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How low will my scores go?

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Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

How low will my scores go?

Made final payment on mortgage a couple weeks ago. No open installment loans of any type on file. Anticipaing a substantial score drop on Fico 8 and Fico 9 as a result. I was hoping to isolate the impact of no open loans but, put a 50% downpayment for replacing windows on a credit card.

 

The card reported a statement balance of $15,670 today on a $18,000 credit limit (87% utilization). Anticipate aggregate utilization will be 18% to 23% with 5 of 6 cards reporting balances.

 

I pulled a 3B report on 10/13 a week after making my final mortgage payment. Unfortunately, the mortgage still showed open with a balance of $1819 remaining. All 6 cards reported balances (snapshot below).

 

Of note, my EX Classic Fico 98 (score 2) dropped to 820 from 842 and the BCE score 2 version dropped to 845 from 867. @Anonymous I received the reason statement "you have too many credit accounts with balances" on EX BCE Fico score 2.

 

3B report balances 10-2020.jpg

Fico 8 and Fico 9 scores still 850 across the board. How low will they go? My guess is 850 =>780

 

Plan to pull a 3B in early November after I am sure mortgage reports as closed. I'll then plan to pull another 3B when balances are paid and aggregate utilization drops below 3%. Hopefully that will provide me with the opportunity to then isolate impact of the no open installment loan impact from elevated utilization.

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 1 of 91
90 REPLIES 90
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?

Congrats on the mortgage payoff!  How long do you plan on carrying that balance on the CC?  Maybe you can pull scores at some other threshold points when paying that utilization down, both on the individual card and in crossing 9% aggregate?

 

I'd imagine your Fico 8/9 scores would land in the 780-790 range with both the loan closed and the utilization increase.  With the utilization brought back into check I think you'd return to 820-830.

Message 2 of 91
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?

Paid down $6k on the card today just hours after the statement had closed per the CSR. Wanted to avoid any potential for a CLD given the state of the economy. As always my timing was off. This Fidelity awards Visa card did ding me with a CLD back in 2009 when we had the last economic downturn. Nonetheless, I am not too worried as that CLD was due to more than 6 months of inactivity on the card.

 

I plan to PIF the card a few days before the due date on the statement. However, I will have the opportunity to look at another utilization level when I charge the final 50% for the windows to the card in mid December. I'm thinking of having the card show a utilization of around 35% with my aggregate utilization under 8%. Perhaps limiting the # cards reporting balances to 3 or 4 which is more typical for me.

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 3 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?

Cool.  I look forward to any numbers you are able to provide.

Message 4 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?

Definitely look forward to the data points!! I’d definitely love to know myself!

And yes, EX2 too many accounts with a balance.

Message 5 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?

And congratulations on the payoff!!!
Message 6 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?

Hi @Thomas_Thumb ,

 

Congrats on eliminating your mortgage, and the drafts from old windows.

 

I had a recent test on a large CC purchase. Did a $35K purchase on a 50K CL card.

The impact: 25-27 point ding on all 3 bureaus.

We paid the $35K. The payment was just updated by all 3 bureaus, and as expected, got back every point.

 

My FICO 8 and 9 scores are all 800-815. I have no mortgage and no installment loans. That reduces many of my older FICO scores.

 

You should get all of your large purchase points back when PIF. I cannot predict the score effects of the removal of your mortgage.

 

Thank you for all of your contributions to these boards.  Your posts have helped me improve my credit knowledge immensely.

 

 


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

Paid down $6k on the card today just hours after the statement had closed per the CSR. Wanted to avoid any potential for a CLD given the state of the economy. As always my timing was off. This Fidelity awards Visa card did ding me with a CLD back in 2009 when we had the last economic downturn. Nonetheless, I am not too worried as that CLD was due to more than 6 months of inactivity on the card.

 

I plan to PIF the card a few days before the due date on the statement. However, I will have the opportunity to look at another utilization level when I charge the final 50% for the windows to the card in mid December. I'm thinking of having the card show a utilization of around 35% with my aggregate utilization under 8%. Perhaps limiting the # cards reporting balances to 3 or 4 which is more typical for me.


Message 7 of 91
HeavenOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Anonymous wrote:

With the utilization brought back into check I think you'd return to 820-830.


I agree. Maybe a bit higher.

 

I have six open cards, three closed cards, and no loans at all. My AoOA is 19 years, 1 month. My EQ and EX AAoA is 8 years, 9 months. My TU AAoA is 8 years, 6 months due to the presence of a closed utility account. And my AoYA is 3 years, 8 months. I have no inquiries, my scores are currently all at their AZEO levels, and it seems that I have little left to gain for aging.

