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Scoring of Old Derogs

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TheKid2
Established Contributor

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs

Your questions:
- I have both an EX and a MF sub. In fact I'm sitting on a 3B refresh with EX that I can pull, waiting on when all the COs drop to $0. My next 3B for MF will be 6/15.
- I joined MF in beginning of April and lurked the forums for a few weeks before I started posting at the end of April. So been posting here about a month.
- I'm going to research reporting dates and try to plan out the Util on my opens for the next 3B and match-up based on your advice. This should help us get the full compliment of scores. I hope an EX 3B gives all the same scores as a MF 3B.
 
OK - reset the stage for the EX hit on a CO. My Open Revolvers did not change, listed below. CO #1 reported $0 already, so I removed it for this comparison. Now CO #3 is reporting $0 for EX.
 
The DOFD for CO #3 was 4/2017, so the TPOD would be like 37 months?
 
So just prior to CO #3 going to $0, it looked like this:
 
Open Revolvers (No lates or derogs)
#1 AMEX = 86 / 500 (17%)
#2 LENDUP = 0 / 700 (0%)
#3 CRED ONE = 6 / 1,350 (<1%)
#4 SYNCH = 0 / 1,090 (0%)
TOTAL = 92 / 3,640 (3%)

Closed COs [Past Due] (Balance / Original CL)
#2 = 984 / 1,500 (67%)
#3 = 1,615 / 3,400 (48%)
#4 = 452 / 750 (61%)
#5 = 2,141 / 3,500 (62%)
TOTAL = 5,192 / 9,150 (57%)
 
Scenario #1 - COs are maxxed out, all COs are seen at 100% Util
BEFORE CO #3 dropped to $0 = 9,242 / 12,790 (72.2%)
AFTER CO #3 dropped to $0, removing it from calc = 5,842 / 9,390 (62.2%)
 
Scenario #2 - COs are seen by algos as ACTUAL Util using their balance and CL
BEFORE CO #3 dropped to $0 = 5,284 / 12,790 (41.3%)
AFTER CO #3 dropped to $0, removing it from calc = 3,669 / 9,390 (39.0%)
 
Scenario #3 - COs are seen by the algos with their balance, but with 0 CL
BEFORE CO #3 dropped to $0 = 5,284 / 3,640 (145.0%)
AFTER CO #3 dropped to $0, removing it from calc = 3,669 / 3,640 (100.7%)
 
and just a reminder, here is how my EX scores behaved:
 
EX 8 = 648 -> 653
EX 2 = 633 -> 635
EX AU2 = 678 -> 687
EX AU8 = 648 -> 674
EX BS2 = 613 -> 636
EX BS8 = 634 -> 662
 
Reason codes look to the the SAME.
 

JOINED 4/2020


FICO 8 = 582, 620, 589 / Mortgage = 633, 526, 581


CURRENT PEAK *Thanks to the MF Community!


FICO 8 = 715, 711, 720 / Mortgage = 688, 696, 681

Message 51 of 82
TheKid2
Established Contributor

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs

So it looks like today the CO #3 dropping to $0 hit EQ and TU. I don't have options to look at EQ and TU scores other than FICO 8 via MF. Unless we count FAKO VS3/4.

 

Losing the $1,615 past due balance the scores went:

 

EQ 8 = 660 -> 667

TU 8 = 658 -> 662

 

I think it's safe to say this 1 CO had very little impact to the scores as EX barely moved, too. That would lead me to believe that it didn't cross any significant Util breakpoint.

 

 

JOINED 4/2020


FICO 8 = 582, 620, 589 / Mortgage = 633, 526, 581


CURRENT PEAK *Thanks to the MF Community!


FICO 8 = 715, 711, 720 / Mortgage = 688, 696, 681

Message 52 of 82
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs


@TheKid2 wrote:
Your questions:
- I have both an EX and a MF sub. In fact I'm sitting on a 3B refresh with EX that I can pull, waiting on when all the COs drop to $0. My next 3B for MF will be 6/15.
- I joined MF in beginning of April and lurked the forums for a few weeks before I started posting at the end of April. So been posting here about a month.
- I'm going to research reporting dates and try to plan out the Util on my opens for the next 3B and match-up based on your advice. This should help us get the full compliment of scores. I hope an EX 3B gives all the same scores as a MF 3B.
 
