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How low will my scores go?

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Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?


@HeavenOhio wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

With the utilization brought back into check I think you'd return to 820-830.


I agree. Maybe a bit higher.

 

I have six open cards, three closed cards, and no loans at all. My AoOA is 19 years, 1 month. My EQ and EX AAoA is 8 years, 9 months. My TU AAoA is 8 years, 6 months due to the presence of a closed utility account. And my AoYA is 3 years, 8 months. I have no inquiries, my scores are currently all at their AZEO levels, and it seems that I have little left to gain for aging.

 

These are my scores:

  • Equifax 04 (FICO 5) Classic: 810
  • Transunion 04 (FICO 4) Classic: 808
  • Experian 98 (FICO 2) Classic: 825

 

  • Equifax 04 (FICO 5) Auto: 828
  • Transunion 04 (FICO 4) Auto: 817
  • Experian 98 (FICO 2) Auto: 807

 

  • Equifax 04 (FICO 5) Bankcard: 819
  • Transunion 04 (FICO 4) Bankcard: 842
  • Experian 98 (FICO 2) Bankcard: 845

 

  • Experian 04 (FICO 3) Bankcard: 817

 

  • Equifax FICO 8 Classic: 823
  • Transunion FICO 8 Classic: 815
  • Experian FICO 8 Classic: 815

 

  • Equifax FICO 8 Auto: 793
  • Transunion FICO 8 Auto: 821
  • Experian FICO 8 Auto: 797

 

  • Equifax FICO 8 Bankcard: 836
  • Transunion FICO 8 Bankcard: 832
  • Experian FICO 8 Bankcard: 835

 

  • Equifax FICO 9 Classic: 837
  • Transunion FICO 9 Classic: 821
  • Experian FICO 9 Classic: 823

 

  • Equifax FICO 9 Auto: 852
  • Transunion FICO 9 Auto: 829
  • Experian FICO 9 Auto: 837

 

  • Equifax FICO 9 Bankcard: 847
  • Transunion FICO 9 Bankcard: 833
  • Experian FICO 9 Bankcard: 835

@HeavenOhio Since you have no loan, AAOA =AAORA. Watch the 9 year AAoRA for me, i have a 9 yr threshold report.  TIA!

Message 11 of 91
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Anonymous wrote:

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

The card has now been paid to zero and fewer cards will be reporting balances next cycle. Not sure why the the mortgage company has not updated the loan to report as paid and closed. 

 

Side note: My Fico sensitivity index went from 48 to 57.


That EQ 5 score is interesting to me.

All 3 mortgage scores have 'Too many accounts with balances', but EQ 5 has an additional code for 'Number of bank or national revolving accounts with balances' (#23). (See mortgage scores reason differential here.)

 

Yet another data point showing the EQ FICO Resilience Index cares most about balances. Someone with an EQ 850 has a 39 on it right now, and of course balances are very low.


Below is a side by side comparison of all Classic scores for the two reports. Fico 9 reacted more strongly than did Fico 8 to the jump in revolving utilization across the board. This could be due to potentially having a larger buffer on Fico 8. However, I don't think that is the case because I have seen TU Fico 8 drop below 850 a few times while my TU Fico 9 stayed at 850. So, my conclusion is Fico 9 is more responsive to changes in utilization than is Fico 8.

 

Fico 3B scores Nov-Oct 2020.jpg

Also of note is the disproportionately large drop in EX score on the older Fico models.

 

Edit add  - For completeness and future reference Industry Enhanced scores are presented in the table below:

Fico 3B enhanced scores Nov - Oct.jpg

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 12 of 91
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?

Below are the negative reason statements I received on my 11-5-2020 report for elevated revolving utilization with all 6 of my open accounts showing balances. I believe the count includes my mortgage but excludes the AU card which had a balance on it.

