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FICO scoring is Psychotic

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Anonymous
Not applicable

FICO scoring is Psychotic

The common wisdom in these boards is that one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down. My score history seems to bear that out. Here is the past week's scoring on my MyFico scores:

 

Date                 CC balance +/-        Score +/-     CRA     Credit Limit Change

 

1/23                        +73                           -6               EQ

1/21                        +73                           -5               TU

1/18                       -127                           -8                EQ

1/17                       -127                           -26              TU

1/16                                                         -7                  EQ             +1,000 to $61,400

1/16                                                         +10              EX              +1,000 to $61,400

 

Please note that my Utilization never goes above 3%, and literally microscopic changes ($127 out of $60,000 is 0.208%) or less that 1/4 of 1% in my credit card balances seem to have outsized effect on my scores, and there is little if any consistency, especially with Equifax - balance goes up by $27, score goes down and balance goes down by $127, score goes down. The same action can have two radically different effects on different bureaus - add a new credit card with a whopping $1,000 line, and the score does down 7 points (Equifax) while the exact same action raises my score by 10 at Experian.

11 REPLIES 11
jamie123
Valued Contributor

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic

Well...This is just my humble opinion...

 

If your siggy is correct and less than 3 years ago your scores were in the 500s but are now well into the 800s that could be the reason. We need more information but I'm thinking that your AAoA isn't too high? Do you have a lot of new accounts?

 

FICO determines scores over a long time period and when you have a short history or thin file it causes these dramatic swings in scores. You need to either thicken your file and/or let it age. Thin files will always react more to small changes.

 

What is your oldest account?

How many accounts do you have?

Do you have installment accounts and a mortgage?

How many credit cards do you have?


Starting Score: EQ 653 6/21/12
Current Score: EQ 817 3/10/20 - EX 820 3/13/20 - TU 825 3/03/20
Message 2 of 12
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic


@Anonymous wrote:

The common wisdom in these boards is that one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down. My score history seems to bear that out. Here is the past week's scoring on my MyFico scores:

 

Date                 CC balance +/-        Score +/-     CRA     Credit Limit Change

 

1/23                        +73                           -6               EQ

1/21                        +73                           -5               TU

1/18                       -127                           -8                EQ

1/17                       -127                           -26              TU

1/16                                                         -7                  EQ             +1,000 to $61,400

1/16                                                         +10              EX              +1,000 to $61,400

 

Please note that my Utilization never goes above 3%, and literally microscopic changes ($127 out of $60,000 is 0.208%) or less that 1/4 of 1% in my credit card balances seem to have outsized effect on my scores, and there is little if any consistency, especially with Equifax - balance goes up by $27, score goes down and balance goes down by $127, score goes down. The same action can have two radically different effects on different bureaus - add a new credit card with a whopping $1,000 line, and the score does down 7 points (Equifax) while the exact same action raises my score by 10 at Experian.


Far from it being "common wisdom", I don't think I have ever heard anyone say that "one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down". I certainly can accurately predict what will push my FICO 8 scores up or down. Your chart above gives only a few of the variables affecting your scores. And your discussion seems to assume cause and effect relationships between things which have no cause and effect relationship.

 

It is true that there are slight differences in the FICO 8 scores from the 3 bureaus. That doesn't make them "psychotic".


Total revolving limits 569520 (505320 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 689 TU 691 EX 682




Message 3 of 12
jamie123
Valued Contributor

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic

I checked your post history and discovered that you have indeed received some great advice here at MyFICO.

 

Your credit file is both young and thin and that is causing your large swings in scores.

 

Just follow the previous advice that was given in your other thread. You need to thicken your file. Sure it might knock your scores down a bit in the short term but 2 years from now you will be golden. We've all been there. You need to make the decision as to if you want high scores that will be knocked around a lot every time you use credit or build a rock solid credit foundation where your scores won't move much when you really do need the credit.

 

This is my suggestion:

 

  • Get an SSL (Share Secured Loan) at a credit union. If your credit union doesn't offer these loans join one that does. Really, if your credit union doesn't offer these types of loans you need a new credit union!
  • Get 2 new credit cards this year and 2 new credit cards next year.

Sit back, garden these accounts and watch your scores climb and become more stable. Remember, don't close any credit card accounts, let them age.

 

Good luck!


Starting Score: EQ 653 6/21/12
Current Score: EQ 817 3/10/20 - EX 820 3/13/20 - TU 825 3/03/20
Message 4 of 12
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic


@jamie123 wrote:

Well...This is just my humble opinion...