OK - reset the stage for the EX hit on a CO. My Open Revolvers did not change, listed below. CO #1 reported $0 already, so I removed it for this comparison. Now CO #3 is reporting $0 for EX.
 
The DOFD for CO #3 was 4/2017, so the TPOD would be like 37 months?
 
So just prior to CO #3 going to $0, it looked like this:
 
Open Revolvers (No lates or derogs)
#1 AMEX = 86 / 500 (17%)
#2 LENDUP = 0 / 700 (0%)
#3 CRED ONE = 6 / 1,350 (<1%)
#4 SYNCH = 0 / 1,090 (0%)
TOTAL = 92 / 3,640 (3%)

Closed COs [Past Due] (Balance / Original CL)
#2 = 984 / 1,500 (67%)
#3 = 1,615 / 3,400 (48%)
#4 = 452 / 750 (61%)
#5 = 2,141 / 3,500 (62%)
TOTAL = 5,192 / 9,150 (57%)
 
Scenario #1 - COs are maxxed out, all COs are seen at 100% Util
BEFORE CO #3 dropped to $0 = 9,242 / 12,790 (72.2%)
AFTER CO #3 dropped to $0, removing it from calc = 5,842 / 9,390 (62.2%)
 
Scenario #2 - COs are seen by algos as ACTUAL Util using their balance and CL
BEFORE CO #3 dropped to $0 = 5,284 / 12,790 (41.3%)
AFTER CO #3 dropped to $0, removing it from calc = 3,669 / 9,390 (39.0%)
 
Scenario #3 - COs are seen by the algos with their balance, but with 0 CL
BEFORE CO #3 dropped to $0 = 5,284 / 3,640 (145.0%)
AFTER CO #3 dropped to $0, removing it from calc = 3,669 / 3,640 (100.7%)
 
and just a reminder, here is how my EX scores behaved:
 
EX 8 = 648 -> 653
EX 2 = 633 -> 635
EX AU2 = 678 -> 687
EX AU8 = 648 -> 674
EX BS2 = 613 -> 636
EX BS8 = 634 -> 662
 
Reason codes look to the the SAME.
 

Wow, you are doing great for less than 2 months studying up here! Good!, glad you have both EX and MF! Me, too! I think EX gives all except Version 9 and its variants, so meh, few use 9 anyway. Yes, find those reporting dates and manage that please! Awesome! Keep the Synch at 0, because they are known to update at odd times. Would suck to put a charge there thinking it wouldn't report and then they do so outta nowhere.They are funny like that.

 

Scenarios 2 and 3, luckily crossed no aggregate thresholds and couldn't have awarded points, unless they were individual. Luckily the award outweighed any TPOD penalty! Yeah TPOD would be about 37 months roughly, but when was the last update, I gotta go look, see how many days were added roughly.

 

Hmmmm...lemme think of the implications. great job!

Message 53 of 82
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs


@TheKid2 wrote:

So it looks like today the CO #3 dropping to $0 hit EQ and TU. I don't have options to look at EQ and TU scores other than FICO 8 via MF. Unless we count FAKO VS3/4.

 

Losing the $1,615 past due balance the scores went:

 

EQ 8 = 660 -> 667

TU 8 = 658 -> 662

 

I think it's safe to say this 1 CO had very little impact to the scores as EX barely moved, too. That would lead me to believe that it didn't cross any significant Util breakpoint.

 

 



It's not whether the breakpoint is "significant," cuz I think they are around the same for each kind on Score 8. The question would be if and how many it crossed. For example, out of the 3 scenarios, only scenario 1 crossed a aggregate threshold, the first.

Message 54 of 82
TheKid2
Established Contributor

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs


@Anonymous wrote:

@TheKid2 wrote:

So it looks like today the CO #3 dropping to $0 hit EQ and TU. I don't have options to look at EQ and TU scores other than FICO 8 via MF. Unless we count FAKO VS3/4.

 

Losing the $1,615 past due balance the scores went:

 

EQ 8 = 660 -> 667

TU 8 = 658 -> 662

 

I think it's safe to say this 1 CO had very little impact to the scores as EX barely moved, too. That would lead me to believe that it didn't cross any significant Util breakpoint.

 

 



It's not whether the breakpoint is "significant," cuz I think they are around the same for each kind on Score 8. The question would be if and how many it crossed. For example, out of the 3 scenarios, only scenario 1 crossed a aggregate threshold, the first.


Actually looking again, I think that the BS scores saw a nice score boost and the AU8 seems significant, but most of the others like the regular 8s kind of just shrugged.

