How accurate is the Fico Simulator..??

[Anonymous]

I just got a personal loan to pay off most of my Credit cards This is my only installment loan other than the auto loan on my report. My score was 632 before the new loan was added and went to 645 with the new loan and that was the only change. I show with the Fico Simulator that after my balances go from the 38% Utli. to under 10% my score will be between 685-725. How accurate is this and is it usually the upper end of the range or lower end.

Thanks

[UpNUp]

Who knows. Nobody will ever get a handle on it. Two months ago the balance on my Chase PerfectCard went up 123% and my Fico score went down 8 points. Last month when I started charging all my expenses on the card the balance increased almost 1800%. I regained the 8 points. I always PIF.

I paid the last bill before the statement cut so only about $36 will report. It will be interesting to see what happens this month with my Fico score.

So in conclusion, in my opnion, your guess is good as anybodies. Let me know if you figure it out.

[Anonymous]

Anyone with results to compare from the Fico Sim and how close it came to what it told you?

[RobertEG]

The FICO simulator is intentionally vague and limited, for a good reason on their part.

FICO scoring is a closely held trade secret.  If the FICO simulator was comprehensive, it would allow for reverse-engineering of their algorithms, and that just will not happen.

It does not allow you to see the immediate impact of a one month decrease in %util as a single factor.  Rather, it projects the impact of all scoring categories months from now, including the impact of account aging over that period.

FICO is not a one-category scoring algorithm.  You will never see a FICO simulation that allows you to see a one month projection of changes in one scoring category.

It is not inaccurate, just intentially vaque.

When you added the new loan and paid down the revolving credit % utils, the simulator wont show you the immediate effect of these two in tandem on all FICO categories.The new installment loan affected your credit mix, your AAoA, and probably added a new inq to secure it. 

The simulator is a long term reference, and thus is limited in evalautating your real situation.

I dont much stock in it.