan on record.
If you don't know where you fall, just detail any baddies, your number of open and closed accounts, AoOA, AOYRA and whether you have a loan on record to start.

For utilization questions, list individual and aggregate utilizations, revolving and installment, please.
Message 46 of 75
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Super Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@Birdman7 wrote:

@JR_TX wrote:

@jdbkiang wrote:

Not to sound ungrateful for all the answers we were given, but I think most of the answers were fairly ambiguous, and intentionally so. 


To someone with very limited to no knowledge of all things FICO then it might appear that way. But for most folks here especially the regular ones, then every bit of ambiguity can be decoded and deciphered by known and well accepted DPs to arrive at a certain scientific assumption to the very least.


IMHO, I doubt that, but we did have some theories/concepts confirmed and some debunked. We are grateful for that. (And of course, the easy questions were answered.) For example, the known and well accepted utilization thresholds from long before I joined were debunked And revolving balances were confirmed as a scoring factor. 

 

8.99% is incorrect. Looks as if the thresholds are 10, 30, 50, 70, 90 and 100% with typical rounding, meaning 9.4%, 29.4%, etc... to remain under the thresholds. 

 

But these guys have proprietary secrets to keep, I understand that. I just dont think the name was chosen appropriately. IMHO, "Q and A with FICO experts" would've been more appropriate due to their limitations. But we are very grateful for what we did learn.


I didn't see any discussion of those thresholds, so I would be wary of stating that the Q&A session confirmed some kind of thresholds.


Total revolving limits 653000 (575000 reporting)

Message 47 of 75
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Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:

@JR_TX wrote:

@jdbkiang wrote:

Not to sound ungrateful for all the answers we were given, but I think most of the answers were fairly ambiguous, and intentionally so. 


To someone with very limited to no knowledge of all things FICO then it might appear that way. But for most folks here especially the regular ones, then every bit of ambiguity can be decoded and deciphered by known and well accepted DPs to arrive at a certain scientific assumption to the very least.


IMHO, I doubt that, but we did have some theories/concepts confirmed and some debunked. We are grateful for that. (And of course, the easy questions were answered.) For example, the known and well accepted utilization thresholds from long before I joined were debunked And revolving balances were confirmed as a scoring factor. 

 

8.99% is incorrect. Looks as if the thresholds are 10, 30, 50, 70, 90 and 100% with typical rounding, meaning 9.4%, 29.4%, etc... to remain under the thresholds. 

 

But these guys have proprietary secrets to keep, I understand that. I just dont think the name was chosen appropriately. IMHO, "Q and A with FICO experts" would've been more appropriate due to their limitations. But we are very grateful for what we did learn.


I didn't see any discussion of those thresholds, so I would be wary of stating that the Q&A session confirmed some kind of thresholds.


@SouthJamaica Don't misunderstand, I said it confirmed revolving balances as a scoring factor; it debunked existing known and well accepted thresholds. (Kudos to you for questioning that existing known and well accepted knowledge.)

 

We do however have official clarification on rounding that establishes 8.99% is incorrect as the highest percentage before crossing into the next interval. Speaking of which, it also confirmed utilization is in ranges or intervals

 

Notice my language: I said "Looks as if the thresholds are 10, 30, 50, 70, 90 and 100% with typical rounding." I never said those thresholds were confirmed, but if 8.99% worked, 9.4% seems to be the highest percentage before crossing into the next interval.

 

Confirmation on some things helps us to extrapolate and form new theories on related matters. 

For a collection of our current FICO scoring wisdom, updated as we learn, read the following. Watch the revision dates on the bottom of the first 8 posts as they are regularly updated: Link to Scoring Primer.


RIP:

Oldest/average age varies by bureau. Estimates above.


Updated Oct 2020, unless otherwise noted.

(Forgive typos, mobile.)(Everything said is Just IMHO.)

In order to better answer your questions and record your DPs, please provide your profile stats: Any baddies? Severity and recency? (clean/dirty), Number of accounts, both open and closed on CRs (thick/thin), AoOA? (Mature/young), AOYRA-Age of Youngest Revolving Account (new accounts/no new accounts)? Open/closed loan on CR?
For example, mine is clean/thick/mature/new account, with open loan on record.
If you don't know where you fall, just detail any baddies, your number of open and closed accounts, AoOA, AOYRA and whether you have a loan on record to start.

For utilization questions, list individual and aggregate utilizations, revolving and installment, please.
Message 48 of 75
Highlighted
Valued Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread


@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Birdman7 wrote:


IMHO, I doubt that, but we did have some theories/concepts confirmed and some debunked. We are grateful for that. (And of course, the easy questions were answered.) For example, the known and well accepted utilization thresholds from long before I joined were debunked And revolving balances were confirmed as a scoring factor. 

 

8.99% is incorrect. Looks as if the thresholds are 10, 30, 50, 70, 90 and 100% with typical rounding, meaning 9.4%, 29.4%, etc... to remain under the thresholds. 

 

But these guys have proprietary secrets to keep, I understand that. I just dont think the name was chosen appropriately. IMHO, "Q and A with FICO experts" would've been more appropriate due to their limitations. But we are very grateful for what we did learn.


I didn't see any discussion of those thresholds, so I would be wary of stating that the Q&A session confirmed some kind of thresholds.


Just jumping in for a bit before I return to regularly scheduled deprogramming.....but I'm changing my aggregate utilization chart to use these thresholds from the FICO Score Estimator (not simulator) until something better comes along. They certainly won't hurt anyone that uses them.

 

Maybe it's even more granular, with a few 5% steps? I certainly have a 5% threshold between 0 and 9 on my thin(guessing)/young/[recent & non-recent account] scorecards.

 

FICO Score Estimator - Aggregate Utilization Percentage QuestionFICO Score Estimator - Aggregate Utilization Percentage Question

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Message 49 of 75
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Established Contributor

Re: FICO AMA Discussion Thread

Since there's discussion about how util% affects scores, and to what extent, I've put together this datapoint as an example. Here's a chart showing my util% (orange) compared to my score (average of 5 different scoring models * 3 bureaus each, expressed as percentile ranking) over the last 2 years or so:

 

H6qKM5k

Of course, over those 2 years there were a lot of changes besides just my util%, but it's pretty clear to see that util% and score were pretty tightly correlated. Thought some of you might be interested to see how util% played out, at least for me, in the real world.

    Total Loan Balance: $28k / $70k

    Total SL: $41.2k
Goal cards:



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