 

I don't know if you can glean too much from this, but it seems the more I read, the more people THINK that scenario 1 (algos treat them like maxxed out cards) is a leading candidate for how COs with a past due are scored. I don't really know for sure if this helps that hypothesis enough. But as you note, scenario 2 and 3 would not have awarded me points for aggregate Util.

 

As for last update, it definitely has the Report Date and Last Payment Date (this month) for when they updated the balance to $0. Unless the algos are using some other field for TPOD I'm guessing that it starts at DOFD and goes to when it was paid / this month / which is like 37 months.

 

I don't use the Synch card, so no worries about that catching a balance, but the others have some recurring subscription charges (like MF and EX haha) - so I need to watch those carefully. I think the only one in danger is the Cred One, which updated on CK 1st of the month (you gave me the trick to look there). Either way, I will have a couple of cards with a small balance at least.

 

Like I said earlier, I am a bit worried about the last 3 COs (all Cap1) hitting at the same time. But I will worry about the things I can control instead of what I can't. Will do my best to report the scores for analysis.

 

I'm really enjoying everything I've learned from this place. Thanks again.

 

 

 

 

JOINED 4/2020


FICO 8 = 582, 620, 589 / Mortgage = 633, 526, 581


CURRENT PEAK *Thanks to the MF Community!


FICO 8 = 715, 711, 720 / Mortgage = 688, 696, 681

Message 55 of 82
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs

Any changes on reason codes on any of the variants?

Yes, I lean towards scenario one myself. I wish I knew and I think I’m gonna make a post to find out, unless you already know, how many points is an aggregate threshold and an individual threshold usually worth on a dirty card?

Correct, the TPOD would be around 37 months, but what the penalty would derive from is the increase in TPOD. So how many days/months was the TPOD before and after the update in the algorithms eyes.

I’ll have to come back and write another post. I can’t get to the post on this screen that had the last update date prior to this update. But until this update, it was calculating TPOD based on the prior last update date, follow me?

So we should have the positive points from the utilization decrease and the negative points from TPOD increasing. At least that’s what I’m thinking.

Yeah, no need to worry about things out of your control. Hey you’re doing great and we appreciate your contribution. This is an area that, as far as I know, is not completely understood, so we’re learning here, and you’re contributing greatly, so we appreciate it! We'll learn everything we can from the data we get.

 

I'm glad you're enjoying yourself here, I know I love the forum myself. We're sure glad to have you!

Message 56 of 82
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs

OK prior last update was 12/2019. So TPOD only increased 5 months, So I would think that would be a small hit, relatively, if any. And if it’s calculating from recency, the last update has only changed 5 months, so I don’t think that would be significant either.

An account that was regularly updating would make it easier to isolate how the utilization works, but I do not believe a 5 month increase in TPOD/recency would be significant at all. Who knows, it could even be done in six month increments. We know fico loves it’s thresholds and buckets and bins.

As a matter fact, as we progress in our learning of this subject, we will need to determine for sure what the utilization effect is, so that will be able to account for it as we explore TPOD‘s effects.

Obviously we can’t do that conclusively with your case because TPOD did change, but once we know that, it will allow your case to enlighten us even further. Meanwhile we’re learning a bunch!
Message 57 of 82
TheKid2
Established Contributor

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs


@Anonymous wrote:
OK prior last update was 12/2019. So TPOD only increased 5 months, So I would think that would be a small hit, relatively, if any. And if it’s calculating from recency, the last update has only changed 5 months, so I don’t think that would be significant either.

An account that was regularly updating would make it easier to isolate how the utilization works, but I do not believe a 5 month increase in TPOD/recency would be significant at all. Who knows, it could even be done in six month increments. We know fico loves it’s thresholds and buckets and bins.

As a matter fact, as we progress in our learning of this subject, we will need to determine for sure what the utilization effect is, so that will be able to account for it as we explore TPOD‘s effects.

Obviously we can’t do that conclusively with your case because TPOD did change, but once we know that, it will allow your case to enlighten us even further. Meanwhile we’re learning a bunch!

Prior to us opening this dialog and introducing TPOD, I don't think I saw ANYONE talking about it in relation to COs. I've tried to scour these forums about the impact of COs and there really isn't much beyond the general advice to settle the past due balance and attempt to GW them off. That is pretty much the only strategy and advice I can find. It's smart financially to pay off all your debts, but the bottom line is a CO appears to be the most penal derog on a file (excluding CAs, Public Records, etc). So, even without a collection we are talking dirty scorecard until ALL the COs age off (or is GW gone) and for someone like me with multiple COs that is daunting. For this reason I am vested in trying to understand how multiple COs are scored.