 

If your siggy is correct and less than 3 years ago your scores were in the 500s but are now well into the 800s that could be the reason. We need more information but I'm thinking that your AAoA isn't too high? Do you have a lot of new accounts?

 

FICO determines scores over a long time period and when you have a short history or thin file it causes these dramatic swings in scores. You need to either thicken your file and/or let it age. Thin files will always react more to small changes.

 

What is your oldest account?  Open account - 4 years. Paid account 10 years.

How many accounts do you have?  4 credit cards, one mortgage and one loan, all current, never a late payment on anything. I have about ten paid and closed accounts, all paid Satisfactory.

Do you have installment accounts and a mortgage? One of each.

How many credit cards do you have? 4


 

Message 5 of 12
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic


@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

The common wisdom in these boards is that one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down. My score history seems to bear that out. Here is the past week's scoring on my MyFico scores:

 

Date                 CC balance +/-        Score +/-     CRA     Credit Limit Change

 

1/23                        +73                           -6               EQ

1/21                        +73                           -5               TU

1/18                       -127                           -8                EQ

1/17                       -127                           -26              TU

1/16                                                         -7                  EQ             +1,000 to $61,400

1/16                                                         +10              EX              +1,000 to $61,400

 

Please note that my Utilization never goes above 3%, and literally microscopic changes ($127 out of $60,000 is 0.208%) or less that 1/4 of 1% in my credit card balances seem to have outsized effect on my scores, and there is little if any consistency, especially with Equifax - balance goes up by $27, score goes down and balance goes down by $127, score goes down. The same action can have two radically different effects on different bureaus - add a new credit card with a whopping $1,000 line, and the score does down 7 points (Equifax) while the exact same action raises my score by 10 at Experian.


Far from it being "common wisdom", I don't think I have ever heard anyone say that "one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down". I certainly can accurately predict what will push my FICO 8 scores up or down. Your chart above gives only a few of the variables affecting your scores. And your discussion seems to assume cause and effect relationships between things which have no cause and effect relationship.

 

It is true that there are slight differences in the FICO 8 scores from the 3 bureaus. That doesn't make them "psychotic".


This. 

OP - you seem to be on a small campaign, based upon your comments in a few threads lately, to disparage the FICO scoring system, or in the least, report inaccurate assumptions as facts. 

It is true that the FICO scoring system can be a bit mysterious at times, but we are all better served by seeking answers to why scores do things, than just making baseless claims that help no one. 

Message 6 of 12
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic


@Anonymous wrote:

@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

The common wisdom in these boards is that one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down. My score history seems to bear that out. Here is the past week's scoring on my MyFico scores:

 

Date                 CC balance +/-        Score +/-     CRA     Credit Limit Change

 

1/23                        +73                           -6               EQ

1/21                        +73                           -5               TU

1/18                       -127                           -8                EQ

1/17                       -127                           -26              TU

1/16                                                         -7                  EQ             +1,000 to $61,400

1/16                                                         +10              EX              +1,000 to $61,400

 

Please note that my Utilization never goes above 3%, and literally microscopic changes ($127 out of $60,000 is 0.208%) or less that 1/4 of 1% in my credit card balances seem to have outsized effect on my scores, and there is little if any consistency, especially with Equifax - balance goes up by $27, score goes down and balance goes down by $127, score goes down. The same action can have two radically different effects on different bureaus - add a new credit card with a whopping $1,000 line, and the score does down 7 points (Equifax) while the exact same action raises my score by 10 at Experian.


Far from it being "common wisdom", I don't think I have ever heard anyone say that "one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down". I certainly can accurately predict what will push my FICO 8 scores up or down. Your chart above gives only a few of the variables affecting your scores. And your discussion seems to assume cause and effect relationships between things which have no cause and effect relationship.

 

It is true that there are slight differences in the FICO 8 scores from the 3 bureaus. That doesn't make them "psychotic".


This. 

OP - you seem to be on a small campaign, based upon your comments in a few threads lately, to disparage the FICO scoring system, or in the least, report inaccurate assumptions as facts. 

It is true that the FICO scoring system can be a bit mysterious at times, but we are all better served by seeking answers to why scores do things, than just making baseless claims that help no one. 


I am not on any kind of tirade - far from it. But when I see things that seem to be contradictory (like the same event causing two opposite reactions) I ask why. Mysterious is one thing - contradictory is another.