Fico 8 BCE 11-2020.jpg

Fico 04 & 98 BCE 11-2020.jpg

Fico 9 BCE 11-2020.jpg

Side note:

1. TU VantageScore 3.0 dropped from 828 to 810 due to the increase in utilization.

2. EX VantageScore 3.0 dropped to 810 as well due to the increase in utilization.

3. Ag utilization per VS 3.0 is 11% vs 13% for Fico because VS includes my high CL AU card which was reporting a small balance.

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 13 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

So, my conclusion is Fico 9 is more responsive to changes in utilization than is Fico 8.

 

Fico 3B scores Nov-Oct 2020.jpg

Also of note is the disproportionately large drop in EX score on the older Fico models.


Very nice data!

 

EQ/TU FICO 9 is very sensitive to accounts with balances as well.

These are the changes from 3 of 4 to 2 of 4 reporting a balance. (Full details)

 

8

BC8

AU8

MTG

AUT

BKC

9

BC9

AU9

3

EQ

0

+3

0

+3

+3

+2

+9

+9

+13

 

TU

0

0

0

0

0

0

+16

+16

+16

 

EX

0

+2

0

-2

-2

-2

+1

+1

+1

+4

 

EX 3 gave me +4 at 2-of-4 with a balance compared with prior month at 3-of-4.

 

Then +6pts at 1-of-4 with a balance, and +9 at All Zero - all compared to prior month at 2-of-4.

On this same report, EX 2 went up +11 at 1-of-4, +8 at All Zero.

 

You're definitely right about these older EX FICO models.

Message 14 of 91
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?

Below is a more comprehensive comparison of 3B data sets. Although they span a significant perion of time, change in aging is not a factor when comparing these data sets. The last account I opened was in 2011. I have maintained the same open accounts throughout.

Credit History 2020.jpg

When reviewing this data (2018 to 2017/2020), I noted a peak in Fico 98 (EX score 2, highlighted in green) on the 2018 report. However,  all Fico 04 scores (EQ score 5, TU score 4 and EX score 3) and their Industry Enhanced counterparts all dropped substantially from the prior 2017 report values (highlighted in red). EQ score 5 values (highlighted in blue) were influenced heavily by # of card accounts with balances.

 

My report shows a substantial increase in AU card utilization but, low utilization if the AU card is excluded. My conclusion is that the Fico 04 algorithm is factoring in my AU card account but, Fico 9/Fico 8/Fico 98 versions are not. 

 

The primary variables influencing score amoung these 3B reports are change in # of accounts reporting balances and changes in individual/aggregate revolving utilization. A secondary factor is number of INQ going from zero to one and back to zero on EQ/TU.

 

My file is still showing my mortgage as open with a balance of $1819 remaining. I guess if it never gets reported as paid and closed that's a plus for my scores.

 

Description11/5/202010/13/20204/7/20204/16/20183/25/2017
Ag UT $ (Exclude AU)$11,005$2,951$285$620,$506$354
Ag UT % (Exclude AU)13%3%1%1%1%
High card $ (no AU)$9,664$1,829$165$469$270
High card UT % (no AU)54%15%1%2%1%
AU card UT $$2,658$908$775$5,707$918
AU card UT %8%3%2%17%3%
AG UT $ (inc AU)$13,663$3,859$1,060$6,327$1,272
AG UT % (inc AU)11%3%1%6%2%
INQ by CRA0,0,00,0,00,0,01,1,00,0,0
Accts with bal (no AU)6,6,66,6,65,5,54,4,33,3,3
EQ Fico 8843850850850850
TU Fico 8835850850850850
EX Fico 8846850850850850
EQ Fico 04 (score 5)749764790777804
TU Fico 04 (score 4)806818823801823
EX Fico 04 (score 3)791819830809830
EX Fico 98 (score 2)787820839842839
EQ Fico 9830850850850850
TU Fico 9834850850850850
EX Fico 9842850850850850
EQ BCE Fico 8850878881881887
TU BCE Fico 8862880880891899
EX BCE Fico 8878900900900900
EQ BCE Fico 04743776808786822
TU BCE Fico 04817853858812858
EX BCE Fico 98792845861867864
EQ BCE Fico 9838867873868876
TU BCE Fico 9839869870873879
EX BCE Fico 9844874874878879
EQ Auto Fico 8857878884881887
TU Auto Fico 8861879879882891
EX Auto Fico 8871899899895897
EQ Auto Fico 04778795818807831
TU Auto Fico 04822867872837872
EX Auto Fico 98787832858861858
EQ Auto Fico 9836867878870885
TU Auto Fico 9842871871870880
EX Auto Fico 9856882882886887