 

There does seem to be a pattern with reason codes where they consistently mention "one or more", which led me to think you're being penalized just for having one - the question is how are you penalized and I think you are onto something with TPOD. This is kind of the next logical step once I get all the COs with balances to $0. For instance, are you penalized for the highest TPOD CO only or do multiple COs factor in? Do the algos actually care about the $ figures in your COs because if Scenario 1 is true, the algos most certainly are seeing the CL for a CO to assign it at 100% Util until it is settled? Not sure we can prove any of this, but it will be fun to try.

 

JOINED 4/2020


FICO 8 = 582, 620, 589 / Mortgage = 633, 526, 581


CURRENT PEAK *Thanks to the MF Community!


FICO 8 = 715, 711, 720 / Mortgage = 688, 696, 681

Message 58 of 82
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs

You are correct there’s not a lot about it, but where my understanding came from is from the way @RobertEG explained it in the links that are in the primer under A.3. Aging. You did click those links and read them?

When we started discussing it and I realized I didn’t know, I went and searched and when I found those posts, it made sense and I understood, so I revised the primer and here we are. I had no idea of all that before, I just thought when you paid it off, it made it more recent and probably moved you into the recent delinquency scorecard causing a penalty vs. the utilization offset.

True enough he didn’t use the acronym TPOD, but I think we captured what he was explaining with it: Basically when it’s updated, it realizes the additional delinquency period and penalizes for the increased delinquency period.

But, like you said, what happens when there are multiple COs and different TPODs from multiple COs? Does it just go by the highest? And does the recent “last updated” field reassign to the recent delinquency scorecard? Or does that go by DOFD?

As for the card being maxed out, that’s what I’ve always read is the common forum knowledge, but I’ve never read exactly how it was implemented, which is why I wanted to run the numbers with all three scenarios, but I tend to believe scenario one is the most likely.

You are correct, a CO is as bad as it gets absent a public record or collection. Yep dirty card for 7 years, AFAIK. Just one.

Which raises another question I’m actually curious about. I wonder if a collection puts you in the public record dirty scorecard or if it’s simply the delinquency scorecard?

 

I've still got to go read that 200 post thread!

Message 59 of 82
TheKid2
Established Contributor

Re: Scoring of Old Derogs

Took a while, but as has been usual for me the updates hit EX first. For good or bad, all 3 remaining CO settlements hit at the same time I assume because they were all Cap1. I will make a more detailed post and pull a 3B from EX when it finally hits all 3 CRAs. Here is what eliminating past due balances did to my EX scores. My open revolving Util did not change from the previous update, which I think is good because I am NOT at AZEO, yet. My hope is to get there on the 6/15 update. Note that I have mulitple COs and indicated the TPOD for each of the last 3 that came off.

 

So just prior to the last 3 COs going to $0, it looked like this:
 
Open Revolvers (No lates or derogs)
#1 AMEX = 86 / 500 (17%)
#2 LENDUP = 0 / 700 (0%)
#3 CRED ONE = 6 / 1,350 (<1%)
#4 SYNCH = 0 / 1,090 (0%)
TOTAL = 92 / 3,640 (3%)

Closed COs [Past Due] (Balance / Original CL) - DOFD - TPOD
#2 = 984 / 1,500 - 4/2017 - 37 months
#4 = 452 / 750 - 4/2017 - 37 months
#5 = 2,141 / 3,500 - 4/2017 - 37 months
TOTAL = 3,577 / 5,750 (maxxed out %?)
 
Here is how my EX scores behaved:
 
EX 8 = 653 -> 702
EX 2 = 635 - > 674
EX AU2 = 687 -> 713
EX AU8 = 674 -> 720
EX BS2 = 636 -> 686
EX BS8 = 662 -> 711
EX 3 = 650 -> 686
 
Reason codes now look like this:
 
EX8 Reasons 530.PNG

 

JOINED 4/2020


FICO 8 = 582, 620, 589 / Mortgage = 633, 526, 581


CURRENT PEAK *Thanks to the MF Community!


FICO 8 = 715, 711, 720 / Mortgage = 688, 696, 681

Message 60 of 82
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