Message 7 of 12
SouthJamaica
Mega Contributor

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic


@Anonymous wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

@SouthJamaica wrote:

@Anonymous wrote:

The common wisdom in these boards is that one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down. My score history seems to bear that out. Here is the past week's scoring on my MyFico scores:

 

Date                 CC balance +/-        Score +/-     CRA     Credit Limit Change

 

1/23                        +73                           -6               EQ

1/21                        +73                           -5               TU

1/18                       -127                           -8                EQ

1/17                       -127                           -26              TU

1/16                                                         -7                  EQ             +1,000 to $61,400

1/16                                                         +10              EX              +1,000 to $61,400

 

Please note that my Utilization never goes above 3%, and literally microscopic changes ($127 out of $60,000 is 0.208%) or less that 1/4 of 1% in my credit card balances seem to have outsized effect on my scores, and there is little if any consistency, especially with Equifax - balance goes up by $27, score goes down and balance goes down by $127, score goes down. The same action can have two radically different effects on different bureaus - add a new credit card with a whopping $1,000 line, and the score does down 7 points (Equifax) while the exact same action raises my score by 10 at Experian.


Far from it being "common wisdom", I don't think I have ever heard anyone say that "one cannot accurately predict what will push a score up or down". I certainly can accurately predict what will push my FICO 8 scores up or down. Your chart above gives only a few of the variables affecting your scores. And your discussion seems to assume cause and effect relationships between things which have no cause and effect relationship.

 

It is true that there are slight differences in the FICO 8 scores from the 3 bureaus. That doesn't make them "psychotic".


This. 

OP - you seem to be on a small campaign, based upon your comments in a few threads lately, to disparage the FICO scoring system, or in the least, report inaccurate assumptions as facts. 

It is true that the FICO scoring system can be a bit mysterious at times, but we are all better served by seeking answers to why scores do things, than just making baseless claims that help no one. 


I am not on any kind of tirade - far from it. But when I see things that seem to be contradictory (like the same event causing two opposite reactions) I ask why. Mysterious is one thing - contradictory is another.


1. Reducing one's aggregate revolving utilization NEVER by itself causes a FICO 8 score drop unless the percentage is dropped to zero.

2. Increasing one's aggregate revolving utilization NEVER by itself causes a FICO 8 score increase.

3. Adding a new account creates multiple factors, which may be weighted differently in computations of the FICO 8 scores:

(a) one or more hard pulls on one or more bureaus (which will only appear in the report of the bureau from which it was pulled)

(b) a reset of 'age of newest account'

(c) a lowering of the average age of accounts

(d) an increase in the denominator portion of the fraction by which aggregate utilization is computed


Total revolving limits 569520 (505320 reporting) FICO 8: EQ 689 TU 691 EX 682




Message 8 of 12
jamie123
Valued Contributor

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic


@Anonymous wrote:

 

What is your oldest account?  Open account - 4 years. Paid account 10 years.

How many accounts do you have?  4 credit cards, one mortgage and one loan, all current, never a late payment on anything. I have about ten paid and closed accounts, all paid Satisfactory.

Do you have installment accounts and a mortgage? One of each.

How many credit cards do you have? 4


 


Yeah, your open accounts are pretty new. You are definitely on the right track! Try and always keep an installment loan open if possible. Use an SSL if you have to. That should give you a boost of 10 to 20 points versus not having one until your open credit cards age.(But really...Scores above 760 are for bragging rights.)

 

You should really consider opening more credit cards though. If you have more cards they will stabilize your scores faster than if you let your current cards age. My scores are pretty stabil in the 800s but I have 11 open credit cards with the oldest being 8 years old. My AAoA is almost 5 years. I have a mortgage and 2 auto loans open. When I opened the last auto loan about 4 months ago my scores lost 10 points at most and I think that I have most of them back already.

 

Building credit scores is a marathon and not a sprint. You need to think about how your credit moves today will affect your scores 5 years from now. Imagine 5 years from now having 8 credit cards that are at least 5 years old. Your AAoA will be bulletproof and it will only get better with time. (AAoA is the toughest nut to crack once you have good credit because the only way to get it is with time.)


Starting Score: EQ 653 6/21/12
Current Score: EQ 817 3/10/20 - EX 820 3/13/20 - TU 825 3/03/20
Message 9 of 12
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: FICO scoring is Psychotic

Yeah keep in mind that if you only have four cards you’re probably constantly also crossing thresholds for number of revolvers with a balance. You’ve got so many moving parts going on and the alerts don’t correlate to the point changes the majority of the time.

Agree with Jamie regarding the approach to get more cards and then let them age, so you have a bullet proof AAOA. And totally agree with waiting a year to get the second set so that you have a higher score when you get the second set because of the return of AoYA points and HP points.
Message 10 of 12
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