 

 

 

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 15 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

Below is a more comprehensive comparison of 3B data sets. Although they span a significant perion of time, change in aging is not a factor when comparing these data sets. The last account I opened was in 2011. I have maintained the same open accounts throughout.

 

When reviewing this data (2018 to 2017/2020), I noted a peak in Fico 98 (EX score 2, highlighted in green) on the 2018 report. However,  all Fico 04 scores (EQ score 5, TU score 4 and EX score 3) and their Industry Enhanced counterparts all dropped substantially from the prior 2017 report values (highlighted in red). EQ score 5 values (highlighted in blue) were influenced heavily by # of card accounts with balances.

 

My report shows a substantial increase in AU card utilization but, low utilization if the AU card is excluded. My conclusion is that the Fico 04 algorithm is factoring in my AU card account but, Fico 9/Fico 8/Fico 98 versions are not. 

 

The primary variables influencing score amoung these 3B reports are change in # of accounts reporting balances and changes in individual/aggregate revolving utilization. A secondary factor is number of INQ going from zero to one and back to zero on EQ/TU.

 

My file is still showing my mortgage as open with a balance of $1819 remaining. I guess if it never gets reported as paid and closed that's a plus for my scores.

 

Description11/5/202010/13/20204/7/20204/16/20183/25/2017
Ag UT $ (Exclude AU)$11,005$2,951$285$620,$506$354
Ag UT % (Exclude AU)13%3%1%1%1%
High card $ (no AU)$9,664$1,829$165$469$270
High card UT % (no AU)54%15%1%2%1%
AU card UT $$2,658$908$775$5,707$918
AU card UT %8%3%2%17%3%
AG UT $ (inc AU)$13,663$3,859$1,060$6,327$1,272
AG UT % (inc AU)11%3%1%6%2%
INQ by CRA0,0,00,0,00,0,01,1,00,0,0
Accts with bal (no AU)6,6,66,6,65,5,54,4,33,3,3
EQ Fico 8843850850850850
TU Fico 8835850850850850
EX Fico 8846850850850850
EQ Fico 04 (score 5)749764790777804
TU Fico 04 (score 4)806818823801823
EX Fico 04 (score 3)791819830809830
EX Fico 98 (score 2)787820839842839
EQ Fico 9830850850850850
TU Fico 9834850850850850
EX Fico 9842850850850850
EQ BCE Fico 8850878881881887
TU BCE Fico 8862880880891899
EX BCE Fico 8878900900900900
EQ BCE Fico 04743776808786822
TU BCE Fico 04817853858812858
EX BCE Fico 98792845861867864
EQ BCE Fico 9838867873868876
TU BCE Fico 9839869870873879
EX BCE Fico 9844874874878879
EQ Auto Fico 8857878884881887
TU Auto Fico 8861879879882891
EX Auto Fico 8871899899895897
EQ Auto Fico 04778795818807831
TU Auto Fico 04822867872837872
EX Auto Fico 98787832858861858
EQ Auto Fico 9836867878870885
TU Auto Fico 9842871871870880
EX Auto Fico 9856882882886887

 

 

 


@Thomas_Thumb awesome data and analysis as always! Thank you for sharing!

 

May I ask why the authorized user account is not counting on 98? Is the credit limit over the cut off?

