FICO Simulators - How Accurate ????

[Anonymous]

Quick question: I was on the EX website today, as I use their monthly service, and my FICO score is 780. It was 790 but I've added about 6 - 8 new accounts and I'm up to 12 INQ's for this year. I'm done apping. Under best recommendation, it says continue to pay my bills on time and at 12 month's, it projects a 52 point raise to 832. If I go 11 month's, it doesn't change my current score of 780. If I go out 24 months it shows 832. The reason I'm asking about the accuracy of these simulators is I'm planning on going mortgage shopping in 12 - 18 month's. In the meantime, my CR's should stay the same, - 1% UTI, and I won't be adding any new debt, CC's, loans, etc... So I assume the bump at 12 month's is based on the INQ's no longer affecting my scores and these new accounts having 12 month's of payment history. My AAOA dropped from almost 13 years down to 5.8 years with all these new accounts. Does a 50 point raise sound anywhere near plausible in 12 month's based on my info above ??? I was just hoping to get to 800, and didn't think 830+ was even possible anytime in the next 3 - 4 years because of the new account's and my AAOA dropping. Any opinions or experiences are greatly appreciated. Thank you !!!!

[Anonymous]

If you are planning on a mortgage in 12-18 months just get in the garden and wait. You score will be what it will be. You are already in top tier territory anyway so its not like 810 is going to cost you anything versus 830.

[Anonymous]

Thank you Norman. I'm not worried about trying for perfect scores or anywhere near 830. To me, having an 800 score is 850, it's an awesome score. I was just wondering how accurate these FICO Simulators are, because to me, at that high a level, I can't see getting a 52 point bump (or anywhere even remotely close) simply by paying on time for 12 month's. I was expecting perhaps a 5 - 15 point raise. Thanks !!!

[NRB525]

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@Anonymous wrote:
Thank you Norman. I'm not worried about trying for perfect scores or anywhere near 830. To me, having an 800 score is 850, it's an awesome score. I was just wondering how accurate these FICO Simulators are, because to me, at that high a level, I can't see getting a 52 point bump (or anywhere even remotely close) simply by paying on time for 12 month's. I was expecting perhaps a 5 - 15 point raise. Thanks !!!

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Well, I would say don't look at the simulator at all. You are already top tier, and your goal is different now. You know you have to stop apping, to let your file settle down and age a bit more. The score will do what it will, but if you stay quiet, it's going to go up. If you have a lump of INQ, it could very well see a jump in 12 months, but only time will really tell. It would be appreciated if you reported back after that 12 months, because you won't be doing any thing rash, and there's a lot of folks here who would like to see what happens after that year, with nothing else changing, when the INQ all hit 12 months, roughly at the same time.

Good luck!

[Anonymous]

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@NRB525 wrote:

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@Anonymous wrote:
Thank you Norman. I'm not worried about trying for perfect scores or anywhere near 830. To me, having an 800 score is 850, it's an awesome score. I was just wondering how accurate these FICO Simulators are, because to me, at that high a level, I can't see getting a 52 point bump (or anywhere even remotely close) simply by paying on time for 12 month's. I was expecting perhaps a 5 - 15 point raise. Thanks !!!

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Well, I would say don't look at the simulator at all. You are already top tier, and your goal is different now. You know you have to stop apping, to let your file settle down and age a bit more. The score will do what it will, but if you stay quiet, it's going to go up. If you have a lump of INQ, it could very well see a jump in 12 months, but only time will really tell. It would be appreciated if you reported back after that 12 months, because you won't be doing any thing rash, and there's a lot of folks here who would like to see what happens after that year, with nothing else changing, when the INQ all hit 12 months, roughly at the same time.

Good luck!

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Yes. My plans include no more apps for anything. I just plan to use the new accounts I have and continue to keep my CR's heading in the right direction. I'll be sure to update the results as I'm quite curious as to the results. I posted this question as I was hoping anyone with a similar file might be able to tell me approximately how much their scores climbed after basically gardening for 12 month's. I just find the simulator numbers to be way off, but I guess I'll find out. I very well could be wrong. I was about the effects adding all those new INQ's and accounts would have on my scores. I anticipated a drop in scores of at least 30 points and as high as 40 or 50 points, but to my surprise, all this recent action, including lowering my AAOA, cost me a mere 10 points. I was completely wrong with that, and I'll be interested to see if I'll be way off in 12 month's. I'll be sure to post. Thank you !!! 

[NRB525]

That is why I have, in my Siggy, the report from the Simulator that if I get to $20k open balances, it says I will be at 812. Getting closer! I should be there by the end of 2015.