 

These are my scores:

  • Equifax 04 (FICO 5) Classic: 810
  • Transunion 04 (FICO 4) Classic: 808
  • Experian 98 (FICO 2) Classic: 825

 

  • Equifax 04 (FICO 5) Auto: 828
  • Transunion 04 (FICO 4) Auto: 817
  • Experian 98 (FICO 2) Auto: 807

 

  • Equifax 04 (FICO 5) Bankcard: 819
  • Transunion 04 (FICO 4) Bankcard: 842
  • Experian 98 (FICO 2) Bankcard: 845

 

  • Experian 04 (FICO 3) Bankcard: 817

 

  • Equifax FICO 8 Classic: 823
  • Transunion FICO 8 Classic: 815
  • Experian FICO 8 Classic: 815

 

  • Equifax FICO 8 Auto: 793
  • Transunion FICO 8 Auto: 821
  • Experian FICO 8 Auto: 797

 

  • Equifax FICO 8 Bankcard: 836
  • Transunion FICO 8 Bankcard: 832
  • Experian FICO 8 Bankcard: 835

 

  • Equifax FICO 9 Classic: 837
  • Transunion FICO 9 Classic: 821
  • Experian FICO 9 Classic: 823

 

  • Equifax FICO 9 Auto: 852
  • Transunion FICO 9 Auto: 829
  • Experian FICO 9 Auto: 837

 

  • Equifax FICO 9 Bankcard: 847
  • Transunion FICO 9 Bankcard: 833
  • Experian FICO 9 Bankcard: 835
Message 8 of 91
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

Made final payment on mortgage a couple weeks ago. No open installment loans of any type on file. Anticipaing a substantial score drop on Fico 8 and Fico 9 as a result. I was hoping to isolate the impact of no open loans but, put a 50% downpayment for replacing windows on a credit card.

 

The card reported a statement balance of $15,664 today on a $18,000 credit limit (87% utilization). Anticipate aggregate utilization will be 18% to 23% with 5 of 6 cards reporting balances.

 

I pulled a 3B report on 10/13 a week after making my final mortgage payment. Unfortunately, the mortgage still showed open with a balance of $1819 remaining. All 6 cards reported balances (snapshot below).

 

Of note, my EX Classic Fico 98 (score 2) dropped to 820 from 842 and the BCE score 2 version dropped to 845 from 867. @Anonymous I received the reason statement "you have too many credit accounts with balances" on EX BCE Fico score 2.

 

3B report balances 10-2020.jpg

Fico 8 and Fico 9 scores still 850 across the board. How low will they go? My guess is 850 =>780

 

Plan to pull a 3B in early November after I am sure mortgage reports as closed. I'll then plan to pull another 3B when balances are paid and aggregate utilization drops below 3%. Hopefully that will provide me with the opportunity to then isolate impact of the no open installment loan impact from elevated utilization.


Pulled another 3B report today. Mortgage paid off 45 days ago but still not updated to show zero balance and closed status. However, I was able to isolate impact of increase in revolving utilization as I still had 6 of 6 cards reporting balances.

Utilization 11-5-2020.jpg

I had hoped to report a balance of $15,664 (87% utilization on my FIA card but, a $6000 payment ended up getting credited before balance was reported. So, card reported a $9664 balance (54% utilization) - up from $460 (3% utilization). Aggregate utilization increased from $2951 (3%) to $11,005 (13%) - excludes AU card.

 

Up until this test I have never reported over 9% aggregate utilization with all open accounts reporting balances. I previously had a lower limit card report a balance of $3202 (71% utilization) and 3% aggregate UT with no point loss. However, only 4 cards reported balances at that time.

 

At the elevated 13% revolving UT, I was able to drop all Classic Fico scores below 850. My lowest scores ever across the board. The jump in aggregate utilization to above 10% had a significant score impact! That said, I strongly suspect the aggregate balance in $ was a big factor as well. Pasted below are before/after Classic Fico scores (all cards reporting balances both cases):

Fico 3B scores 10-13-2020.jpg

Fico 3B scores 11-6-2020.jpg

The card has now been paid to zero and fewer cards will be reporting balances next cycle. Not sure why the the mortgage company has not updated the loan to report as paid and closed. 

 

Side note: My Fico sensitivity index went from 48 to 57.

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 9 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

Fico 3B scores 11-6-2020.jpg

The card has now been paid to zero and fewer cards will be reporting balances next cycle. Not sure why the the mortgage company has not updated the loan to report as paid and closed. 

 

Side note: My Fico sensitivity index went from 48 to 57.


That EQ 5 score is interesting to me.

All 3 mortgage scores have 'Too many accounts with balances', but EQ 5 has an additional code for 'Number of bank or national revolving accounts with balances' (#23). (See mortgage scores reason differential here.)

 

Yet another data point showing the EQ FICO Resilience Index cares most about balances. Someone with an EQ 850 has a 39 on it right now, and of course balances are very low.

Message 10 of 91
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