Message 16 of 91
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Anonymous wrote:

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

The last account I opened was in 2011. The primary variables influencing score amoung these 3B reports are change in # of accounts reporting balances and changes in individual/aggregate revolving utilization. A secondary factor is number of INQ going from zero to one and back to zero on EQ/TU.

 

A review of 3B reports from 2017 thru 2020 indicates my AU account is affecting Fico 04 algorithm scores but not Fico 98 algorithm scores. The AU card is also not affecting Fico 8 or Fico 9 scores.

 


@Thomas_Thumb awesome data and analysis as always! Thank you for sharing!

 

May I ask why the authorized user account is not counting on 98? Is the credit limit over the cut off?


I was a bit surprised the AU card was not in play for Fico 98 (EX score 2) but, it clearly is not.

 

I had thought that the CL for revolving accounts counting on Fico 98 and Fico 04 was $35k. I suspect the limit for Fico 98 is actually less than Fico 04. The AU card is $34.9k and has been at that CL since the account was opened in 1996.

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 17 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?


@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

The last account I opened was in 2011. The primary variables influencing score amoung these 3B reports are change in # of accounts reporting balances and changes in individual/aggregate revolving utilization. A secondary factor is number of INQ going from zero to one and back to zero on EQ/TU.

 

A review of 3B reports from 2017 thru 2020 indicates my AU account is affecting Fico 04 algorithm scores but not Fico 98 algorithm scores. The AU card is also not affecting Fico 8 or Fico 9 scores.

 


@Thomas_Thumb awesome data and analysis as always! Thank you for sharing!

 

May I ask why the authorized user account is not counting on 98? Is the credit limit over the cut off?


I was a bit surprised the AU card was not in play for Fico 98 (EX score 2) but, it clearly is not.

 

I had thought that the CL for revolving accounts counting on Fico 98 and Fico 04 was $35k. I suspect the limit for Fico 98 is actually less than Fico 04. The AU card is $34.9k and has been at that CL since the account was opened in 1996.


@Thomas_Thumb Yes sir that explains it perfectly, the cut off for EX2 is somewhere between $26,000 and $29,000. 

Edit: update we have now learned the cutoff for EX2 is between $31,000 and $34,900.

Message 18 of 91
Thomas_Thumb
Senior Contributor

Re: How low will my scores go?

I logged into Credit Karma today to check on my mortgage status. The loan shows paid in full and closed on EQ but, still shows open with one payment remaining on TU. Interestingly my EQ VS 3.0 score went up 3 points on EQ while my TU score remained unchanged. TU appear to be 3 business days behind on updating their database from my experiences. I'll wait until late next week to pull a 3B which should by then show my mortgage as paid and closed on all three CAs.

 

FWIW - I looked at my WF account to see what they were reporting for EX Classic Fico 9 score and what, if any, reason codes were displayed. Fortunately, unlike reports from FICO, WF does list negative reason statements for classic scores in the 800 - 849 range.

Fico 9 & Fico 8 11-2020.jpg

Below is what WF showed (based on Ag UT at 13%, 6 cards reporting balances and high card at 54% UT):

EX Fico 9 trend 2020.jpg

EX Fico 9 11-04-2020.jpg

All as expected. My mortgage was still reporting as open. However, I had no other installment loans.

The "lack of recent installment loan information" is present because this particular metric excludes mortgages..

Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 809 TU 823 EX 830 EX Fico 98: 842
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 892 TU 900 EX 900
Fico 8 AU:. EQ 887 TU 897 EX 899
Fico 4 BC:. EQ 826 TU 858, EX Fico 98 BC: 870
Fico 4 AU:. EQ 831 TU 872, EX Fico 98 AU: 861
VS 3.0:...... EQ 835 TU 835 EX 835
CBIS: ........EQ LN Auto 940 EQ LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950
Message 19 of 91
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: How low will my scores go?

Excellent information as always thank you!
Message 20 of 91
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